Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy tabled the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review (Plan to Protect Ontario) this afternoon.

The outlook, also known as the Fall Economic Statement (FES), is a mid-year checkup on the province’s finances and fiscal projections. It also provides the government with an opportunity to highlight its key priorities, announce new policy measures and adjust its course. 

The FES arrives at a critical juncture for Ontario’s economy. Following a year of escalating uncertainty amid President Donald Trump’s tariffs that have directly targeted Ontario workers in key provincial industries, Minister Bethlenfalvy’s update serves less as a platform for new spending commitments and more as a confirmation of staying the course.

The central political message is that the government’s responsible fiscal management has positioned the province for continued economic growth. It is a continuation of direction and fiscal control themes of Budget 2025 earlier this year, and an attempt by the government to position itself as a steady hand at the economic wheel by balancing targeted investments in housing, healthcare, job protection, and trade diversification with its commitment to return to balance by 2027–28.

So what comes next? Stakeholders should be focused on their pre-budget advocacy in advance of the 2026 Ontario budget. Today’s release didn’t specify a date for formal pre-budget submissions to launch on the ministry’s website but noted a portal would open up soon.

What’s new:

• Balance the budget by 2027–28 with a $200M surplus
• Current deficit is 1% of GDP
• Additional $100M over three years (bringing total to $150M) for the Ontario Together Trade Fund to help SMEs diversify into new markets and strengthen trade resiliency
• Develop the second and third streams of the $4B Protecting Ontario Account to transition away from overreliance on U.S. trade relationships, increase productivity and invest in domestic supply chains
• Remove the 8% provincial portion of the HST for first-time home buyers, up to $1M
• $1.1B over three years to strengthen home care services and support the Hospital to Home (H2H) program
• Increase regional acute care capacity at Halton Healthcare Services