He Gets By With a Little Help From His Friends | Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 5 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he will join the Bloc Québécois in voting down the Conservative Party’s non-confidence motion this week. Votes from the Bloc and the New Democrats would eliminate the possibility of a snap election.
- The Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs will attend the UN General Assembly in New York this week and play host to French President Emmanuel Macron following the Summit.
- Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh got into a heated exchange in the House of Commons last Thursday, just minutes after Singh announced his party would not be supporting the Conservatives’ non-confidence motion against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government.
- A Liberal MP says he was pushed by one of the protesters gathered on Parliament Hill during the first week of the fall sitting. Several MPs say they have been harassed throughout the week by protesters who have been shouting and calling politicians and their staff “traitors.”
- The federal firearm buyback program has cost taxpayers nearly $67.2 million since it was announced in 2020, but it still hasn’t collected a single gun. The program is designed to compensate owners of assault-style firearms that were banned by the Liberal government in 2020.
- The House of Commons Standing Committee on National Defence plans to investigate the actions of former defence minister Harjit Sajjan. Military sources stated he undermined the 2021 mission to get Canadians and Afghans linked to Canada out of Kabul by instructing special forces to rescue a group of Afghan Sikhs.
- Meanwhile, tense meetings may be on the horizon at the House Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, as it appears Liberal MPs will introduce a motion to study the creation of a Palestinian state (with support from the NDP and the BQ).
- Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault has invited his Quebec counterpart to the negotiating table to reach an agreement on caribou before Christmas. He noted that the province could benefit from hundreds of millions of dollars in funding to protect biodiversity.
- A partnership between Newfoundland and Labrador and the federal government will expand the Canada Housing Benefit to include additional funding to help house people fleeing from gender-based violence. A total of $17.1 million will be spent over five years. Housing Minister John Abbott told reporters last Thursday that the province expects the money to support over 580 people in Newfoundland and Labrador.
- The Progressive Conservatives have won a provincial by-election in eastern Ontario, retaining a seat previously held by a popular cabinet minister. The Bay of Quinte provincial byelection was held just one month after Todd Smith resigned the seat.
- Jason Kenney, former Premier of Alberta and Canada’s longest-serving federal immigration minister, said the Trudeau government likely “imagined” it would be “creating a new permanent Liberal voting bloc” by rapidly boosting Canada’s immigration numbers, but instead ended up eroding Canada’s pro-immigration consensus.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Bill C-63, An Act to enact the Online Harms Act, sits at second reading in the House and will resume debate on Monday.
- The Minister of Finance will table a Ways and Means Motion on Capital Gains Taxation on Monday, and the vote will take place on Wednesday during government orders.
- The Conservative’s non-confidence motion will be tabled Tuesday, with the vote expected Wednesday.
- Bill C-71, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act (2024), sits at second reading in the House, and will resume debate on Wednesday.
- Allotted days will be on Tuesday and Thursday.
Committee Updates
- PACP will meet on Monday to discuss Report 6, Sustainable Development Technology Canada, of the 2024 Reports 5 to 7 of the Auditor General of Canada.
- CIIT will meet on Monday to discuss Protecting Certain Canadian Manufacturing Sectors, Including Electric Vehicles, Aluminum and Steel, Against Related Chinese Imports and Measures.
- CHPC will meet on Monday to consider a report on Tech Giants’ Current and Ongoing Use of Intimidation and Subversion Tactics to Evade Regulation in Canada and Across the World.
- INDU will meet on Monday to discuss Bill C-27.
- HUMA will meet on Tuesday to discuss Compensation Disparities Between Unionized and Non-Unionized Workers in Canada.
- FINA will meet on Tuesday to discuss Changes to Capital Gains and Corresponding Measures Announced in Budget 2024.
- SECU will meet on Tuesday to discuss the Growing Problem of Car Thefts in Canada.
- NDDN will meet on Tuesday to discuss the Defence Policy Update.
- NDDN will meet on Thursday to discuss Briefing on the Mandate and Priorities of the Chief of the Defence Staff.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-26, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts, sits at second reading in the Senate.
- Bill C-20, An Act establishing the Public Complaints and Review Commission and amending certain Acts and statutory instruments, sits at consideration in the Senate committee.
- Bill C-64, An Act respecting pharmacare, sits at consideration in the Senate committee.
- Bill C-40, An Act to amend the Criminal Code, to make consequential amendments to other Acts and to repeal a regulation (miscarriage of justice reviews), sits at second reading in the Senate.
Committee Updates
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Treasury Board President Anita Anand was sworn in as federal transport minister during a ceremony at Rideau Hall last week. She replaced Pablo Rodriguez, who resigned from cabinet and left the Liberal caucus to pursue the Québec Liberal party leadership. Rodriguez announced that he will sit as an Independent member of Parliament until January.
- Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh got into a heated exchange in the House of Commons last Thursday, just minutes after Singh announced his party would not support the Conservative’s first non-confidence motion against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government.
- Québec Premier François Legault said the Bloc Québécois must vote to topple the federal Liberal government and trigger an election. Legault called on Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to summon the “courage” to ask the Bloc to support the expected Conservative non-confidence motion against Prime Minister Trudeau’s minority government.
- The federal Liberals lost yet another major by-election last week, a sign that their Quebec base is at risk in the next election. At the same time, the New Democrats held on to their stronghold in Winnipeg – races that both parties had characterized as must-wins.
- The pressing issues of climate change and food security join more familiar ones like violent extremism and espionage on a new list of Canada’s intelligence priorities. The federal government said publishing the list of priorities for the first time is an important step toward greater transparency.
- Ethics Commissioner Konrad von Finckenstein said he has reviewed Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault’s records and — in the absence of any evidence that Boissonnault broke the conflict of interest law — has again closed a probe into the minister’s business dealings.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
What We’re Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Distinct Nation – The Bloc Québécois will vote against the Conservative Party’s non-confidence motion on Wednesday. Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet stated the Tory alternative is even more unpopular in the province, and that the BQ had a ‘golden opportunity’ to advance issues for Québec. Even under pressure from Québec Premier Francois Legault to pull the government down, Blanchet held firm, perhaps motivated by not giving Legault a political win given the provincial Parti Québécois lead in the polls. Blanchet has made it clear that his support for the governing Liberals will be contingent on two Bloc Private Members’ Bills, C-282, a bill on supply management, and C-319, legislation which will increase pensions by 10 percent. The ball is now in the Liberal’s court to move these to the top of the legislative agenda or risk losing the Bloc’s support.
Who’ll blink first? – With the first test of confidence for the government all but settled, attention is now on the remaining seven opposition supply days this fall, where opposition parties control the legislative agenda and can declare no confidence in the government. The NDP and BQ are less likely to push for confidence motions, instead using the minority government’s instability to push their own legislative priorities. The Conservatives may use the opportunity to continue introducing confidence votes, as a means of contrasting themselves with the current government and the opposition parties that continue to lend the Liberals their support. As uncertainty peaks in Parliament, the Trudeau government have limited runway to prove they can make this Parliament work, and to get back in the good graces of voters ahead of the next election.
Out with the Old? – After more than a year of political turmoil, New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs called a provincial election. In a trend that seems to be sweeping most of the world, the incumbent government is likely to face a serious challenge, this time from provincial Liberal Leader Susan Holt, when the election is held on October 21st.
Negative attitudes towards incumbents appear to be a feature in other provincial elections, with a tight race forming in British Columbia and a closer-than-usual campaign expected in Saskatchewan. Meanwhile, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith will be tested by her own Party members in a leadership review later this Fall. At a time when public sentiment towards their governments is trending downward, a focused and politically-attune government relations strategy remains important as ever.
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