Election 2025
Overview & Analysis
The 2025 federal election is over. Canadians cast their ballots in large numbers – including record-breaking turnout during advance polls. While final ballot counts are outstanding in many ridings, the Liberals will form a government that may be just a few seats shy of a majority.
The fact that this result was effectively inconceivable mere months ago attests to the seismic shift that has taken place in the political landscape and in Canadian public opinion. While 2025 began with “change” as the clear ballot box question, driven by voters’ preoccupation with affordability and the cost of living, U.S. President Donald Trump’s unrelenting threats and attacks on Canada’s economy and sovereignty upended the political discourse.
Political rookie Mark Carney will lead a government in the House of Commons, held to account by a strengthened Conservative caucus. The Conservatives made significant gains in yesterday’s election, despite leader Pierre Poilievre losing his own seat after 21 years in office. The Bloc Québécois return to Ottawa with a reduced seat count. Meanwhile, New Democrats have lost official party status, after seeing their voter support crater and their leader Jagmeet Singh lose his own seat.
Onward
Barring major upsets in the final ballot counts, expect to see Canada’s political dialogue shift very quickly to other pressing issues – namely, the economy, and President Trump’s trade war.
The new Carney Liberal government will want to demonstrate swift and decisive action to deliver on its campaign commitments. Parliament is likely to resume sitting in short order, with a Speech from the Throne and a 2025 budget tabled in the Commons soon after. Other milestones to watch for: Carney’s first appearance in the House and first Question Period, and world leaders flocking to Kananaskis for the G7 Leaders’ Summit in June.
Against this backdrop, we’ll be watching closely to see how the balance of power settles in Parliament. Party caucus compositions, as well as the election of a Speaker, will factor into these complex dynamics, and ultimately influence the Liberals’ approach to governing.
Thank you, next
An NDP leadership race will soon be underway to replace Jagmeet Singh, who resigned last night after losing his seat in the House. This was Singh’s third campaign as party leader.
While the Bloc Quebecois retained its status as the third-largest party in Parliament, they are projected to lose several seats. Still, leader Yves-François Blanchet intends to stay on, and appears to have the support of his caucus.
One of the more interesting questions will be the Conservative Party’s approach to Parliament. While the party gained seats this election, they no longer have a leader in the House. Should Pierre Poilievre remain in his job as leader, the Conservatives will need to craft a creative approach to keeping him visible without the opportunities afforded by Question Period and speeches in the Commons.
Results
Key Deliverables
The government’s post-election policy agenda may not be lifted directly from the platform, but the Liberals will have to be accountable to the promises made. In that way, the platform can be instructive for the new Carney government’s first moves. These pledges include:
Rookies to Watch
The 2025 federal election has introduced a new cohort of high-profile rookies who are poised to make their mark on Canadian politics.
Here are some of the standout wins:
Ridings We Watched
Key Upsets and Surprises in the 2025 Federal Election
Several ridings stood out for producing surprising outcomes that could reshape the political map. A handful of unexpected flips and tight races had outsized impacts on each political party.
Among the most notable surprises:
Regional Dynamics
LPC Resurgence in Atlantic Canada: A few months ago, the Liberals were staring down a near-wipeout in Atlantic Canada. In the face of President Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty and our economy, Atlantic Canadians voted to rebuild the Liberal Atlantic fortress. The collapse of NDP support saw that party’s vote splinter to both the Conservatives and the Liberals. While the Conservatives exceeded expectations, picking up seats on the island of Newfoundland and in New Brunswick, two CPC incumbents lost their seats in Nova Scotia. The Liberals may have been hoping a few more Atlantic seats would ease its path to a majority, but the results are a remarkable reversal of fortune in a region that had all but rejected the red team at the start of the year.
Quebec: Liberals performed well in Quebec at the expense of the BQ. Leader Yves-François Blanchet appeared successful in coaxing supporters back to the party following the Leaders’ debates and after many accessible BQ voters had put their early support behind the Liberals. Blanchet’s message was that Carney’s Liberals had a comfortable margin already to defeat the Conservatives, and that it was therefore better for Quebec to seek more BQ representation and a chance at holding the balance of power in the House.
905: Conservatives made a strong showing in the 905 on Monday, picking up seats. This surge came despite repeated disparaging comments from Ontario Premier Doug Ford and his team, who openly questioned Team Poilievre’s approach to the campaign. These Ontario wins were a key factor in preventing the Liberals from reaching a majority of seats in the House of Commons, though final counting of votes leaves the final seat count unconfirmed.
Play for Alberta: The Conservatives were able to strengthen their hold in Alberta, increasing their representation mostly due to the addition of new ridings in the province. The Liberals both lost and gained a seat in Calgary, and held their Edmonton seat.
British Columbia: Canada’s westernmost time zone yielded some of the most dynamic races on Election Day. Liberals and Conservatives both gained seats, at the expense of the NDP.
Next Steps
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The Results Are In
170
143
22
7
1
Liberal (170)
Conservative (143)
Bloc (22)
NDP (7)
Green (1)