Carneymania: Liberals Ride High Going From Convention to By-Elections
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 8 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- Finnish President Alexander Stubb will be in Ottawa on Tuesday and Wednesday, and will hold a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss deepening trade and defence ties between the two countries.
- Today’s by-elections in University–Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest, and Terrebonne will decide the balance of power in the House of Commons. A clean sweep would give Mark Carney’s Liberal Government a narrow majority with 174 seats.
- More than 4,500 delegates gathered for the Liberal National Convention in Montreal this weekend, where Prime Minister Carney delivered a keynote address emphasizing national unity ahead of upcoming byelections.
- At the convention, Liberal delegates adopted a motion in favour of banning youth under 16 years old from accessing social media accounts. Convention voters also voted in favour of a government ban on the use of AI chatbots for any Canadian under the age of 16.
- Following MP Marilyn Gladu’s defection to the Liberals last week, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre dismissed the idea that these departures warranted any reflection on his leadership. With rumours of future floor crossings yet to come, Poilievre told reporters that “our mandate and my leadership does not come from dirty backroom deals. It comes from the people of Canada.”
- The House of Commons returns this week, where Bill C-22, An Act respecting lawful access is slated for second reading debate as early as this afternoon.
- Minister Mélanie Joly delivers opening remarks today at the International Aerospace Innovation Forum in Montreal, an event convening global experts from across the aerospace sector.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Bill C-22, the Lawful Access Act, is currently at second reading in the House of Commons.
- Bill C-20, the Build Canada Homes Act is at consideration at the Standing Committee on Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities.
- Bill C-16, the Protecting Victims Act, is at consideration at the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights.
- Bill C-11, the Military Justice System Modernization Act, is now at report stage in the House of Commons.
Committee Updates
- JUST will examine Bill C-16, the Protecting Victims Act today.
- HUMA will discuss youth employment in Canada today.
- INDU will study the Opportunities, Risks, and Regulation of AI in Canada’s Strategic Industries today.
- ENVI will discuss Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan tomorrow.
- AGRI will examine science in Canadian agriculture and the closure of research centres tomorrow.
- HESA will discuss Canada’s Pharmaceutical Sovereignty tomorrow.
- SECU will discuss Canada-United States Border Management on Wednesday.
- CITT will examine free trade within Canada on Thursday.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-13, An Act to implement the Protocol on the Accession of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is under consideration at the Standing Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade.
- Bill C-18, Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement Implementation Act, is at second reading.
- Bill C-14, the Bail and Sentencing Reform Act, is currently being reviewed by the Standing Senate Committee on Legal and Constitutional Affairs.
- Bill S-202 (Warning Label on Alcoholic Beverages) is at third reading.
- Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, is at second reading in the Senate.
- Bill C-9, the Combatting Hate Act (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places), is at second reading in the Senate.
Committee Updates
- RIDR will examine and report on the impact of artificial intelligence on human rights and economic security in Canada today.
- SECD will examine defence procurement in the context of Canada’s commitment to increase defence spending today.
- TRAN will discuss the opportunities and challenges of artificial intelligence (AI) in the information and communication technology sector on Tuesday.
- ENEV will discuss Bill S-4, An Act to amend the Energy Efficiency Act, on Tuesday.
- AEFA will discuss Bill C-13, An Act to implement the Protocol on the Accession of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the CPTPP, on Wednesday.
- SOCI will discuss Bill S-5, the Connected Care for Canadians Act, on Wednesday.
- LCJC will examine Bill C-14, the Bail and Sentencing Reform Act, on Wednesday.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Four-term MP Marilyn Gladu defected to the Liberals last week, marking the fourth Conservative floor-crossing since last year’s election. The reigning Liberals are now only one seat shy of a majority.
- Minister François-Philippe Champagne met with provincial and territorial counterparts last week to discuss the implementation of Bill C-26. The talks focused on the delivery of $1.7 billion in federal transfers intended to increase housing supply and the rollout of the community stream for the Build Communities Strong Fund
- The federal ethics commissioner issued a ruling last week that Deputy Minister Christiane Fox breached the Conflict of Interest Act. Fox was found to have improperly used her influence to secure a project management job for an underqualified friend.
- Federal Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne recused himself from all matters involving the Crown corporation Alto, as his partner serves as the organization’s Vice President of Environment.
- A Pollara “Alberta Spotlight” poll shows support for Alberta separatism has reached 27%, an all-time high over 5 years of tracking.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- British Columbia will receive $2.2 billion from the federal government’s multi-billion-dollar Build Communities Strong Fund. The provincial funding stream is available for a range of projects, including housing, education and healthcare.
- Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre weighed in on the Aboriginal title debate in Cowichan, B.C, calling for the government to codify the argument that private property rights come first.
- All six B.C Conservative leadership candidates remain in the running, clearing a critical fundraising deadline. The next and final fundraising deadline is Saturday.
- The unemployment rate in B.C. has climbed to 6.7%, its highest level since 2014 (excluding the early pandemic era).
- Premier David Eby maintains that reconciliation efforts will continue despite a proposed three-year suspension of certain sections of the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act. Eby insists the pause is a necessary response to “untenable” legal uncertainty following recent court rulings on provincial mining regulations.
- The Government of Alberta announced $22 million in funding for school security upgrades. School boards will be allocated funding to be put towards window coverings, cameras and other security tools.
- Recall efforts against 24 UCP and two NDP MLAs have officially failed. The petitions, triggered largely by the Alberta teachers’ strike, did not meet the necessary requirements.
- A house review found that Manitoba PC Leader Obby Khan made ‘hateful’ remarks targeting the gender of non-binary Health Minister Uzoma Asagwara during an exchange at the legislature last month.
- Despite financial pressures, Saskatchewan leads the country in optimism with 45% of residents believing the province is on the right track. While the government outperforms provincial peers on several files, public approval remains modest on high-priority issues.
- In response to a potential Liberal majority, Premier Doug Ford said that he has been working “extremely well” with the Carney government, adding that “If it’s a federal government of any political stripe, I will work with them.”
- The Ontario Northlander train has entered the testing phase, ahead of its scheduled launch between Toronto and Timmins later this year. The 740-kilometre route will stop at 16 locations with fares costing roughly 10 per cent more than current bus rates.
- The province announced plans to introduce legislation to shorten teacher education programs from 2 years to 12 months. The move aims to address staffing shortages and save students up to $3,000 in tuition.
- The government is reportedly considering a proposal to expand legal cannabis sale hours, potentially allowing stores to operate later into the night across the province.
- Christine Fréchette has been elected to replace outgoing Premier Francois Legault as leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec. The Quebec legislature remains prorogued until May 5th.
- Quebec’s immigration minister, Jean-François Roberge, is under investigation for alleged data sharing between his department and two CAQ leadership candidates. Roberge has stated that he will cooperate with the ethics watchdog’s office.
- The Commissioner of Official Languages has stated she is ready to challenge provincial laws that contravene minority-language protections. This comes after the province released plans to abolish elected English school boards and replace them with government-run service centers.
- Protests were sparked in Moncton, NB, after the province shut down an unlicensed, Indigenous-owned cannabis store. Owners of the store are fighting the seizure of their property, asserting their sovereign status on unceded Mi’kmaq territory. The Assembly of Nova Scotia Mi’kmaw Chiefs has called for a moratorium on police raids.
- The federal government has announced more than $2.5 million to upgrade water infrastructure in Cornwall, P.E.I., to support community development.
- Protests in St. John’s, NL, called attention to growing staffing shortages in the healthcare sector, putting increased pressure on already stretched hospital pharmacists.
- The Nova Scotia spring legislative session concluded on April 9, following the passage of the Powering the Economy Act and a budget featuring multi-billion-dollar investments in healthcare, housing, and energy development across the province.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
The Liberal National Convention wrapped on Saturday night with a speech from Prime Minister Mark Carney, who used his time on stage to highlight his government’s accomplishments to-date, and what is still to come in the face of internal and external threats to Canada’s sovereignty.
The speech comes as the Liberals, newly buoyed by another CPC floor-crosser, prepare to enter majority territory ahead of today’s by-elections.
What wasn’t in the speech: The Prime Minister didn’t take a victory lap on the number of new, affordable houses that have been built since the Liberals took office — a progress metric that has beleaguered Build Canada Homes. Carney also didn’t give a direct shout out to any of the floor-crossing electeds by name, opting instead to emphasize, in a general sense, MPs that have “switched sides to join” the Liberal team. This inhibition was prudential amid the mixed feelings among the party faithful in the room.
A shift in direction: There were 24 non-binding policy resolutions that were voted on at convention. Policy resolutions endorsing proportional representation and a ranked ballot system were defeated, as well as a resolution restricting the use of the notwithstanding clause. Resolutions in favour of restricting young Canadians’ access to social media platforms and AI chatbots were adopted.
What’s next: The Liberals are likely to emerge with a majority government after today’s by-elections. This will give them a significant runway to enact an accelerated, legislative agenda over the coming weeks as we begin one of the longest parliamentary sitting blocks of this year (4 straight weeks – buckle in).
Three by-elections conclude tonight, featuring two Liberal strongholds in Toronto—Scarborough Southwest and University–Rosedale—and a high-stakes toss-up in Terrebonne, Quebec. Following MP Marilyn Gladu’s unexpected floor-crossing last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government sits just one seat shy of a majority. While the two Toronto seats could mathematically secure that for the government, the Terrebonne contest remains one to watch.
A win for the Liberals in the Quebec riding provides a two-seat cushion, ensuring the government does not have to rely on the Speaker to break ties. For the Bloc Québécois, Terrebonne will prove that they remain the primary voice for Quebec, even in the Montreal suburbs.
Following tonight’s results, keep a close watch on the inevitable committee reshuffle. A Liberal majority would hand the government control of committees, ensuring their legislative agenda moves through the House at a much faster pace.
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