Guilbeault exits left, Findlay enters BC on the right, while Canada-U.S trade talks persist
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 10 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- India sent its biggest ever trade delegation to Canada with Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. The commerce minister stated that the visit “completely changed” India’s relationship with Canada, adding that both countries are keen for a free trade agreement in 2026. The trip concluded with the signing of a $2.6 billion deal to supply 22 million pounds of uranium to India for nuclear energy. 10 commercial agreements worth more than $5.5 billion were also signed.
- Amid increased Canadian defence spending, CANSEC saw record turnout with a 20-40% increase in last week’s attendance over previous years. The event accumulated nearly 20,000 registrants, and government announcements about the Saab fleet of six airborne surveillance planes, an overhaul of defence contract evaluation, and an update to Canada’s Industrial and Technological Benefits policy, among other changes.
- The Carney Government is signalling a major shift in its fighter jet procurement, with sources telling La Presse a decision is virtually made to split the order (30 F-35 and 60 Swedish Saab Gripens), a move that would reduce the originally planned 88-jet F-35 contract and create up to 9,000 jobs, potentially including manufacturing jets for Ukraine’s air force.
- Steven Guilbeault announced that he will be stepping down from the Liberal caucus to personally pursue climate action, motivated by what he called a backslide on the file from the current government. He also expressed skepticism about Premier Smith’s reliability as a Canadian partner. Guilbeault will remain an MP until the House of Commons rises for the summer. His resignation will bring the Liberal majority down to 173, one more than the 172 threshold, with anticipated resignations from Jonathan Wilkinson and Nathaniel Erskine-Smith still to come.
- Canada was left out of USMCA review talks held in Mexico City this week, where U.S. negotiators demanded North American-made vehicles contain at least 50% U.S. content and 82% North American content overall. This is a significant escalation from the current 75% North American requirement with no U.S.-specific threshold. Minister LeBlanc is planning a Washington trip as soon as this week.
- Canada’s biggest banks have started preparing to de-risk, setting aside money in anticipation of potential loan defaults as more Canadians miss mortgage payments. Equifax reported a 52% year-over-year increase in multiple missed mortgage payments by Ontario homeowners, and 36% in B.C. With April unemployment at 6.9%, up 0.2% from the previous month, BMO has set nearly $750 million in loan loss provisions, while Scotiabank has set aside $1.2 billion. The Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report notes that households are struggling and that the economy is vulnerable to shocks.
- Five federal byelections are on the horizon, with three in Quebec, after Bloc MP Simon-Pierre-Sivard-Tremblay announced he will resign his seat to run provincially for the Parti Quebecois this fall, joining four other departing MPs including three Liberals, a wave of resignations that could threaten the Carney Government’s majority if it fails to win back seats.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Bill C-22, the Lawful Access Act, is at consideration at the Standing Committee on Public Safety and National Security.
- Bill C-20, the Build Canada Homes Act, is at report stage in the House of Commons.
- Bill C-16, the Protecting Victims Act, is at consideration at report stage in the House of Commons.
- Bill C-25, the Strong and Free Elections Act, is at consideration at the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs.
- Bill C-28, the Canadian Space Launch Act is at second reading in the House of Commons.
- Bill C-29, the Financial Crimes Agency Act, is at second reading in the House of Commons.
- Bill C-30, the Spring Economic Update 2026 Implementation Act, is at the Standing Committee on Finance.
- Bill C-31, the Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 2, is at second reading in the House of Commons.
- Bill S-5, the Connected Care for Canadians Act, is now at second reading in the House of Commons.
Committee Updates
- FINA is meeting today and Thursday to discuss Bill C-30, the Spring Economic Update 2026 Implementation Act.
- INDU is meeting today to discuss opportunities, risks, and regulation of AI in Canada’s strategic industries.
- NDDN is meeting today to discuss the impact of the Defence Industrial Strategy.
- SRSR is meeting today to discuss Canada’s dual use and defence research needs.
- HUMA is meeting today to discuss homelessness in Canada.
- CIIT is meeting tomorrow to discuss Canada and the forthcoming CUSMA review.
- ENVI is meeting tomorrow to discuss protecting Canadian residents from extreme weather events.
- FINA is meeting tomorrow to discuss pre-budget consultations in advance of the 2026 budget.
- SRSR is meeting on Thursday with the president of the National Research Council for a briefing session.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-11, the Military Justice System Modernization Act, is now at second reading in the Senate.
- Bill C-14, the Bail and Sentencing Reform Act, is now at third reading in the Senate.
- Bill S-202, Warning Label on Alcoholic Beverages, is now at third reading in the Senate.
- Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, is at consideration at the Standing Senate Committee on National Security, Defence and Veterans Affairs.
- Bill C-9, the Combatting Hate Act (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places), is at the Standing Senate Committee on Human Rights.
Committee Updates
- SECD is meeting to conduct clause-by-clause consideration of Bill C-8 (45-1).
- NFFN is meeting tomorrow to discuss the subject matter of Bill C-30, the Spring Economic Update 2026 Implementation Act.
- TRCM is meeting tomorrow to discuss the temporary suspension of federal fuel excise tax on aviation fuels and its impact on airfares.
- ENEV is meeting tomorrow to examine and report on Newfoundland and Labrador’s offshore petroleum industry.
- SECD is meeting on Wednesday to discuss Bill C-11, An Act to amend the National Defence Act and other Acts.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- The Prime Minister’s deputy chief of staff, Braeden Caley is reported to be considering a run in the Vancouver-Capilano riding soon to be vacated by former Trudeau-era cabinet minister, Jonathan Wilkinson, who was recently appointed to be Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. Reports suggest that the Prime Minister supports Caley’s bid. First elected in 2015, Wilkinson won the riding in 2025 with 60 per cent of the vote.
- Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced an October 19 referendum on the question of whether Alberta should start the process to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. Smith faced vocal opposition from fellow premiers at the Western Premiers’ Conference in Kananaskis, who urged her to delay and focus on pipelines and national cooperation instead.
- PM Carney concluded a New York City visit to the Economic Club of New York, pitching Canada to top investors as a premier investment destination and outlining a strategy to catalyse $1 trillion in investment over five years in energy, transportation, data, and defence.
- The Supreme Court of Canada declined to hear a Wolastoqey First Nation appeal last week, letting stand a New Brunswick ruling that Aboriginal title cannot be declared over private land, a decision with major national implications for B.C.’s ongoing appeal of the landmark Cowichan Tribes case.
- Canada suspended more than 24,000 immigration and travel documents for residents of DRC, Uganda and South Sudan this week in response to the Ebola outbreak, marking the first use of sweeping new mass-suspension powers the government granted itself through Bill C-12.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- Former federal cabinet minister Kerry-Lynne Findlay has been elected leader of the B.C. Conservative Party, edging out runner-up Caroline Elliott with 51% of the vote on the fourth ballot.
- The Minister of Education has not provided any clear timeline on how an election announcement of educational funding for EAs, K-3 classrooms and mental health counsellors will be delivered. The government is taking heat from house leader Á’a:líya Warbus for making promises and underdelivering.
- The B.C. Supreme Court ruled in August that the Cowichan Nation holds Indigenous title to $1.3 billion worth of industrial land near Vancouver, unsettling property owners and investors. The decision, combined with a separate ruling requiring provincial laws to align with a UN Indigenous rights declaration, has sparked political backlash and investment uncertainty across British Columbia.
- B.C. is among the highest risk for wildfire activity this summer, alongside the Northwest Territories. There have been 65 active wildfires across the country this summer, six of which have been classified as out of control.
- Premier Danielle Smith shut down an internal party dispute after UCP President Rob Smith announced the party would remain neutral in October’s separation referendum. The Premier firmly declared her word is “the last word” and that the entire party, caucus, and government are united on remaining in Canada. The UCP quickly fell into line, issuing a statement reaffirming its support for a “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.”
- The Manitoba NDP government’s budget bill passed early Friday after days of contentious debate. The budget includes a provincial sales tax cut on snacks, soft drinks and prepared meals at grocery and convenience stores, which will take effect on July 1, over Opposition PC objections that the savings are too modest to address the broader affordability crisis.
- New finance disclosures reveal several Saskatchewan municipalities, First Nations and the Metis Nation made political contributions to the provincial Saskatchewan party and NDP in 2025, continuing a long-standing pattern of donation. Over the past decade Big River First Nation has given over $11,600 to the Sask Party. Cities like Prince Albert are saying that attendance at party fundraisers is non-partisan and aimed at engaging directly with the Premier.
- The race to replace Bonnie Crombie saw two key entries last week. Former federal innovation minister Navdeep Bains formally launched his bid, stepping down from his executive role at Rogers Communications to become the race’s first high-profile heavyweight. Days later, Ajax MPP Rob Cerjanec tossed his hat into the ring. Their entries bring the official field to four candidates, alongside MPP Lee Fairclough and Dylan Marando, ahead of the November vote.
- Ports, mines, and airports are lining up to get a slice of the province’s Special Economic Zones despite staunch criticism of Bill 5, which gives the government authority to overrule local planning, environmental assessment, and consultation processes. Thus far, the premier has indicated that the Billy Bishop airport expansion and the Ring of Fire mining project could benefit from the legislation.
- Ontario passed Bill C-9, the Municipal Accountability Act, 2026, which aims to address the lack of tools to hold city councillors accountable for responsible conduct. The bill was brought forward by Minister Flack alongside other grassroots organizations ahead of the province’s municipal elections in October.
- Quebec politicians across party lines united to condemn PM Carney’s comments that 50%+1 would not constitute a clear majority in a separation referendum, a stance broadly rejected in the province where a simple majority is considered the standard for referendum victory.
- Quebec’s second largest union federation, the CSN, is launching a consultation to update its position on sovereignty as delegates gather at its triennial congress in Quebec City amid renewed debate over a potential third referendum. The CSN last declared in favour during the two previous referendums over 30 years ago.
- 30,000 people are awaiting social housing—with a wait time of five years—as the province invests billions into the affordable housing market alongside the Government of Canada to bring units up to code, as about one-third of affordable units are in disrepair. Federal funding for the Quebec-owned social housing network expires in 2028.
- Last Wednesday, Premier Houston shuffled his cabinet, adding four new members, and removing himself from the energy file. Susan Corkum-Greek returned to social development, Brian Wong to the advanced education portfolio. Tory Rushton also returned with the natural resources portfolio.
- New Brunswick is slated to undertake a public utility overhaul but will not commit to avoiding rate freezes, which have been blamed for roughly $6 billion in public power utility debt, according to the NB Power review. The government said that it will establish an energy consumer advocate and speak with other Maritime provinces to set up a joint energy operator.
- A Fraser Institute study ranks Nova Scotia fourth-worst in Canada for combined federal-provincial debt-to-GDP ratio at 89.1%, with Atlantic provinces claiming four of the top six most-indebted spots nationwide.
- The Government of Prince Edward Island is pausing one of the biggest graduate government internship programs, which has had 63 interns pass through since its inception in 2023. The decision was described as short-sighted by Green Party MLA Karla Bernard, criticizing the government for discouraging youth from getting involved.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
CUSMA Crunch Time
With the July 1 CUSMA review approaching, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc heads to Washington for critical trade talks. Tensions remain high following U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra’s criticism of the pace of trade negotiations and Canada’s retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Carney met with investors in New York City last week to position Canada as a top destination for energy and defence investment. At a fireside chat, he raised the government’s recent decision to fast-track the Nouveau Monde Graphite Matawinie mine in Quebec, and to negotiate a major B.C. LNG deal with Germany. Minister LeBlanc faces the tall task of balancing the need to protect our domestic interests with the need to ensure that Canada’s partnership and resources appeal to the U.S. administration’s transactional appetite. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has made it clear that tariffs are here to stay, but Canada’s priority for CUSMA trade talks remains securing relief from the Trump Administration’s punishing sectoral tariffs and preserving the tariff exemption Canada enjoys on most products under CUSMA.
Kaitlynn Creighan
Consultant
Crude Divisions
Prime Minister Carney’s approach to climate policy may be creating a wedge within the Liberal caucus. Concerns over weakened climate policies, such as the industrial carbon price, reportedly prompted 14 Liberal MPs to write to the prime minister in opposition to the Alberta pipeline agreement. The most significant development came last week when former environment minister Steven Guilbeault announced his intention to resign at the end of the parliamentary session. These are the latest examples of the discomfort among progressive Liberals with Carney’s leadership. While Carney’s narrow majority ensures his legislative agenda faces no immediate risk in the House of Commons, he cannot afford any further departures from caucus, or a by-election defeat. As Parliament enters its second week of a demanding four-week sprint, this internal friction will test Carney’s discipline and the strength of his popularity with the Canadian electorate, which should help his efforts to maintain caucus unity. Having achieved a majority by courting opposition MPs from the right and left, the prime minister has pitched his government and caucus as a big tent coalition focused on building the Canadian economy. As the government steers Canadian energy and climate policy in a new direction, the true test will be whether Carney can bring his caucus and the country along with him. Expect environmental and resource development policies to remain persistent sources of internal tension.
Simon Polesel
Research Consultant
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