A Champagne Budget, Midterms and By-Elections
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
November 2, 2026
5 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- On Thursday, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne will table Budget 2026, Mark Carney’s second budget. The Parliamentary Budget Officer has projected a $63.3 billion deficit for 2026-27, rising to a peak of $70.2 billion in 2027-28.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney announced yesterday that by-elections will be held on December 7, across all six vacant ridings. Currently the Liberals hold 173 of 343 seats and will be looking to defend Scarborough North and Laurier—Sainte-Marie while looking to take ridings previously held by the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois and the NDP.
- Ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. midterm elections, Prime Minister Mark Carney said yesterday that he had a good conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump, adding that their teams will work in the coming weeks to deliver a mutually beneficial trade deal. It follows reports last week that the U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra told a closed-door meeting that Canada could be blamed if key races go against Trump’s Republicans, while Carney told Politico on Friday that Canada can wait for a new U.S. president rather than accept a bad deal, adding, “We’ll have to, if that’s what it takes.”
- Prime Minister Mark Carney hosted the Canada-EU Summit in Montreal last week, where he, European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a new strategic and economic partnership called, the Alliance for the Future. The leaders concluded a digital trade agreement and a competition agreement, launched negotiations on Canadian access to the Galileo satellite system, and opened talks on Erasmus+ and Horizon Europe.
- Industry Minister Mélanie Joly warned Cleveland-Cliffs that Ottawa will turn to the courts if it does not reverse layoffs at Stelco by the 15-day deadline which expires this Friday, November 6. Cleveland-Cliffs has repeatedly affirmed it is in compliance with all 34 of its undertakings and has requested a meeting with the minister.
- Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne announced the expected establishment of the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank with signing to take place in Luxembourg on November 30. The founding partners include Albania, Belgium, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg, Romania, Türkiye and Ukraine, and operations are expected to begin in 2027, while the United Kingdom has said it will not join.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Today, the House will debate a Conservative opposition motion calling on the government to respect veterans, follow its Buy Canadian Policy, cancel the Canada Revenue Agency’s nearly $12 million security services contract with Universal Protection Service of Canada Corporation, award it to a Canadian supplier, and reverse directives restricting military chaplains from praying with explicitly religious language at official functions. Tomorrow and Wednesday, the House will begin the report stage of Bill C-31, the Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 2 at report stage and third reading.
- On Thursday, the House will begin second reading on Bill S-5, the Connected Care for Canadians Act and at 4 p.m., the finance minister will present Budget 2026.
- Bill C-34, the Safe Social Media Act is at the Standing Committee on Canadian Heritage after passing second reading last week awaiting commencement of its study.
- Bill C-39, the Building Canada Strong Act, remains before the legislative committee established to study it following second reading on October 8.
- Bill C-40, the Strengthening Canada’s Defence Sector Act is at the Standing Committee on National Defence awaiting commencement of its study.
- Bill S-209, the Protecting Young Persons from Exposure to Pornography Act is at the Standing Committee on Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities (study has not started yet).
Committee Updates
- Today, FEWO will continue its study on the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Women, Girls and 2SLGBTQIA+ Individuals.
- Today, FAAE begins its study on the Opportunities Presented to Canada through a Strengthened Relationship with the European Union.
- Today, NDDN will continue its study on Inflection Point 2025 and the Modernization of the Canadian Army.
- Today, JUST will continue its study on Bill C-29, An Act to establish the Financial Crimes Agency and to make consequential amendments to certain Acts and regulations.
- Tomorrow, FINA will meet to hear from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem on the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report.
- Tomorrow, PROC will continue its study on Artificial Intelligence and Canada’s Democratic Institutions.
- Tomorrow, CHPC will continue its study on Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- On Wednesday, Secretary of State (Labour) John Zerucelli will appear before the Senate for question period.
- Bill C-241, a National Strategy on Flood and Drought Forecasting Act is awaiting second reading in the Senate after being read for the first time last week having passed through the House.
- Bill C-22, the Lawful Access Act, 2026 is at the Standing Senate Committee on National Security, Defence and Veterans Affairs.
Committee Updates
- Today, CSCF will continue its discussion on Bill C-39, An Act respecting certain measures to strengthen the economy.
- Today, SECD will continue its study on Bill C-22, An Act respecting lawful access. Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree and Justice Minister and Attorney General of Canada Sean Fraser will appear together for one hour.
- On Tuesday, NFFN will continue its study on the subject matter of Bill C-31, the Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 2.
- On Wednesday and Thursday SOCI will continue its study on matters related to the impact of artificial intelligence in Canada.
- On Thursday, BANC will study matters relating to banking, commerce and the economy generally, hearing from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem for 1.5 hours.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- The Bank of Canada raised key interest rates to 2.5%, marking its first rate hike since 2023. The Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report has inflation averaging 2.9% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, revising its inflation and economic growth forecasts higher, seeing the annual rate of inflation remaining above 3% through 2027.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney said the UAE and Canada are building big, as he and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in Ottawa last Tuesday, during the first visit to Canada by an Abu Dhabi crown prince. The two countries also signed a defence cooperation MOU, modernising the Canada-UAE Defence Cooperation Arrangement, while creating a Joint Military Committee to guide its implementation.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney said he has directed the Minister of Finance to work with First Nations leaders on the potential creation of a new First Nations Sovereign Wealth Fund following the first meeting between First Nations leaders and First Ministers in two decades. The leaders also discussed reforming the Indian Act, with Carney reaffirming his commitment to a path beyond the Indian Act following Manitoba premier Wab Kinew’s calls to abolish the act.
- Last Thursday, Prime Minister Mark Carney launched Canada’s first national security strategy in over 20 years, creating a framework to build out Canada’s capacity to withstand external threats. The strategy outlines five priorities, including economic security, advancing diversified foreign policy efforts, rebuilding the Canadian Armed Forces and modernized intelligence.
- Following the federal government’s announcement of up to $1.6 billion in equity in Toronto-based Cohere, AI and Digital Innovation Minister Evan Solomon said it will not be the last time Ottawa takes a stake in a Canadian tech company, noting a forthcoming federal tech fund will be designed to allow equity investments. The government said the money will be invested in stages, with regular reporting from Cohere on jobs and investments made in Canada.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- Premier-designate Lorne Doerkson said his government’s first priority for the legislature is raising the basic personal income tax exemption to $32,000, while also committing to repeal the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act, pledging no new taxes and an independent review of the province’s finances.
- Doerkson said he did not accept that B.C. had to choose between protecting B.C. ‘s coast and building its economy, declining to back Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s call to lift the north coast tanker ban.
- The B.C. NDP named former labour minister Jennifer Whiteside interim leader with unanimous caucus support, replacing David Eby who will remain an MLA. Mike Farnworth will serve as house leader.
- Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said “repealing the tanker ban is an important step toward securing better prices for our resources,” as Alberta and Saskatchewan backed Conservative Bill C-264, which would have repealed the federal government’s B.C. tanker ban before the House defeated it at second reading on October 28.
- Service Alberta Minister Dale Nally said Bill 34, the Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction Statutes Amendment Act, 2026, will strengthen consumer protections by introducing a lemon law for vehicles that fail three repairs within three years or 60,000 km and right-to-repair rules covering vehicles, farm equipment, electronics and appliances.
- Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe’s government promised to continue personal income tax cuts, and plans to introduce the Protection of Economic Infrastructure Act to ensure critical infrastructure isn’t occupied or blocked.
- Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew told Prime Minister Mark Carney it was time to abolish the Indian Act at the joint meeting between First Nations leaders and First Ministers. Carney said moving beyond the Act could mean abolition or reform but must be co-developed with First Nations, and added the next day that the review would not necessarily end in abolition. Assembly of First Nations National Chief Cindy Woodhouse Nepinak said the Act contains some protections and each nation must decide how to proceed.
- Last Thursday, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy said deficits are necessary in the current environment as he tabled the 2026 Fall Economic Statement which projects a record $16.9 billion deficit for 2026-27, up $3.1 billion from the spring budget. The statement projected revenue to rise $2 billion in 2026-27, and outlined a $3.8 billion top-up to the Ontario Contingency Fund.
- Last Wednesday, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy announced the $8 billion Ontario Competitiveness Tax Cut, which parallels federal measures by allowing businesses to immediately write off 100% of a wide range of capital assets, and $50 million over three years in research and development tax support for up to 700 businesses.
- Last Monday, Olivia Chow won a second term as Toronto mayor, while Hamilton voters elected Keanin Loomis as new mayor with 41.8% of the vote. In Mississauga, Alvin Tedjo defeated incumbent Carolyn Parrish and former mayor and leader of the Ontario Liberal Party Bonnie Crombie.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney said Quebec Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon chose to leave an empty chair at the Canada-EU Summit in Montreal, after Ottawa refused the premier a speaking role and offered him a dinner invitation like other premiers. St-Pierre Plamondon called the refusal a serious mistake and announced last Wednesday that he would skip the summit and send Quebec’s chief diplomat, Pascal Paradis. Quebec’s opposition parties backed a speaking role, with Conservative Party of Quebec Leader Éric Duhaime calling Ottawa’s refusal “toxic federalism.”
- Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said it was a matter of principle for Quebec to reiterate it will conduct nation-to-nation relations with First Peoples two days after the premier passed on the First Nations-First Ministers’ meeting. On Thursday, he met with the Assembly of First Nations Quebec-Labrador Chief Francis Verreault-Paul and noted he will be meeting with other chiefs from around the province before the end of the year.
- Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said the government will begin consultations in the coming months to determine whether the province maintains daylight saving time.
- A Nova Scotia legislative committee heard from EverWind on its $10 billion Point Tupper data centre campus, where Deputy Minister Lora MacEachern said the project does not require an environmental assessment and the opposition called for data-centre rules in legislation.
- Newfoundland and Labrador Finance Minister Craig Pardy announced that the province’s tax on gasoline and diesel will fall to zero from December 1 to March 31, 2027, and legislation would keep it at zero beyond March while oil stays above $89 a barrel.
- The RCMP laid 42 charges under P.E.I. ‘s Election Expenses Act against the Progressive Conservative Party’s official agent, which Premier Rob Lantz called administrative issues. Green Party Leader Matt MacFarlane said the premier should be taking some ownership.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
At the Summit
The 21st Canada-E.U. Summit was hosted in Montreal at the end of last week, as the relationship between the two continues to evolve. The summit produced a number of new agreements, including one on digital trade and another for European investment in Canadian critical minerals. Debate continues on whether Canada would become an associate member, as suggested by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Carney. Some E.U. members, including Germany, are uncomfortable with that idea and would simply prefer a more expansive alliance. The advancing of cooperation with Europe comes as Prime Minister Carney seeks to diversify Canada’s international trade relationships. An agreement with the U.A.E. on defence, energy and trade was signed last week. An important trade deal with India is also looking likely to be signed when Prime Minister Modi visits Ottawa in December.
This progress stands in stark contrast to the lack of movement with the United States. President Trump says that a deal is close, but the furthest Prime Minister Carney will go is to suggest that negotiations are ready to restart. Regardless of what happens south of the border, the Canada-E.U. Summit and the deals with other nations across the world show the strategic importance that diversification holds for the Carney government.
Alyssa Bishop
Senior Research Manager and Consultant
A Trade War Budget
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tables his budget on Thursday under the title “Masters of Our Destiny,” which echoes the national security strategy that Ottawa released last week. The budget lands in the middle of a trade war, with Washington’s 50 per cent Section 338 tariffs in force since August, and revised again last week. It will also be the first full fiscal plan to account for the support packages and counter-tariffs announced in response. The structural side of that response has moved more slowly. The $25 billion Canada Strong Fund, Ottawa’s vehicle for co-investing in strategic projects, still lacks a launch date and the regulations setting out which sectors require foreign investors to clear a national security review are also months overdue. Stakeholders hit by the tariffs will be looking to the budget for indications about how long support will last and how it is paid for. Investors, both domestic and foreign, will be hoping that Ottawa finally sets the terms on which their capital can work alongside its own.
