The Ballots of Alberta and B.C.
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
October 19, 2026
10 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- A fire during a live training exercise at CFB Wainwright, located east of Edmonton, resulted in multiple fatalities and injuries on Saturday. At 11 a.m. today, the Prime Minister will make a statement in the House of Commons following the tragedy.
- Today, Albertans head to the polls to vote on ten referendum questions, covering topics from immigration to constitutional reform. Most notably, voters will be asked whether Alberta should remain in Canada or begin the constitutional process required to hold a binding separation referendum. After largely keeping his distance from the process in recent months, Prime Minister Mark Carney headlined two Forever Canadian rallies last week, stepping up the federal government’s push for national unity.
- The Prime Minister is travelling to Türkiye on October 21st, marking the first bilateral visit by a Canadian prime minister. Carney will meet President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and discussions will focus on trade and investment, energy and mining, and defence and security.
- Industry Minister Mélanie Joly says “everything is on the table” as the government prepares its response to Stelco’s ongoing layoffs. The government is reviewing their options under the Investment Canada Act. This includes financial penalties, a court order forcing the company to comply with its commitments, or an order requiring it to sell its Canadian assets.
- British Columbians will elect their next provincial government this Saturday. A new Léger poll showed the B.C. Conservatives at 42% among decided voters, narrowly ahead of the NDP at 40%. Green support fell four points since September to 9%, while 26% of British Columbians said they were likely to change their vote.
- Prime Minister Carney confirmed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be visiting Canada December 11th and 12th. In a call last week, the leaders reaffirmed their commitment to conclude negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement as soon as possible.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Today, the House is scheduled to hold a deferred vote on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s opposition motion concerning the affordability crisis.
- Later today, the House will consider Bill C-38, the Canadian Fuel Affordability Act, at report stage.
- Private members’ business includes resuming second reading debate today on Bill S-217, which concerns Canada Revenue Agency reporting on unpaid income tax. Second reading debate on Bill S-242, Georgina’s Law, begins on Tuesday.
- The House will begin a second reading debate on Bill C-40, the Strengthening Canada’s Defence Sector Act, today at noon. Bill C-2, the Strong Borders Act; Bill C-28, the Canadian Space Launch Act; Bill C-34, the Safe Social Media Act; Bill C-36, An Act to enact the Protecting Privacy and Consumer Data Act; and Bill S-5, the Connected Care for Canadians Act, remain at second reading but are not currently listed for debate.
- Bill C-39, the Building Canada Strong Act, passed second reading on October 8th and was referred to a legislative committee established to study the bill. Bill C-37, the First Nations Clean Water Act, passed second reading on October 9th and was referred to the Standing Committee on Indigenous and Northern Affairs.
- Bill C-29, the Financial Crimes Agency Act, remains at the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights, while Bill C-31, the Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 2, remains at the Standing Committee on Finance.
Committee Updates
- FINA will meet today to discuss Bill C-31, the Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 2. Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon will appear for one hour, alongside departmental officials.
- Today, ETHI will meet in camera to consider its draft report on Challenges Posed by Artificial Intelligence and its Regulation.
- SECU will meet in camera today to consider draft reports on the CBSA’s role in the H2O Highway Corridor and port clearance practices, and Canada’s ability to remove foreign nationals with a criminal record.
- FAAE will meet today to continue its study of the Bilateral Relationship Between Canada and the United States.
- NDDN will meet today to discuss Inflection Point 2025 and the Modernization of the Canadian Army.
- Today and Wednesday, FEWO will hear witnesses on the Labour Force Impacts of Menopause and Perimenopause.
- LANG will meet in-camera today to consider draft reports on regulations governing French in federally regulated private businesses, French in government communications and federal institutions, and the minority-language education continuum. On Wednesday, it will continue considering its draft report on the minority-language education continuum.
- JUST will meet today to discuss Bill C-29, the Financial Crimes Agency Act.
- Today, FOPO will hear witnesses on Atlantic salmon populations, including Indigenous representatives, fishing industry representatives and watershed advocates.
- On Tuesday, PROC will discuss Artificial Intelligence and Canada’s Democratic Institutions.
- Tomorrow, CIMM will meet to discuss Attracting and Empowering Global Talent to Strengthen Canada’s Economy.
- CHPC will meet tomorrow in camera to consider its draft report on the State of the Journalism and Media Sectors.
- On Tuesday and Thursday, SRSR will meet in camera to consider draft reports on artificial intelligence and private sector investment in research and development in Canada.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-22, An Act respecting lawful access, remains at second reading in the Senate, as does Bill S-203, An Act to prohibit the promotion of alcoholic beverages, and Bill S-7, An Act to modernize certain regulatory and administrative processes.
- Bill S-202, An Act to amend the Food and Drugs Act (warning label on alcoholic beverages), remains at third reading.
Committee Updates
- CSCF is meeting this week to examine the subject matter of Bill C-39, the Building Canada Strong Act, and will hear from federal regulators, environmental experts and energy industry representatives.
- NFFN is meeting this week to examine the subject matter of all of Bill C-31, and will hear from government officials, the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives and Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada on Tuesday.
- SECD is meeting this week to discuss defence procurement and conduct clause-by-clause consideration of Bill S-223, which would amend the Royal Canadian Mounted Police Act. Secretary of State for Defence Procurement, Stephen Fuhr, will appear for one hour on Monday.
- SOCI is meeting this week to hear witnesses and conduct clause-by-clause consideration of Bill S-234, concerning a national framework for fetal alcohol spectrum disorder. It will also hear from Artificial Intelligence and Digital Innovation Minister, Evan Solomon, for one hour on Thursday as part of its study on artificial intelligence in Canada.
- RIDR is meeting this week and will consider a draft report on artificial intelligence and human rights.
- TRCM is meeting this week in camera to consider its draft report on artificial intelligence in the information and communication technology sector.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Last week, President Trump repeated his claim that “Canada will end up being the 51st state”, and U.S. Ambassador Hoekstra accused Canada of election interference. Prime Minister Carney has publicly condemned President Trump’s new diesel deal with Russia, and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre visited Detroit to push for a tariff-free auto deal.
- CBC News reported that the federal government quietly paused their planned purchase of American Black Hawk helicopters just before trade negotiations began last summer.
- The federal government announced $100 million to support offshore wind development in Nova Scotia. Wind West is on the federal government’s list of major infrastructure projects and the lion’s share of funding is devoted to kickstarting development and attracting investors in anticipation of the call for bids, which is expected to go out early in 2027.
- Labour opposition to Bill C-39 continues to mount. On October 15th, the Canadian Labour Congress organized 21 rallies throughout the day at MPs’ constituency offices and other locations across the country.
- Statistics Canada reported that Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, marking a second straight month of losses.
- With Liberal MPs concerned about Canada’s workforce not being prepared to match the speed of the federal government’s ambitions, Secretary of State for Labour John Zerucelli announced $430 million over the next five years to help unions train a new generation of workers in the skilled trades. On Friday, Jobs Minister Patty Hajdu rolled out a plan to spend up to $258.6 million over the next five years to train workers in critical sectors.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- NDP Leader David Eby, Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson and B.C. Green Party Leader Emily Lowan clashed during the only official debate of the provincial election. The live showdown addressed the economy, housing market, B.C.’s insurance model, and more.
- Yesterday, Pete Fry was elected mayor of Vancouver. Fry, who ran as an unabashed progressive, will be the city’s first ever Green Party mayor.
- The B.C. Conservatives are attacking the NDP leader over the revelation that his children are enrolled in the province’s $10-a-day childcare plan, arguing that the premier should not benefit from a program that they say is inaccessible to many low-income families.
- The B.C. Conservatives have dropped Vancouver-Strathcona candidate Jordan McIntosh after the NDP released screenshots of social media posts in which he minimized the Holocaust. If elected, McIntosh will not be permitted to sit as a member of the Conservative caucus.
- Premier Eby is defending leaked plans by his government to limit the compensation of forest companies when land is transferred to First Nations. While their platform doesn’t mention the plans, the NDP have claimed that these kinds of agreements are standard practice and that the proposal is a draft which hasn’t been finalized.
- On Monday, Prime Minister Carney urged Albertans to vote “No to the nine.” This refers to the first nine questions on today’s referendum ballot that address immigration and constitutional reform. Premier Smith responded that while she and Carney had found common ground over the past 18 months, the Trudeau government’s policies had led her to vote “Yes to the rest.”
- The Saskatchewan NDP asked the conflict-of-interest commissioner to examine private flights and activities involving MLA Kevin Weedmark’s newspaper business. Weedmark has denied claims of wrongdoing.
- The Manitoba government introduced legislation imposing a levy on cryptocurrency, seeking to reduce hydro rates. The government expects the measure to bring in about $20 million based on current crypto operations, which Finance Minister Adrien Sala says will translate into $50 a year in savings per ratepayer household.
- Premier Ford said Ontario is planning as though U.S. tariffs will remain indefinitely. In an address to the Empire Club, he emphasized investments in energy and infrastructure and plans to accelerate project approvals.
- The Ontario Liberals accused the Ford government of having political ties to private career colleges under scrutiny over OSAP. Three colleges have been barred from the student assistance program until 2030.
- Cycling groups sought permission to appeal to the Supreme Court over Ontario’s removal of Toronto bike lanes. Demonstrators also attempted to block removal work on Bloor Street West, with police arresting one person on Wednesday.
- Parti Québécois MNAs were sworn in on Thursday. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon reiterated that while his government would first focus on addressing Quebec’s problems and restoring public confidence, he is still committed to holding a sovereignty referendum.
- Quebec officials are reportedly already preparing for the PQ’s promised abolition of Santé Québec. The Health Ministry said it was assessing the implications of campaign commitments but denied that legislation was being prepared.
- Newly elected members’ refusal to swear allegiance to King Charles III has raised constitutional questions. One legal expert warned that they could be barred from sitting in the National Assembly.
- Ottawa and the four Atlantic provinces renewed the Atlantic Fisheries Fund for five years, committing over $300 million to the region’s fish and seafood sector. The federal government will provide 60% of the funding, with the provinces covering the remainder.
- Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston defended his changing position on data centres. After saying in June that considering them was a distant prospect, Houston has opened the door to proposals.
- The Holt government has reportedly reversed its decision to end free sand for driveways and walkways, according to an MLA. The planned cut had drawn criticism from opposition members and municipal leaders over its impact on rural communities and low-income residents.
- Newfoundland and Labrador anticipates additional oil revenues exceeding an earlier $500-million estimate as the war in Iran drives prices higher. Premier Tony Wakeham cautioned that the province would not base its financial planning on war-driven windfalls, noting that higher prices also increase residents’ fuel and heating costs.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Tunnel Vision
Next Saturday, British Columbians head to the polls in a closely contested race between the B.C. Conservatives and NDP. Regardless of who wins, the result could end up reshaping Prime Minister Mark Carney’s relationship with the province.
Both parties support advancing a number of major projects, offering common ground with Ottawa and a potential pathway to strengthen the province’s economic growth. With B.C.’s projected $13.8-billion deficit for 2026–27, however, the next government will face pressure to attract investment and balance their election promises. This includes the NDP’s pledge to make the BC Manufacturing Jobs Fund permanent, and the Conservatives’ proposal to not introduce new taxes.
The incoming government must also advance key commitments contained in the Canada–B.C. Cooperative Prosperity Agreement by December 1st, including those related to the George Massey Tunnel replacement. Competing tunnel and bridge proposals put forward by the NDP and Conservatives could create friction with Ottawa and complicate efforts to meet the December deadline. While shared infrastructure ambitions could underpin federal-provincial cooperation, disagreements over project delivery, funding and fiscal priorities will ultimately shape the future relationship between Ottawa and Victoria.
Simon Polesel
Research Manager and Consultant
Alberta Decides: Sovereignty, Services, and the Ballot
Today marks Referendum Day in Alberta. The ballot has 10 questions covering constitutional reform, immigration policy, voter ID requirements, and whether Alberta should remain in Canada or hold a binding second referendum on separation. This marks the first time Alberta has put the question of independence directly to the public.
The vote is being seen as a defining indicator of current federal-provincial power dynamics. Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) government is using these non-binding questions to test support for its attempt to exert greater control over areas of federal jurisdiction. Premier Smith hopes to get a strong endorsement for her pro-Alberta agenda, but one that stops short of a call for full independence. It’s a delicate balancing act because support for separation is stronger in her own party than with the general public.
Recent polling indicates that among decided voters, 74% would vote for Alberta to remain a province of Canada. Voter turnout, however, will be crucial. Barring an “October surprise,” the story post-referendum will be in the regional breakdowns. Particularly, how did the rural UCP heartland vote compared to urban ridings in Calgary and Edmonton. The one sure bet is that political tensions within the UCP and across Alberta won’t end with the final ballot count.
