Ports and a Storm
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 6 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly says Donald Trump’s return to the White House has boosted Canada’s influence in the world as other international partners turn to Canada for advice on how to deal with him.
- David Lavery, a former Canadian special forces soldier who helped approximately 100 people flee Afghanistan during the fall of Kabul, was “picked up” by the Taliban last week, according to multiple sources.
- Former Liberal deputy prime minister John Manley said it would be in Canada’s best interest to hold an election as soon as possible, before Trump is inaugurated.
- If successful, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plan to restrict the inflow of newcomers will narrow the country’s gap between housing supply and demand, according to a budget watchdog.
- Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault is set to face a new round of questions over his business dealings and family history at a parliamentary committee in the wake of a report that his former company claimed to be “Indigenous owned” when bidding for federal contracts in 2020.
- Some Conservative MPs are frustrated after Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre refused to let them promote a federal housing fund in their constituencies. Sources say that Poilievre also instructed Conservative MPs to stop advocating on behalf of municipalities in their ridings who want to obtain funds through the $4-billion Housing Accelerator Fund.
- Canada Post workers went on strike last Friday after failing to reach an agreement with their employer. Both parties are still at the negotiating table and talks continue.
- A newly released report is urging Canada to immediately end all government-funded research collaboration with China in a variety of different areas. These include digital infrastructure technology, advanced sensing and surveillance, weapons, and space and satellite technology.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- When the House returns to debating legislation, the priorities of the government are Bill C-71, Bill C-66, Bill C-63, the ways and means motion related to capital gains, and the ways and means motion containing the government’s plan to require more transparency from charities that use deceptive tactics to push women away from making their own reproductive decisions.
- Bill C-63, An Act to enact the Online Harms Act, currently sits at second reading in the House.
- Bill C-71, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act (2024), currently sits at second reading in the House.
- Bill C-66, An Act to amend the National Defence Act and other Act, currently sits at second reading in the House.
Committee Updates
- FEWO will meet today to discuss Breast Cancer Screening for Women Aged 40.
- PACP will meet today to discuss SDTC.
- TRAN will meet tomorrow to discuss Accessible Transportation for Persons with Disabilities.
- FINA will meet tomorrow to discuss the Current State of Play on Green Finance, Green Investment, Transition Finance and Transparency, Standards and Taxonomy.
- ETHI will meet tomorrow to discuss Privacy Breaches at the Canada Revenue Agency.
- SBLI will meet on Wednesday to discuss Budget Submissions.
- FEWO will meet on Wednesday to discuss Gender-based Violence and Femicides against Women, Girls and Gender-Diverse People.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- C-317, An Act to establish a national strategy respecting flood and drought forecasting.
- C-241, An Act to amend the Income Tax Act (deduction of travel expenses for tradespersons).
- C-26, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts.
Committee Updates
- SECD will meet today to discuss Bill C-26, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts, and Examine and report on issues relating to national security and defence generally.
- NFFN will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to study matters relating to federal estimates generally and other financial matters, as described in rule 12-7(5). Marie-Claude Bibeau, Minister of National Revenue will attend the meeting.
- TRCM will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to Study matters relating to transport and communications generally.
- AGFO will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the growing issue of wildfires in Canada and the consequential effects that wildfires have on forestry and agriculture industries.
- AEFA will meet on Wednesday and Thursday to Study on foreign relations and international trade generally.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- The fight over Canada’s controversial digital services tax may escalate this week as the deadline looms for the Biden administration to decide whether to proceed with dispute arbitration amid threats of retaliation from Donald Trump’s incoming administration. But Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland isn’t flinching.
- Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the Canada carbon rebate for small businesses will be tax-free.
- U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s border czar says there is an “extreme national security vulnerability” along the Canada-U.S. border that he plans to deal with the moment the new Republican administration takes power.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
What We’re Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Shot Across the Bow – In recent history, Canadians have never gone to the polls demanding that their government get serious on defence spending. This lack of urgency, combined with Canada’s position as a soft middle power, have created the conditions for limited military spending.
But the times may be a-changing. The geopolitical situation in the world is increasingly unstable. U.S. lawmakers have also levelled criticism at the Trudeau government’s plan to meet NATO defence targets by 2032. In their view, Canada represents a threat to the long-term viability and success of NATO. With President Donald Trump set to return to the Oval Office, pressure to increase defence spending will only ramp up in the weeks and months ahead.
Later this week, Defence Minister Bill Blair will head to the Halifax International Security Forum, where he will join international military experts to discuss ways to strengthening global cooperation. Whether Canada is willing to put its money where its mouth is and pay its fair share is sure to be a hot topic of conversation.
Team Canada Reboot – The Trudeau Liberals are attempting to position themselves as the party best able to manage relations with the Trump administration. In support of this ascertion, they point to their track record of protecting Canada’s interests during the president-elect’s first term.
The political circumstances, however, have shifted dramatically since the Trudeau government was left to negotiate with the United States on critical matters like trade. Team Canada 2.0 doesn’t hold the same weight as it did under the majority mandate of the late 2010s. There are also a whole suite of new issues like defence spending, border security and across-the-board tariffs to contend with.
Incoming Trump appointees have also been vocal about their dislike of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his policies. But, that doesn’t mean the Trudeau government has nothing going for it at the negotiating table.
Minister Freeland and other members of Trudeau’s cabinet have valuable experience and relationships with the Trump administration. These touchpoints could prove useful as the Prime Minister attempts a full court charm offensive.
How Canada shows up, and on what issues, matters. Voters here at home will be heading to the polls soon and Canada-U.S. relations could be a litmus test at the ballot box.
Labour Unrest – After a days-long lockout that hindered shipping in Vancouver and Montreal at Canada’s two biggest ports, Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon sent both disputes to binding arbitration and ordered dockworkers back to work.
With Parliament at a legislative standstill over a matter of privilege, the government was unable to introduce back-to-work legislation. This meant the Minister to exercise a powerful, but controversial, ministerial authorization to force the parties into binding arbitration.
This is the second time the Liberal government has intervened this way in a major labour dispute in recent months. It’s a heavy-handed approach to labour relations for a government that has prided itself on being ‘pro-worker’.
To add to the mounting labour issues, Canada Post workers officially went on strike last Friday. This will be another critical test for the Liberal government who will have to decide whether to stand in solidarity with Canada’s labour movement or bow to growing pressure from Canadian businesses.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has managed to avoid taking a position on these fraught labour issues. In a bid to capture the working class union vote, the Conservatives have pledged not to introduce anti-union bills if elected.
As the next federal election creeps closer, expect the government to make efforts to regain the votes of working-class Canadians. It’s a base that was crucial to their 2015 landslide victory.
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