BC Goes Blue, Carney’s Numbers Hold True, and Canada Hosts the EU
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
October 26, 2026
9 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- British Columbia has turned blue following Saturday’s provincial election. Lorne Doerkson and the Conservative Party of British Columbia have formed a majority government, ousting David Eby’s New Democrats after nine years in office. It is the first time conservatives have led a majority government in BC in nearly a century. Eby, who called a snap election a few weeks ago, signalled his resignation as party leader on Saturday night.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney, premiers and First Nations representatives will gather in Ottawa today for the First Nations–First Ministers’ Meeting. The meeting comes amid First Nations concerns about Ottawa’s major projects agenda, including Bill C-39.
- Prime Minister Carney will play host to a number of international visitors this week. On Monday and Tuesday, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi will visit Ottawa to discuss enhanced cooperation between Canada and the UAE. On Thursday and Friday, the Prime Minister will travel to Montreal where he will host the Canada-European Union Summit, building on previous strategic partnerships in security, defence, AI and more.
- In an interview with CTV Question Period, India’s High Commissioner to Canada Dinesh K. Patnaik said he is “extremely confident” a Canada-India trade deal will be reached before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s December 11 to 12 visit to Canada, adding that the two countries are working on a tariff rate quota for Canadian lentils and pulses.
- Following the unofficial results of the Alberta referendum, Premier Danielle Smith said there will be no second separation referendum while she is premier. In Ottawa, Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will work with Alberta, including on issues of immigration. Elections Alberta will release official referendum results on Thursday, October 29.
- Last Thursday, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly gave Stelco owner Cleveland-Cliffs 15 days to reverse the Stelco layoffs or face court action under the Investment Canada Act. This puts the deadline in early November. Joly said that no act of god or change in market conditions can relieve Cleveland-Cliffs of the commitments it made to Canada.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney concluded his first official visit to Türkiye on Friday, announcing a strategic partnership with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan covering trade, defence and energy. The first round of free-trade negotiations will take place in Ankara from November 30 to December 4, while new agreements will expand defence industry partnerships, energy cooperation and air travel.
- The House legislative committee on Bill C-39, the Building Canada Strong Act, has a 5 p.m. Thursday, October 29 deadline for amendments, with clause-by-clause study to follow the week of November 2. Canadian Labour Congress President Bea Bruske told the committee the bill’s expanded strike-ending powers are “an enormous gamble,” while Business Council of Alberta President Adam Legge urged MPs to support “speedy passage.”
- Canada’s chief trade negotiator Janice Charette said on Thursday that tariff-free Canada-U.S. trade is not returning, with Ottawa now seeking the lowest possible tariffs across the broadest range of goods. Her comments follow CBC reporting that Canadian officials have told industry groups not to expect a deal before the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, with sources saying substantive negotiations remain stalled as the White House focuses on the campaign.
- The Bank of Canada is set to release its next Interest Rate Announcement and Monetary Policy Report Wednesday morning at 9:45 ET. Though Governor Tiff Macklem recently remarked that inflation may soon spread behind high energy costs, most experts continue to predict the Bank will opt to hold rates in place this week.
- Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, will begin an official visit to Canada today.
- At a midterm rally stop on Sunday, US President Donald Trump mused that the ongoing tariff dispute with Canada may soon end. This builds on the removal of some tariffs on Canadian goods last week, largely viewed as an assist to Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine in support of her re-election campaign.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- In last week’s weekly statement, Arielle Kayabaga said the House will resume second reading debate on Bill C-40 today. Tuesday will be an allotted day, and the House will consider Bill C-34 on Wednesday and Thursday. She also noted that the House will resume debate on Motion No. 10, regarding the tenth report of the Standing Committee on Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities (HUMA), on Tuesday, October 27.
- Later today, the house will continue with a second reading of C-264, An Act to repeal certain restrictions on shipping
- Bill C-39, the Building Canada Strong Act, remains before the legislative committee established to study it following second reading on October 8.
- Bill C-31, the Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 2, remains before the Standing Committee on Finance, which will hear from Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon today.
Committee Updates
- Today, FINA will discuss Bill C-31, the Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 2. Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon will appear alongside departmental officials.
- Today, ETHI will continue its statutory review of the Lobbying Act, hearing from Commissioner of Lobbying Nancy Bélanger.
- Today, HESA will hear witnesses on the opioid epidemic and toxic drug crisis in Canada, including representatives from the Canadian Centre on Substance Use and Addiction and the Canadian Mental Health Association
- Today, RNNR will continue its study of Canada’s Nuclear Future, hearing from the Canadian Nuclear Association, Canadian Nuclear Laboratories, academic experts and Hatch.
- Today, LANG will meet in camera to consider draft reports on regulations governing French in federally regulated private businesses and the minority-language education continuum.
- Today and Wednesday, FEWO will hear witnesses on the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Women, Girls and 2SLGBTQIA+ Individuals. Today’s meeting will also include in-camera consideration of its draft report on the Abuse and Financial Vulnerability of Senior Women.
- Today, FOPO will continue hearing witnesses on Atlantic salmon populations, including representatives from Fort Folly First Nation, conservation organizations, fishing guides and a scientist.
- Today, JUST will hear witnesses on Bill C-223, which would amend the Divorce Act. Witnesses include legal and academic experts and representatives from the Canadian Bar Association.
- Today, NDDN will continue its study of Inflection Point 2025 and the Modernization of the Canadian Army, hearing from retired lieutenant-generals Stuart Beare and Michel Maisonneuve.
- Today, PACP will hear witnesses on the Public Accounts of Canada for 2024 and 2025. It will also meet in camera to consider draft reports on modernizing the federal pay system and the First Nations and Inuit Policing Program.
- Today, ACVA will hear witnesses on Civilian Recognition of Military Skills, including representatives from the Nova Scotia Apprenticeship Agency, the Veterans Legal Assistance Foundation, the City of Ottawa Veterans Task Force and Helmets to Hardhats.
- Today, SDIR will examine the Global Impacts of Artificial Intelligence on Human Rights Movements.
- On Tuesday and Thursday, HUMA will hear witnesses on Food Price Inflation and the National School Food Program.
- On Tuesday, PROC will continue studying Artificial Intelligence and Canada’s Democratic Institutions.
- On Tuesday, SRSR will meet in camera to consider draft reports on artificial intelligence and private sector investment in research and development in Canada.
- On Tuesday, AGRI will meet in camera to consider its draft report on Business Risk Management Programs in Canada’s Agriculture Sector and plan future business.
- On Tuesday, CHPC will meet in camera to consider draft reports on the journalism and media sectors and creative and performance spaces across Canada. On Thursday, it will examine Bill S-211, which would establish a national framework on sports-betting advertising.
- On Tuesday, CIMM will continue studying Attracting and Empowering Global Talent to Strengthen Canada’s Economy.
- On Tuesday, INAN will discuss Affordability Challenges in Northern Canada. Northern and Arctic Affairs Minister Rebecca Chartrand will appear for one hour, with departmental and Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency officials also scheduled.
- On Tuesday, CIIT will receive an in-camera briefing on North American customs brokers and freight forwarders.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-38, An Act to amend the Excise Tax Act (extension of the federal fuel excise tax relief), remains at second reading in the Senate, as do Bill S-203, An Act to prohibit the promotion of alcoholic beverages; Bill S-251, An Act to establish a national strategy to end energy poverty; and Bill S-252, An Act to amend the Criminal Code (consent to pornographic material).
- Bill C-22, An Act respecting lawful access, passed second reading in the Senate last Thursday, and was referred to the Standing Senate Committee on National Security, Defence and Veterans Affairs.
Committee Updates
- Today, CSCF will examine the subject matter of Bill C-39, the Building Canada Strong Act. Witnesses include departmental officials, Canadian Labour Congress President Bea Bruske, CUPE President Mark Hancock, Unifor President Lana Payne, Teamsters representatives and First Nations leaders.
- Today, SECD will study defence procurement in the context of Canada’s commitment to increase defence spending. Secretary of State for Defence Procurement Stephen Fuhr will appear for one hour alongside Defence Investment Agency CEO Doug Guzman and officials.
- Today, RIDR will hear witnesses on Bill S-235, respecting the National Strategy to Combat Human Trafficking. It will also meet in camera to consider its draft report on artificial intelligence, human rights and economic security.
- Today, OLLO will examine proposed regulations on the use of French in federally regulated private businesses.
- On Tuesday, NFFN will examine the subject matter of Bill C-31, the Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 2. It will hear from the chairs of nine Senate committees that studied portions of the bill.
- On Tuesday and Thursday, AGFO will continue studying the role of agriculture and agri-food in food security.
- On Tuesday, ENEV will meet in camera to consider its draft report on Newfoundland and Labrador’s offshore petroleum industry.
- On Thursday, POFO will examine commercial fisheries licensing on Canada’s Pacific Coast and the independence of commercial inshore fisheries in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, including owner-operator protections.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- On Sunday, Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne indicated Canada and the UK would work on a cooperation framework for the Multilateral Defence Mechanism and the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank (DSRB), which will be headquartered in Canada. This follows considerable work from Canada to have the UK contribute to the DSRB. Instead, the two funding mechanisms will remain distinct.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced an $8.7-billion joint package on Wednesday to support industries affected by U.S. tariffs. The plan includes $5.22 billion over five years for steel, $2.5 billion over two years for automotive capital projects and up to $1 billion in federal funding for roads into the Ring of Fire. Ottawa will also hold vehicle emissions standards at 2026 levels through 2029, while the two governments establish steel and automotive task forces.
- The U.S. Embassy accused Canadian officials of seeking to influence the November 3 American midterm elections, citing proposed retaliatory tariffs targeting Republican states and Ontario’s anti-tariff advertising. Prime Minister Mark Carney rejected the allegations on Friday, saying they had “no merit” and expressing disappointment with U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra.
- Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne announced Tuesday that the federal government will table Budget 2026 on Thursday, November 5. Ottawa says the budget will focus on attracting investment, advancing major projects, strengthening economic security and making life more affordable.
- Military officials said Thursday that a live-grenade training exercise sparked the October 17 fire at CFB Wainwright that killed four Canadian Armed Forces members. High winds spread the fire rapidly through the training area, and 27 people remained hospitalized as of Thursday. The incident has prompted investigations into the circumstances of one of Canada’s worst peacetime military tragedies.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- On Saturday, the B.C. Conservatives under Lorne Doerkson won a majority government in the snap election called by Premier David Eby on September 22, the party’s first win since 1928. According to Elections BC’s preliminary results, the Conservatives are leading in 64 of 93 ridings with 48 per cent of the vote, well above the 47 seats needed for a majority, followed by the NDP at 27 and the Greens at two. Eby held his seat in Vancouver-Point Grey but announced his resignation as NDP leader, saying “I accept full responsibility for that outcome.”
- The union representing approximately 1,200 workers at Teck’s Highland Valley Copper mine issued a strike notice following unsuccessful contract negotiations. United Steelworkers Local 7619 cited staffing shortages, wages and pensions among its concerns. Teck said operations were continuing, with strike action permitted as early as October 24.
- Winnipeg votes municipally on Wednesday, October 28, with incumbent Scott Gillingham facing challengers including former provincial cabinet minister Kevin Klein and Mike Vogiatzakis. The candidates clashed last week over policing, bail reform, crisis response and relations with other governments, while transit and affordability remain major campaign issues.
- Premier Smith called the UCP a “federalist party” Wednesday, urging members to accept the referendum result or find another party as Albertan separatists challenged her leadership.
- Saskatchewan’s NDP is challenging the Saskatchewan Party’s longstanding dominance, with an Abacus poll released Thursday putting the governing party at 48 per cent and Carla Beck’s NDP at 46 per cent among decided voters. Half of respondents said it was time for a change, while only 31 per cent said the government deserved re-election.
- Today, Ontarians head to the polls for municipal elections. In the province’s capital, Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow is facing a competitive challenge from Councillor Brad Bradford. A Canada Pulse Insights poll released Friday put Chow at 51 per cent and Bradford at 46 per cent among decided and leaning voters.
- Queen’s Park resumes sitting on Tuesday, October 27, following a 21-week break, with the Ford government facing renewed scrutiny over affordability, public services and Ontario’s finances. Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will table the fall economic statement on Thursday, October 29, promising a disciplined spending approach as the province’s projected deficit exceeds $13 billion.
- Newly reported findings detail contacts between government staff, developers and lobbyists at a Toronto Maple Leafs hockey game on the day cabinet approved the Greenbelt removals. The reporting adds to the scrutiny surrounding the ongoing RCMP investigation.
- Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was sworn in on October 21 as Quebec’s 34th premier, ending more than a decade out of power for the Parti Québécois. Manon Jeannotte, lieutenant governor of Quebec and King Charles’ representative in the province, did not attend, at the request of the Premier. This marks a first in Quebec’s history. Plamondon selected a smaller cabinet which he said reflects his campaign pledge to reduce the size of government, cut bureaucracy and rein in public spending.
- A judicial recount awarded the Vachon riding to PQ candidate Stephan Fogaing by three votes, reversing the Liberals’ election-night lead and giving the PQ a 60th seat. The Liberals said they were reviewing their legal options.
- Opposition leader Charles Milliard signalled that the Liberal Party would cooperate with the minority government while remaining firmly opposed to its referendum plans.
- New Brunswick’s Liberal government opened the legislative session Tuesday with a throne speech focused on health care, affordability and economic development.
- Ottawa committed up to $254 million toward a port and rail upgrade in the Saint John, NB area, with New Brunswick contributing $116.5 million. It is the first project funded through the new federal Trade Diversification Corridors Fund.
- Former New Brunswick Progressive Conservative cabinet minister Daniel Allain won the party leadership on October 17, defeating Don Monahan. Socially conservative party members have already announced plans to launch a new right-wing party.
- Nova Scotia’s government rejected calls for an emergency legislative debate on EverWind’s proposed data centre for Anthropic in Point Tupper, as concerns mount over electricity costs, water use and environmental impacts.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Euro Summer Fall
We are just days out from the much-discussed Canada-EU Summit, during where Canadians will hear more on the government’s desire for closer cooperative ties with the European Union. A refreshed agreement or accord is expected to closely focus on AI and digital technologies, allowing Canadian companies to bid on cloud and AI contracts typically reserved for European countries. Other key items will include defence and security (with a focus on space), banking, and quantum tech.
Prime Minister Carney has been cresting a wave of public support on deeper European ties. A September Abacus Data poll found that 80% of Canadians want greater economic, defence-related and policy cooperation with the EU. However, it’s not all smooth sailing. Germany and France, two behemoths within the EU, have been firmly opposed to the wording of Canada’s teased “associate member” status. The Prime Minister’s own preview of the meeting avoids using the term. There is also the agreement’s primary opponent: President Trump, who, when news initially circulated about associate-member status, labelled the pursuit a “hostile act.” Batten down the hatches for blowback from below the 49th parallel.
Claire Smith
Senior Consultant
The Prime Minister and the Provinces
Alberta voted decisively not to initiate the process of a binding referendum to separate from Canada last week, nor were they supportive of relitigating constitutional battles with Ottawa in a number of down ballot questions posed. But on questions related to provincial control over immigration, a majority of Alberta voters aligned behind setting new rules for newcomers, rather than leaving these parameters to Ottawa. While far from a decisive outcome, the results indicated that the status quo on the federal government’s immigration policy remains unpopular in Alberta, and under continued in the eyes of many Canadians.
These results, along with Quebec voting for the separatist Parti Quebecois and BC voting for a new Conservative government on Saturday, indicate that, while Canadians are happy with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s leadership amid the trade war with the U.S., policy tensions remain on other hot button issues, such as immigration. Carney’s next move on immigration levels will show whether Ottawa treats these provincial signals as a mandate to adjust, or simply as noise to manage.
Following these recent provincial developments, it’s clear that Carney has a strong national mandate but a more complicated set of provincial relationships. Both will shape what Ottawa can do in the months ahead.
