Election 2025
Overview & Analysis
The 2025 federal election is over. Canadians cast their ballots in large numbers – including record-breaking turnout during advance polls. While final ballot counts are outstanding in many ridings, the Liberals will form a government that may be just a few seats shy of a majority.
The fact that this result was effectively inconceivable mere months ago attests to the seismic shift that has taken place in the political landscape and in Canadian public opinion. While 2025 began with “change” as the clear ballot box question, driven by voters’ preoccupation with affordability and the cost of living, U.S. President Donald Trump’s unrelenting threats and attacks on Canada’s economy and sovereignty upended the political discourse.
Political rookie Mark Carney will lead a government in the House of Commons, held to account by a strengthened Conservative caucus. The Conservatives made significant gains in yesterday’s election, despite leader Pierre Poilievre losing his own seat after 21 years in office. The Bloc Québécois return to Ottawa with a reduced seat count. Meanwhile, New Democrats have lost official party status, after seeing their voter support crater and their leader Jagmeet Singh lose his own seat.
Onward
Barring major upsets in the final ballot counts, expect to see Canada’s political dialogue shift very quickly to other pressing issues – namely, the economy, and President Trump’s trade war.
The new Carney Liberal government will want to demonstrate swift and decisive action to deliver on its campaign commitments. Parliament is likely to resume sitting in short order, with a Speech from the Throne and a 2025 budget tabled in the Commons soon after. Other milestones to watch for: Carney’s first appearance in the House and first Question Period, and world leaders flocking to Kananaskis for the G7 Leaders’ Summit in June.
Against this backdrop, we’ll be watching closely to see how the balance of power settles in Parliament. Party caucus compositions, as well as the election of a Speaker, will factor into these complex dynamics, and ultimately influence the Liberals’ approach to governing.
Thank you, next
An NDP leadership race will soon be underway to replace Jagmeet Singh, who resigned last night after losing his seat in the House. This was Singh’s third campaign as party leader.
While the Bloc Quebecois retained its status as the third-largest party in Parliament, they are projected to lose several seats. Still, leader Yves-François Blanchet intends to stay on, and appears to have the support of his caucus.
One of the more interesting questions will be the Conservative Party’s approach to Parliament. While the party gained seats this election, they no longer have a leader in the House. Should Pierre Poilievre remain in his job as leader, the Conservatives will need to craft a creative approach to keeping him visible without the opportunities afforded by Question Period and speeches in the Commons.
Results
Rookies to Watch
The 2025 federal election has introduced a new cohort of high-profile rookies who are poised to make their mark on Canadian politics.
Here are some of the standout wins:
Tom Osborne (Liberal - Cape Spear)
A veteran of Newfoundland and Labrador politics, he has led the provincial ministries of finance, health, justice, education, labour, environment and conservation, and Service NL.
Carlos Leitão (Liberal - Marc-Aurèle-Fortin)
A former Quebec MNA and provincial finance minister.
Claude Guay (Liberal - LaSalle-Émard-Verdun)
Former CEO of IBM Canada.
Evan Solomon (Liberal - Toronto Centre)
The former political journalist and broadcaster made a high-profile jump into politics after years of covering Parliament Hill.
Tim Hodgson (Liberal - Markham–Thornhill)
The former President and CEO of Goldman Sachs Canada during Carney’s time with the corporation, Hodgson was also previously an advisor to Carney at the Bank of Canada.
Gregor Robertson (Liberal - Vancouver Fraserview–South Burnaby)
The former mayor of Vancouver and climate advocate returns to public service federally.
Billy Morin (Conservative - Edmonton Northwest)
Former Chief of Enoch Cree Nation.
Ellis Ross (Conservative - Skeena-Bulkley Valley)
A prominent Indigenous leader and former BC Minister of Natural Gas Development and Minister Responsible for Housing under BC Liberal premier Christy Clark.
Ridings We Watched
Key Upsets and Surprises in the 2025 Federal Election
Several ridings stood out for producing surprising outcomes that could reshape the political map. A handful of unexpected flips and tight races had outsized impacts on each political party.
Among the most notable surprises:
Carleton
Pierre Poilievre lost his seat to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy.
Burnaby Central
The LPC’s Wade Chang won, with incumbent MP and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh coming in third.
South Shore—St. Margarets
The Liberals flipped this riding with Jessica Fancy-Landry defeating CPC incumbent Rick Perkins.
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj
This redistributed riding elected the BQ’s Alexis Deschênes, defeating former Liberal Cabinet Minister Diane Lebouthillier.
Hamilton Centre
Liberal candidate Aslam Rana won this riding from the NDP’s Matthew Green in a three way race.
Toronto—St. Paul's
The LPC’s Leslie Church won the seat after losing last year’s by-election to Conservative Don Stewart.
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
The Liberals regained a seat in Saskatchewan after being shut out of the province for six years. Former NDP provincial cabinet minister Buckley Belanger was elected to the federal seat after serving three decades in the provincial legislature.
Calgary Confederation
While the Liberals lost their lone Calgary incumbent, George Chahal (Calgary McKnight), they picked up Calgary Confederation in a tight race that saw the Liberals’ Corey Hogan defeat Conservative Jeremy Nixon – a former UCP MLA in the Alberta Legislature.
Vancouver Island
While the Island had been a bastion of NDP support the party retained only one of the six seats it held going into the election. The Liberals picked up both Victoria and Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke from the NDP – the first seats they’ve held on the island in 20 years.
Regional Dynamics
LPC Resurgence in Atlantic Canada: A few months ago, the Liberals were staring down a near-wipeout in Atlantic Canada. In the face of President Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty and our economy, Atlantic Canadians voted to rebuild the Liberal Atlantic fortress. The collapse of NDP support saw that party’s vote splinter to both the Conservatives and the Liberals. While the Conservatives exceeded expectations, picking up seats on the island of Newfoundland and in New Brunswick, two CPC incumbents lost their seats in Nova Scotia. The Liberals may have been hoping a few more Atlantic seats would ease its path to a majority, but the results are a remarkable reversal of fortune in a region that had all but rejected the red team at the start of the year.
Quebec: Liberals performed well in Quebec at the expense of the BQ. Leader Yves-François Blanchet appeared successful in coaxing supporters back to the party following the Leaders’ debates and after many accessible BQ voters had put their early support behind the Liberals. Blanchet’s message was that Carney’s Liberals had a comfortable margin already to defeat the Conservatives, and that it was therefore better for Quebec to seek more BQ representation and a chance at holding the balance of power in the House.
905: Conservatives made a strong showing in the 905 on Monday, picking up seats. This surge came despite repeated disparaging comments from Ontario Premier Doug Ford and his team, who openly questioned Team Poilievre’s approach to the campaign. These Ontario wins were a key factor in preventing the Liberals from reaching a majority of seats in the House of Commons, though final counting of votes leaves the final seat count unconfirmed.
Play for Alberta: The Conservatives were able to strengthen their hold in Alberta, increasing their representation mostly due to the addition of new ridings in the province. The Liberals both lost and gained a seat in Calgary, and held their Edmonton seat.
British Columbia: Canada’s westernmost time zone yielded some of the most dynamic races on Election Day. Liberals and Conservatives both gained seats, at the expense of the NDP.
Next Steps
Mark Carney said after his March 28 bilateral call with President Trump that the president agreed to sit down with the winner of the Canadian election and begin comprehensive negotiations on a new economic and security partnership.
The expected date for the return of the election writs is Monday, May 19. The writs officially confirm who was elected. The chief electoral officer will publish a notice in the Canada Gazette with the names of all the members of parliament who were officially elected. Translation: the House of Commons is highly unlikely to reconvene before this date.
The prime minister will have an opportunity to make changes to his cabinet following the election. There were a number of new Liberal MPs elected (see our Rookies to Watch section) who could be contenders for his front bench. Liberal sources told the Globe and Mail to expect a new cabinet within two weeks of the election, with a total number of no more than 30 members. Possible new faces include former Quebec finance minister Carlos Leitão, ex-Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson, and former Delta Chamber of Commerce executive director Jill McKnight in B.C.
Parliament will be summoned by a proclamation issued by the governor general on the advice of the prime minister. The first item of business will be the election of a speaker. Once a speaker is elected, the House suspends until the time fixed for the Speech from the Throne.
The new session of Parliament will be formally opened by the reading of the Speech from the Throne, by either the monarch or the governor general. This Speech traditionally outlines the government’s key priorities and legislation it intends to bring forward. The speech will involve the Liberals’ first test of confidence in the new Parliament.
Mark Carney will have the first shot at forming a government. He won a plurality of seats but, as of Tuesday morning, holding less than a majority of seats means he will need to work with other parties to command the confidence of the House, enact his agenda and stay in power.
Newly elected members must swear or affirm allegiance to the Crown before taking their seats in the House. This is usually done on an individual basis at the convenience of the member after Parliament has been recalled.
Carney’s government is likely to move quickly to draft and present a budget in advance of the House summer adjournment. The budget is an opportunity to follow through on campaign commitments such as the proposed middle class tax cut and removing barriers to internal trade. As always, any new major spending measures will impact the country’s fiscal outlook and will provide an early opportunity for clashes between government and opposition parties.
Canada is the host country for all G7 ministerial meetings in 2025. The G7 Leaders’ Summit will be held in Kananaskis, Alberta this June. The summit will see heads of government, including President Trump, head to Alberta, and the prime minister will have a major opportunity to display his leadership on the world stage.
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The Results Are In
170
143
22
7
1
Liberal (170)
Conservative (143)
Bloc (22)
NDP (7)
Green (1)
