Affordability Focus as Liberals Institute Gas Tax Breaks, Ahead of Spring Economic Statement
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 7 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney published a video Sunday, calling ties to the U.S. ‘weaknesses’ that need to be corrected. The PM committed to releasing future updates on the plan to diversify trade and become less dependent on the United States.
- The Liberal government temporarily suspended the federal gas tax as of April 20th. This will cut the price of gas by up to 10 cents. The move is meant to mitigate the high prices being caused by the war in Iran. Pierre Poilievre is calling on the government to go further and remove all taxes on gas.
- In a combination of interviews and speeches this past week, Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre was critical of the prime minister’s expertise and management of the economy. He argued that Carney has consistently been wrong on every question of importance for the Canadian economy. Poilievre is attempting to connect Carney to the economic agenda of his predecessor Justin Trudeau.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney has landed on Times’ list of most influential people for 2026.
- Canada extended the bidding process for new submarines, accepting amended applications until April 29th. Canada is hoping to receive stronger offers from the two competitors for the bid.
- The federal government may soon be in the market to acquire more office space. While civil servants were primarily working from home the real estate assets of Public Services and Procurement Canada were significantly reduced. With a controversial new return to office mandate there is a struggle to find enough desks for Canada’s bureaucrats.
- Canada’s privacy commissioner is arguing for stronger data laws to prepare Canada for Chinese EVs. There are security concerns about the affordable automobiles being used for surveillance. The commissioner would like there to be more clarity for consumers about what their data is used for.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Bill C-22, the Lawful Access Act, is currently at second reading in the House of Commons. Debate is expected to continue this week.
- Bill C-20, the Build Canada Homes Act, is at consideration at the Standing Committee on Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities.
- Bill C-16, the Protecting Victims Act, is at consideration at the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights.
- Bill C-11, the Military Justice System Modernization Act, is now at report stage in the House of Commons.
- Bill C-20, the Build Canada Homes Act, is at second reading in the House of Commons.
- Bill C-25, the Strong and Free Elections Act, is at second reading in the House of Commons.
Committee Updates
- FOPO is hearing from industry witnesses on the opening and closing of fishing seasons today.
- JUST will convene today and Wednesday to study Bill C-16 (Protecting Victims Act).
- ACVA will review a rehabilitation services contract and barriers to entrepreneurship among veterans today.
- SRSR will study the Chinese EVs agreement today.
- FINA will meet today for their study on household debt in Canada.
- CHPC will study the state of journalism in Canada tomorrow and on Thursday.
- AGRI will hear from growers’ associations on business risk management programs in Canada’s agricultural sector tomorrow.
- PROC will examine the current state of civic resilience in Canada tomorrow.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-13, An Act to implement the Protocol on the Accession of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is under consideration at the Standing Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade.
- Bill C-18, Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement Implementation Act, is under consideration at the Standing Senate Committee for Foreign Affairs and International Trade..
- Bill C-14, the Bail and Sentencing Reform Act, is currently being reviewed by the Standing Senate Committee on Legal and Constitutional Affairs.
- Bill S-202, Warning Label on Alcoholic Beverages, is at third reading in the Senate.
- Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, is at second reading in the Senate.
- Bill C-9, the Combatting Hate Act (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places), is at second reading in the Senate.
Committee Updates
- RIDR is meeting today to study the impact of AI on human rights and economic security in Canada.
- SECD will study defence procurement today.
- OLLO will hear from Quebec anglophones about the Official Languages Act today.
- AGFO will examine and report on food insecurity in Canada tomorrow and Thursday.
- VEAC will study veterans’ homelessness on Wednesday.
- CONF will listen to the Senate Ethics Officer on Wednesday.
- APPA will study Bill S-241 (Indigenous Lotteries) on Wednesday.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Mark Carney is now governing with a majority in parliament following three byelection wins and a series of floor-crossers. His government will now have a stronger ability to expedite legislation without relying on the support of opposition MPs. It is not yet known if the government will adjust House committees to ensure a majority of government members sit on each committee.
- The office of the minister of immigration defended the new rules for refugee applicants, including rejecting claimants who have spent time in Canada prior to applying for refugee status. NDP Immigration Critic Jenny Kwan has been vocal on this issue, suggesting the government is being insensitive in its position.
- Prime Minister Carney announced a ‘Canada Investment Summit’ that will invite world leaders in finance and business to Toronto this fall. The prime minister hopes that this promotion will attract a trillion dollars of new investment into the Canadian economy. Canada’s finance minister boasted that Canada’s predictable energy sector is ripe for investment in the midst of global volatility.
- Minister Miller expressed openness this past week to banning children from social media. Australia recently passed a law banning under-16 year olds from sites like Instagram and Facebook. The Liberal Party of Canada Convention passed a motion in support of such an initiative, but such resolutions are not binding for the government.
- The NDP caucus will be receiving parliamentary funds to hire support staff for their caucus. After losing official party status in last year’s election they had been stripped of all the resources available to parties. The other parties quietly updated the rules last week to allow the NDP to receive $670 000 per year for caucus staff.
- Conservative MPs are backing Pierre Poilievre to stay on as leader and take on Mark Carney in the next election. Questions about the Conservative leader’s longevity have arisen following the floor crossing of four of his MPs to sit on the Liberal bench.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- Premier David Eby backed down on advancing a DRIPA-related confidence vote. Indigenous NDP MLA Joah Philip had committed to opposing his government’s position on Indigenous rights, which would have triggered an election. The governing NDP has only a one-seat majority, which makes the contentious issue of Indigenous land rights difficult to navigate without resulting in the fall of the government and a subsequent election campaign.
- B.C. introduced legislation to implement a modern treaty with Kitselas First Nation. This is the sixth modern treaty in B.C. history, and grants self-government for 36 square kilometres of land near Terrace and Prince Rupert.
- The B.C. Conservatives leadership race has been rocked by allegations of dishonest campaign practices by the B.C. United party to undermine John Rustad’s leadership. Frontrunners Caroline Elliott and Peter Milobar both have ties to B.C. United, which did not run candidates last election but remains registered and collecting donations.
- The Canada Strong and Free Network will host an official B.C. Leader’s Debate this coming Friday, April 24th. Summa’s Kate Harrison will serve as one of the debate moderators.
- British Columbia Premier David Eby has reverted course on pausing key parts of the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act, scrapping plans to table a suspension bill this legislative session.
- Premier Scott Moe announced that Saskatchewan will be adding 200 new addiction treatment spaces, following news that Prairie Harm reduction will be ceasing operations.
- Alberta’s UCP government will take another stab at redrawing riding boundaries. Their recent effort to override independent recommendations in lieu of a Conservative-drawn map was derided as anti-democratic gerrymandering by the NDP opposition.
- Premier Danielle Smith has held firm against pressure to remove the provincial fuel tax on gas. NDP leader Naheed Nenshi has called on her to follow the prime minister’s lead in giving consumers a break in the face of highly volatile prices at the pump.
- The Peguis First Nation has declared a state of emergency and is preparing for evacuations. The Manitoba First Nation is highly vulnerable to flooding.
- Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs have been under scrutiny regarding the mistaken release of 150 prisoners from Ontario jails. Ontario Liberals printed out Monopoly-style ‘get out of jail free’ cards to hand out at Queen’s Park.
- The Ontario NDP tabled an opposition motion to draw attention to the issue of surveillance pricing. This algorithmic practice could result in prices being different for consumers based on data companies have collected. The federal NDP attempted a similar vote last week and was defeated by the Liberals and Conservatives.
- Mayor Olivia Chow joined the premier in announcing the start of tunnelling for the Ontario Line. This groundbreaking new transit line will be the first new subway line built in Toronto since the 1960s.
- The Government of Ontario’s plan to acquire a $28.9M Bombardier Challenger 650 executive jet for the use of Premier Doug Ford was scrapped on Sunday, with the Premier stating that now was not the time for such a purchase.
- Torontonians’ opinions are divided regarding the new Billy Bishop Airport expansion. A new Liaison poll shows that 49% oppose the new jets flying in, and 46% support.
- Navdeep Bains is testing the waters for an Ontario Liberal leadership run. The former Trudeau minister has been working the phones and was gladhanding at the Liberal convention in Montreal last week. It was announced Friday that Bains would be departing his corporate position at Rogers in early May, though a run for leader has not been confirmed.
- U.S.-based defence company LeafStar is seeking to raise $100M to fund an arms factory in Ontario. By setting up a Canadian subsidiary, the corporation could benefit from Canada’s Defence Industrial Strategy.
- Quebec’s new premier, Christine Frechette, was sworn in last week. She is known as a pragmatic and collaborative leader. Her path toward reelection will be extremely difficult as the CAQ remains a deeply unpopular party. The new premier met with the prime minister last week and used the opportunity to defend Quebec’s use of the Notwithstanding Clause.
- Quebec Liberal Leader Charles Milliard is promising to renew the Notwithstanding Clause to protect Quebec’s Bill 96. This law is meant to protect the French language, and is very unpopular with the Liberals’ Montreal anglophone base. The Liberals are currently behind the PQ in most small towns and will need more appeal with nationalist francophones to win.
- A Pallas Data poll shows the Quebec Liberals at 32% of voter intentions, giving them a three-point lead over the Parti Québécois. Some pundits have argued that with Francois Legault out of the picture, the PQ will face more scrutiny over their hardline separatist policies.
- Quebec City Mayor Bruno Marchand has said that it could ‘not be going better’ with Quebec’s new premier. He said that he and the Coalition Avenier Quebec’s Christine Frechette are completely on the same page. The mayor is hoping for the province and the federal government to reach an agreement to fund the new tramway project for Quebec’s capital.
- Premier Tim Houston travelled to Calgary to meet with Premier Danielle Smith and oil and gas business leaders, where he spoke about the prospects for Nova Scotia’s untapped petroleum potential. Houston has appointed himself as minister of energy and is making resource development a priority for his second mandate.
- Premier Susan Holt is celebrating that New Brunswick’s long-term debt rating is still Aa1. Many have criticized the province’s baseline credit rating, which has been downgraded from Aa2 to Aa3. Holt’s recent budget was highly dependent on deficit spending.
- Premier Rob Lantz’s first budget scrapped the P.E.I. Energy Rebate Program. Electricity customers received an average of $175 per year from this program. The funding is being redirected to the P.E.I. essentials benefit, which is means-tested and provides individuals up to $310 per year.
- Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Tony Wakeham seems set to scrap the electricity deal his predecessor signed with Quebec. This agreement is planned to be an essential source of revenue for Newfoundland and Labrador’s cash-strapped government and replacing it could jeopardize the management of the public books.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Canada’s Fiscal Advantage
While the government’s majority mandate is a new development, their communications posture is consistent: position Canada as the strongest economy in the G7 and a top destination for foreign direct investment. Coming out of its spring meetings, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) applauded Canada for its strong fiscal position relative to that of other G7 countries. Defence procurement and infrastructure persists as a top priority for the government, with a steady series of announcements designed to support sovereign capability development in Canada. On energy, the Prime Minister is looking to court investment, including at a forthcoming Canada Investment Summit to take place in the Fall. With Finance Minister Champagne’s Spring Economic Statement forthcoming on April 28th, expect to see a mix of ambition on items like defence and energy grounded in the affordability realities many Canadians face, including at the pumps.
Kaitlynn Creighan
Consultant
No Opposition, No Alibis
Three by-election wins on April 13 combined with five floor-crossings since November pushed the Liberals to 174 seats in the House of Commons, ending a minority Parliament that never quite functioned like one. No opposition party was willing to force an election, which afforded Carney more governing stability than the seat count implied, but opposition parties retained meaningful procedural leverage at committee (and frequently used it to their advantage). Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon has signalled committee memberships may be redrawn to reflect the new standings, while CPC House Leader Andrew Scheer and ethics critic Michael Barrett have already framed any committee reconfiguration as an assault on parliamentary convention.
With no opposition capable of bringing the government down, the more consequential forthcoming challenges for the government are internal ones. Friction over the Alberta pipeline MOU and the Modi G7 invitation illustrated the ideological range inside a caucus that now permanently includes longtime social conservative Marilyn Gladu and former New Democrat Lori Idlout. That diverse coalition may be more challenging to keep together should the government fail to deliver on its agenda; something that will be in the spotlight now that they have the votes needed to advance their priorities without contest, With the next election fixed to 2029, the battleground shifts from direction to execution on housing, cost of living, and economic security in an environment that may not provide the grace period those files require.
Bryce McRae
Senior Consultant
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