ON Election 2025
What you need to know
February 28, 2025
Last night, Premier Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario won their third straight majority government with 80 seats. He was also able to increase his share of the popular vote by almost 240,000 votes compared to the 2022 results.
Ford called the snap election in late January, seeking a renewed mandate to address the uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. The Premier stuck to his ‘Protect Ontario’ messaging, with all policy commitments tied to either the province’s tariff response or the economy more broadly. While there were a few campaign missteps that threatened to take the Tories off message, Ford’s desired ballot box question remained intact, by virtue of President Trump’s persistent threat of tariffs that dominated the election period.
The opposition NDP and Liberals tried to disrupt the campaign by drawing attention to the Premier’s record on housing and healthcare, in addition to shining light on controversies – but they failed to meaningfully break through.
Contrary to concerns about the timing of the snap election, according to Elections Ontario, voter turnout increased and surpassed the number of electors that cast a ballot in 2022.
The Opposition Parties
With the election result widely expected, the real race was for the title of the Official Opposition. Polls heading into election day suggested that the Ontario Liberals would be able to leapfrog the NDP. While pollsters were right on the popular vote, the efficiency and concentration of NDP voters meant that Marit Styles would return as the Leader of the Official Opposition.
For the Liberals, after seven years of being unable to make gains, they received official party status with 14 seats. It was bittersweet as their leader, Bonnie Crombie, lost her race in Mississauga East-Cooksville. Despite Crombie’s insistence that she will stay on as party leader, it will be a period of reflection for the Ontario Liberals as this is now the third time their leader did not secure his or her own seat. One silver lining? The OLP successfully secured 30 per cent of the popular vote, which could be indicative of an improving brand for the party in Ontario.
It was status quo for Mike Schreiner and the Green Party as he retained his Guelph seat at Queen’s Park. The Greens also spent a lot of time and resources in Kitchener Centre to return Aislinn Clancy to the Legislature, a seat won in a by-election in 2023. Unfortunately for the Ontario Greens, their efforts to flip the Tory-held riding of Parry Sound-Muskoka again fell short.
Key Wins & Losses
- Ajax: A tight race between PC incumbent Patrice Barnes and Liberal Rob Cerjanec came down to the wire with the Liberals picking up the seat by just 331 votes.
- Algoma-Manitoulin: This riding came into play when Michael Mantha was expelled from the NDP caucus in 2023. Mantha still sought re-election this time, but it was PC candidate Bill Rosenberg that won with 41 percent of the vote.
- Mississauga East-Cooksville: Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie wanted to run in Mississauga, where she served as Mayor, and the forced resignation of former PC minister Kaleed Rasheed opened up a riding. However, she was unable to take advantage of no incumbent and lost to PC candidate Silvia Gualtieri, Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown’s mother-in-law.
- Nepean: After losing his first campaign to Lisa MacLeod in 2022, Tyler Watt returned as the Ontario Liberal candidate and cruised to victory over PC Alex Lewis.
- Haldimand-Norfolk: Independent incumbent Bobbi Ann Brady defeated PC candidate Amy Martin despite a heavy push from the Tories to try and flip that seat.
- Etobicoke-Lakeshore: In a rematch from 2022, Liberal candidate Lee Fairclough, who fell 800 votes short in her first bid, defeated PC incumbent Christine Hogarth.
- Sault Ste. Marie: The retirement of PC minister Ross Romano and the de-rostering of 10,000 patients from a health clinic in Sault Ste. Marie made this a very competitive race between the NDP and the prevailing PCs, with only 118 votes separating the two.
Next Steps
The first step for Premier Doug Ford will be to review his slate of candidates and decide if he needs to change his cabinet before the return of the Legislature. All signs point to the Legislature returning fairly quickly. The Premier will want to return to work with a Throne Speech and table a budget in the weeks ahead which will largely echo the promises made on the campaign trail. All of Ford’s plans may change depending on what President Trump decides to do with tariff deadlines looming.
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