Tomorrow, Carney will unveil whether Canada’s economy will bloom or bust as his government tables its first Spring Economic Update.
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 10 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney will announce plans to create a sovereign wealth fund today, according to a senior government official. The fund will be used to invest alongside the private sector in major projects that the Carney government has committed to building over the coming years, and the government also plans to create a way for individual Canadians to contribute, the official said.
- François-Philippe Champagne is expected to unveil a new government initiative in Montreal this morning.
- Panic at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington this weekend, as a gunman attempted to gain access to the room. President Trump and senior officials in the administration were rushed to safety. There were no injuries.
- Tomorrow, the Carney government will table the Spring Economic Update 2026. Minister Champagne has said the plan will help families, industry and the nation. The C.D. Howe Institute is urging Ottawa to curb deficit spending.
- Last week, Prime Minister Carney announced the new advisory committee on Canada-US economic relations, which is slated to have its first meeting today. The committee will serve as a forum for expertise amidst the trade dispute with the United States and includes leaders from major sectors of the Canadian economy.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum discussed coordinating ahead of the upcoming CUSMA review amid ongoing U.S. tariffs and trade tensions, as Canada prepares for negotiations without a confirmed start date.
- Canada’s U.S. Ambassador Mark Wiseman told a House committee that the bilateral relationship is “too important to abandon,” even as CUSMA renewal talks remain without a set date. The meeting struck an optimistic tone while affirming Ottawa’s position that North American integration cannot come at the expense of Canadian autonomy.
- In his address to the Toronto Empire Club, Minister Hodgson said that the construction of the Enbridge gas pipeline expansion will start in the summer under the $4 billion Sunrise natural gas project. The pipeline has a shared ownership structure between Enbridge and 38 First Nations.
- Annette Ryan was appointed as the new Parliamentary Budget Officer. Ryan is a senior public servant with more than 30 years of experience in economic policy, taxation and public finance. She has held several leadership roles across departments within the Government of Canada and the Government of Prince Edward Island.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney will announce plans to create a sovereign wealth fund Monday, according to a senior government official. The fund will be used to invest alongside the private sector in major projects that the Carney government has committed to building over the coming years, and the government also plans to create a way for individual Canadians to contribute, the official said.
- François-Philippe Champagne is expected to unveil a new government initiative in Montreal at 10:00 am.
- Panic at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington this weekend, as a gunman attempted to gain access to the room. President Trump and senior officials in the administration were rushed to safety. There were no injuries.
- Tomorrow, the Carney government will table the Spring Economic Update 2026. Minister Champagne has said the plan will help families, industry and the nation. The C.D. Howe Institute is urging Ottawa to curb deficit spending.
- Last week, Prime Minister Carney announced the new advisory committee on Canada-US economic relations, which is slated to have its first meeting today. The committee will serve as a forum for expertise amidst the trade dispute with the United States and includes leaders from major sectors of the Canadian economy.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum discussed coordinating ahead of the upcoming CUSMA review amid ongoing U.S. tariffs and trade tensions, as Canada prepares for negotiations without a confirmed start date.
- Canada’s U.S. Ambassador Mark Wiseman told a House committee that the bilateral relationship is “too important to abandon,” even as CUSMA renewal talks remain without a set date. The meeting struck an optimistic tone while affirming Ottawa’s position that North American integration cannot come at the expense of Canadian autonomy.
- In his address to the Toronto Empire Club, Minister Hodgson said that the construction of the Enbridge gas pipeline expansion will start in the summer under the $4 billion Sunrise natural gas project. The pipeline has a shared ownership structure between Enbridge and 38 First Nations.
- Annette Ryan was appointed as the new Parliamentary Budget Officer. Ryan is a senior public servant with more than 30 years of experience in economic policy, taxation and public finance. She has held several leadership roles across departments within the Government of Canada and the Government of Prince Edward Island.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-13, An Act to implement the Protocol on the Accession of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is under consideration at the Standing Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade.
- Bill C-18, Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement Implementation Act, is under consideration at the Standing Senate Committee for Foreign Affairs and International Trade.
- Bill C-14, the Bail and Sentencing Reform Act, is currently being reviewed by the Standing Senate Committee on Legal and Constitutional Affairs.
- Bill S-202, Warning Label on Alcoholic Beverages, is at third reading in the Senate.
- Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, is at consideration at the Standing Senate Committee on National Security, Defence and Veterans Affairs.
- Bill C-9, the Combatting Hate Act (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places), is at second reading in the Senate.
- Bill S-5, the Connected Care for Canadians Act, is at consideration at the Standing Senate Committee on Social Affairs, Science and Technology.
Committee Updates
- SECD will be joined by Minister McGuinty today to examine and report on such issues as may arise from time to time relating to national security and defence generally, including veterans’ affairs.
- AEFA convenes this week to conduct clause-by-clause consideration of Bill C-18, An Act to implement the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between Canada and Indonesia.
- LCJC convenes this week to study Bill C-14, Bail and Sentencing Reform Act.
- SOCI convenes this week to study Bill S-5, Connected Care for Canadians Act, and to examine the impact of AI in Canada.
- TRCM convenes this week to examine and report on the opportunities and challenges of artificial intelligence (AI) in the information and communication technology sector.
- OLLO will be joined today by Minister Miller to examine and report on the regulatory framework of Part VII of the Official Languages Act.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Ottawa has reported a deficit of $25.5 billion between April 2025 and February 2026. The Finance Department says the result compared with a deficit of $19.3 billion for the same period of 2024-25.
- The federal government has approved eight affordable housing projects delivering 1,100+ new rental units in Ottawa, exceeding initial targets by nearly 10% . This came as part of a broader federal-municipal partnership under Build Canada Homes, with over 90% of units designated affordable and most breaking ground before year-end.
- Last week, Canada opened applications for an $890 million sovereign AI supercomputer program to build a national, Canadian-controlled high-performance AI computing system, under Canada’s sovereign AI strategy.
- Minister Hodgson delivered remarks at the Toronto Empire Club where he discussed fast-tracking major projects to strengthen the economy, expand energy and resource development, deepen partnerships, and improve national self-reliance. He also discussed secure energy supply and scalable digital/AI capacity to make Canada more economically independent and competitive.
- NGen is investing $62.7 million in 14 Canadian projects focused on AI, robotics, and advanced manufacturing, combining federal funding and industry investment.
- The Senate may add a provision criminalizing residential school denialism to Bill C-9, but the Justice Minister is waiting to see what amendments are proposed before taking a position.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- Premier David Eby is facing criticism for repeatedly reversing course on DRIPA reforms amid pressure from First Nations leaders. This is raising concerns about leadership, decision-making, and the government’s handling of legal risks following a key court ruling.
- There are now only five candidates Conservative leadership candidates left in the race. Executive Director of the Conservative Party, Angelo Isidorou, stated that the party currently has 42,000 followers, up from 7000 last December. The remaining candidates held their first debate on Friday night in Vancouver.
- Citing a lack of consultation and unresolved, overlapping territorial claims, a coalition of First Nations in British Columbia is threatening blockades and legal action over proposed treaties with the Kitselas and K’omoks nations. Meanwhile, the provincial government has urged continued dialogue despite mounting political and legal concerns.
- Manitoba’s premier Wab Kinew announced that there will be incoming bans to prevent children from using social media, similar to enforced social media age limits imposed in Australia which can levy fines toward non-compliant companies.
- Prairies Economic Development Canada is investing more than $8.2 million in three Saskatchewan projects to strengthen domestic defence capabilities, including funding for advanced manufacturing at a Yorkton firm, a military testing facility in Humboldt, and AI drone development in Saskatoon.
- Federal Energy Minister Tim Hodgson says public funds could support a proposed Alberta-to-Pacific pipeline through a $10 billion Indigenous loan guarantee program aimed at enabling Indigenous ownership, as Ottawa and Alberta explore project details amid debate over climate policy and the use of taxpayer dollars.
- Premier Ford’s omnibus budget bill (Bill 97) – which notably included changes to Freedom of Information (FOI) laws – passed on Friday with 57 votes in support and 33 against. The bill bypassed committee which would have allowed for members and the public to weigh in. The bill also merged the province’s conservation authorities, capped resale ticket prices, and introduced a one-year HST rebate for new homes.
- The Ontario Liberal Party now has their first official leadership contender by the name of Dylan Marando. He is a former political staffer who has worked for Liberal premiers, cabinet ministers and former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
- Following the premier’s misstep in purchasing a Challenger 650 private jet from Bombardier, the jet was sold back to the aerospace company for $28.9 million. This is the same price at which it was purchased.
- Amidst tumultuous trade negotiations with the United States, Premier Ford has refused to lift the ban on U.S. products within the LCBO until a trade deal is reached. When the Prime Minister was questioned about this, he responded that steel, automobile and forestry tariffs from the U.S. are “more than irritants” and are “violations of our trade deal.”
- Following former Premier Francois Legault’s resignation, Quebec’s new premier, Christine Fréchette announced her new, pre-election cabinet. It is composed of 12 women and 17 men, with unchanging positions in finance, culture and the treasury board.
- Currently, the Parti Quebecois sits at the top of the political standings with 31% support. The Quebec Liberal Party is a close second with Frechette’s CAQ still flirting with political oblivion.
- Quebec’s revised electoral map will go into effect after a final court ruling on the changes. Gaspé Peninsula and another east Montreal riding will be eliminated in favour of Laurentians and Centre-du-Québec regions. The Coalition Avenir Québec firmly opposed the revisions but had no legal basis to stop them.
- Quebec’s only federal NDP member Alexandre Boulerice, has left to join the Quebec solidaire in the upcoming provincial election, dealing a significant blow to the party’s presence in Quebec and reducing its House of Commons caucus to five seats.
- Newfoundland and Labrador’s Churchill Falls memorandum of understanding remains in limbo despite political pressure from. Quebec’s new premier pushes to finalize the deal before the October provincial election. While federal officials have signalled their support, it remains unclear when, or if, the agreement will move forward.
- Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston defended lifting the fracking ban, saying consultations on new natural gas development should allow open discussion and that opponents are dominating the conversation. The province is now reviewing onshore gas resources and could allow exploratory drilling as early as this summer.
- Prime Minister Carney is unhappy with New Brunswick’s plan to place highway tolls at the Nova Scotia border while Canada tries to reduce interprovincial trade barriers, saying that he will continue to discuss this change with the province. The Prime Minister is not alone in his disappointment, and has joined a chorus of other local leaders voicing their concerns.
- Prince Edward Island’s Minister of Transportation, Infrastructure and Energy is resigning, after failing to resolve issues under the Conflict of Interest Act before the compliance deadline.
- The federal government and Government of Prince Edward Island are investing nearly $3.1 million over three years to support more than 350 workers affected by global tariffs through retraining and employment services, helping strengthen workforce resilience and support key industries such as softwood lumber and steel.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Carney’s Crunch Time
Despite clinching a majority mandate, the path to concluding trade negotiations with the United States remains fraught for the Carney government. If anything, the clock is ticking louder. Not only has the Trump administration demanded an ‘entry fee’ from Canada as a condition to formally launch CUSMA discussions, Canada’s Chief Trade Negotiator has indicated that not all trade issues may be resolved by the July deadline. In response, Prime Minister Carney accelerated a “Team Canada” approach, acknowledging structural reliance on the US as a “weakness” and unveiling a new advisory body on Canada-US economic relations. Canadians should expect the recent spirit of bipartisan cooperation on issues like trade and affordability start to be short-lived. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has already rebuked Carney for not explaining to Canadians how his government plans to renegotiate the trade pact, including on tariff-exposed sectors. Although a majority mandate provides the Carney government more leeway to implement its agenda, an uncooperative opposition limits its ability to project national unity. This could weaken Canada’s leverage in high-stakes negotiations with the US. In the coming weeks, it will be up to Mark Carney to demonstrate that political control at home can translate into credible leverage abroad.
Simon Polesel
Research Consultant
What’s at Stake
The government will table its Spring Economic Update tomorrow amid ongoing trade tension with the United States, labour market challenges, and the continuing affordability crisis. Over the past year, economic investment has scaled back as businesses grappled with uncertainty and trade tensions. Exports have partially rebounded from steep declines earlier in the year, but U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and motor vehicles remain in effect. Meanwhile, Canadians are still facing affordability pressures as a result of higher expenditures on rent, gas, food, and financial services. Youth unemployment now stands at 13.8%, which is the highest it’s been in ten years. The Carney government will need to walk a delicate line between outlining new spending on big ticket items like defence, infrastructure, and energy, while keeping an eye on the deficit and overall fiscal position. Given the challenges many Canadians are facing balancing their own household budgets, this will be no easy feat. Come Tuesday afternoon, expect the Conservative opposition to be ready and waiting to critique the deficit number and the government’s track record of spending.
Kaitlynn Creighan
Consultant
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