Ballots in Quebec, a Pipeline to the Pacific, and a Steel Standoff in Hamilton
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
October 5, 2026
7 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- Today, Quebec voters head to the polls to elect 127 members of the National Assembly, with 64 seats needed for a majority. The Parti Québécois under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon enters election day leading in most polls, in a close race with the Liberals (led by Charles Milliard) and the Conservatives under Éric Duhaime. The governing Coalition Avenir Québec under Premier Christine Fréchette is much farther behind. What we’re watching for? Whether or not the PQ will secure enough support to form a majority government (and how the three-way race for popular support will translate to seat distribution).
- Alongside Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that the West Coast Oil Pipeline, now called Pacific Link, is listed as a project of national interest under the Building Canada Act. Canada and Alberta will share equal ownership of Pacific Link while Indigenous communities will be offered a minimum of 10% ownership interest, financed through Canada and Alberta’s Indigenous Loan Guarantee Programs.
- Stelco announced that it will indefinitely idle its cold-rolled and coated operations in Hamilton, with up to 500 layoffs across Hamilton and Nanticoke beginning Friday, October 9. Prime Minister Mark Carney said workers had been “betrayed by the company” and that Ottawa will use “all powers” to enforce Cleveland-Cliffs’ Investment Canada Act commitments, while Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves questioned the logic of a lawsuit and said the company would recall laid-off workers if Canada and the U.S. reach a steel deal. The United Steelworkers asked Industry Minister Mélanie Joly for an emergency meeting and a compliance review this week.
- Last week, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the remaining issues with Canada are “quite difficult to resolve,” after U.S. import bans on some Canadian alcohol, dairy products and motorcycles took effect on September 29. Carney said a mutually advantageous trade arrangement is still possible, while Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said detailed negotiations are not under way, but officials remain in contact.
- Alberta Prosperity Project lawyer Jeff Rath said separatist leaders met State Department officials three times in 2025 and that the people they met are “briefing directly to the cabinet level,” adding that “there’s a huge amount of support for Alberta independence at the highest levels of this administration.” Separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre said Michigan Republican strategists flew in on a private jet in January to pitch voter-targeting software for the campaign, while a White House official said that “no support or commitments were conveyed.”
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Procurement Minister Joël Lightbound has given notice of a bill entitled “An Act respecting production, procurement and investment in relation to national defence and national security,” which could be introduced in the House of Commons as early as today.
- Today and Wednesday, the House will hear second reading debate on Bill C-39, the Building Canada Strong Act. On Friday, the House will begin a second reading debate on Bill C-37, the First Nations Clean Water Act
- Tuesday and Thursday will be the first and second allotted opposition days of the supply period. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre put on notice an opposition motion on October 1 calling on the government to adopt an Emergency Fuel Relief Plan that would eliminate all taxes on diesel consumption until at least Canada Day and permanently eliminate taxes on diesel production.
- Bill C-2, the Strong Borders Act, Bill C-28, the Canadian Space Launch Act, Bill C-34, the Safe Social Media Act, Bill C-36, An Act to enact the Protecting Privacy and Consumer Data Act, and Bill S-5, the Connected Care for Canadians Act, all sit at second reading in the House of Commons and none are scheduled for debate this week.
- Bill C-29, the Financial Crimes Agency Act, is at the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights.
- Bill C-31, the Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 2, is at the Standing Committee on Finance.
Committee Updates
- NDDN will meet today to receive a Briefing on the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s Reports, Entitled ”Planned Capital Spending under Canada’s Defence Policy: 2025 Update” and “Fiscal Implications of Meeting NATO’s 5% Commitment.”
- ETHI will meet today for the consideration of its draft report on Challenges Posed by Artificial Intelligence and its Regulation.
- SECU will meet today to discuss Canada’s Security Screening Processes. Minister Gary Anandasangaree will appear for one hour.
- FAAE will meet today to discuss the Bilateral Relationship Between Canada and the United States.
- JUST will meet today to discuss Bill C-29, An Act to establish the Financial Crimes Agency and to make consequential amendments to certain Acts and regulations. Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree, and Justice Minister Sean Fraser will appear together for one hour.
- FINA will meet today to discuss Bill C-31, A second Act to implement certain provisions of the budget, and Bill C-38, An Act to amend the Excise Tax Act (extension of the federal fuel excise tax relief). The Hon. François-Philippe Champagne will appear for one hour on each Bill.
- On Thursday, ACVA will meet to discuss the Subject Matter of the Supplementary Estimates (A) 2026-27. Veterans Affairs Minister Jill McKnight will appear for one hour.
- On Thursday, CHPC will meet to discuss the Report of Future of Sport in Canada Commission. Secretary of State for Sport Adam van Koeverden will appear for one hour.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- On Tuesday, the Senate will resolve itself into a Committee of the Whole to examine Bill C-39, An Act respecting certain measures to strengthen the economy. Dominic LeBlanc, President of the King’s Privy Council for Canada; Steven MacKinnon, Minister of Transport; and Patty Hajdu, Minister of Jobs and Families, will appear before the Senate for up to two hours.
- Bill C-22, An Act respecting lawful access, remains at second reading in the Senate.
- Senate committees studying elements of Bill C-31 will submit their final reports to the Senate no later than Friday.
Committee Updates
- RIDR, TRCM, AGFO, AEFA, and SOCI, are meeting this week to discuss divisions of Part 4 of Bill C-31.
- APPA is meeting this week to discuss divisions of Part 4 of Bill C-31 and will hear from the Premier of Nunavut, Hon. John Main.
- NFFN is meeting this week to discuss all of Bill C-31, and will hear from Parliamentary Budget Officer Annette Ryan on Wednesday.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- LNG Canada and its partners announced a final investment decision on Phase 2 in Kitimat, B.C., which will double capacity to 28 million tonnes a year. Prime Minister Mark Carney said the Major Projects Office helped move the project quickly and efficiently toward an investment decision and the start of construction.
- U.S. import bans on some Canadian alcohol, dairy products and motorcycles took effect on Tuesday, September 29. U.S. President Donald Trump said Canada is being “taught a little lesson”. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told Canadian lobbyists on the same day to “get the hell out” of the U.S.
- Last week, after welcoming LNG Canada’s Phase 2 expansion, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced $1.2 billion in federal funding for ocean conservation and protection in North Vancouver.
- Conservative Member of Parliament Scott Aitchison announced that he will resign his seat of Parry Sound-Muskoka at the end of the fall parliamentary sitting. He will be the 12th Member of Parliament to resign since January and the eighth to leave the Conservative caucus in the last 11 months.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- On the campaign trail, B.C. Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson promised to double liquefied natural gas production by 2032. Doerkson also announced that a Conservative government would remove the provincial sales tax on Canadian alcohol during the U.S. trade war.
- Premier of British Columbia and BC NDP Leader David Eby pledged that an NDP government would double critical minerals exports within five years and expand the local port to make it Canada’s second-largest harbour by 2030. He said growing the economy and cutting wasteful spending would shrink the province’s projected $13.8 billion deficit year over year.
- After Ottawa designated Pacific Link a project of national interest, Eby said that B.C. has “an important role to play” in the pipeline process to protect the interests of British Columbians, while Doerkson praised the news. Coastal First Nations vowed to block any pipeline and tanker route on the North Coast, and the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs rejected the designation as “vulnerable to legal challenge.”
- The B.C. Conservatives announced that Christine Day, former CEO of Lululemon, and Iain Black, a former provincial cabinet minister and Greater Vancouver Board of Trade CEO, have accepted the role of campaign co-chairs. Elections B.C. said candidates have been finalized for the 2026 provincial election with the B. C. Conservatives running a full slate of 93 candidates while the NDP is one short at 92 candidates.
- Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced that Alberta will launch a request for proposals this fall for a downtown Calgary–Red Deer–downtown Edmonton high-speed rail line. Ottawa agreed to refer the project to the Major Projects Office once a proponent is chosen.
- Obby Khan announced that he is stepping down as Manitoba Progressive Conservative leader and leaving caucus to sit as the Independent MLA for Fort Whyte, days after surviving a caucus confidence vote. The caucus chose La Vérendrye MLA Konrad Narth as interim Leader of the Official Opposition.
- Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe’s government released a plan targeting 2,600 megawatts of nuclear power by 2050, including two large reactors in the northwest.
- Eric Lombardi withdrew from the Ontario Liberal leadership race, and endorsed Etobicoke-Lakeshore MPP Lee Fairclough, citing fundraising and polling challenges.
- The United Steelworkers asked Industry Minister Mélanie Joly last week for an emergency meeting and a compliance review regarding the layoffs from Stelco.
- Ontario’s Deputy Minister of Finance Gadi Mayman said that the government’s $5 billion Protect Ontario program had received just 36 applications totalling just under $100 million.
- Ontario’s general minimum wage rose by 35 cents to $17.95 an hour from $17.60, an increase the province says covers more than 700,000 workers.
- Parti Québécois leader Paul St- Pierre Plamondon said that within its first 100 days, a PQ government would move to strip Quebec’s lieutenant-governor of funding and effectively abolish the office, saying that Quebec taxpayers contribute between $12 million and $15 million annually to financing the monarchy.
- A Synopsis-La Presse poll found support for a sovereignty referendum is at an all-time low at 29%, falling by five points in two weeks. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the Parti Québécois has promised a referendum in a first PQ mandate, but not while U.S. President Donald Trump is in office.
- Premier of Quebec and Coalition Avenir Québec Leader Christine Fréchette blamed members of her own party, including staff for pitching journalists a story about alleged U.S. interference to help the PQ and disrupt the Quebec election.
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection said it denied entry to a sealed, bonded truck carrying mail, milk and spirits to the Campobello Island, which Canadian territory accessible only via the U.S., at the St. Stephen–Calais crossing due to presidential proclamations that took effect that day restricting Canadian alcohol from entering or transiting the United States.
- French President Emmanuel Macron promised an exploratory fishing licence to Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon-based ASPM, however Fisheries and Oceans Canada said that France doesn’t have the authority to conduct such activity on the Grand Banks’ continental shelf.
- Minimum wages rose in Nova Scotia, to $17.00 an hour from $16.75, and in Prince Edward Island, to $17.30 from $17.00.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
The Times They Are A Changin’
Prime Minister Carney’s relationship with his provincial counterparts will face several tests in the coming months – the first of which happens today as Quebec voters cast their ballots. Much of the federal-provincial unity has been built on major infrastructure projects, like last week’s LNG and pipeline announcements, as well as standing in solidarity against U.S. tariffs. With the possibility of leadership changes in Quebec today, fallout from the Alberta provincial referendum mid-month and an election underway in British Columbia, the strength of those relationships will be put to new tests. The Prime Minister is set to spend considerable time out of Canada in the coming weeks; the changing dynamics and relationships that test national unity may require him to spend more time mending fences at home.
Alyssa Bishop
Senior Research Manager and Consultant
Forward Without Applause
Ottawa has fenced in the path of Bill C-39, the Building Canada Strong Act, sending it to a House legislative committee struck for it alone while moving to have a special Senate committee study it before it arrives, with leading Ministers availing themselves to the Senate this week. This unusual bill process reflects a deliberate choice to steer this contentious legislation from the centre; after all, a one-seat Liberal majority on the House committee means no amendment will survive without the government’s go-ahead. C-39’s rewrite of section 107 of the Canada Labour Code appears to have satisfied neither organized labour nor employers, with unions interpreting it as an erosion of the right to strike and federal employers finding it too timid. Whatever changes emerge will be worked out between the Prime Minister’s Office and the offices of Hajdu and MacKinnon, whose influence will run through every stage. Proposals carried by a broad coalition will weigh most heavily, because the government will want that support (read: air cover) before agreeing to amend its own bill. Stakeholders impacted by this have a tight window, and audience, to engage.
