Liberals advance major legislation, while New Democrats prepare to elect a new leader in the lead up to Easter recess
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 8 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- An Air Canada flight from Montreal was involved in a fatal collision at LaGuardia airport in New York late Sunday evening. Two casualties are reported and a number of people remain in hospital.
- MPs return to Ottawa this week after some time away for March Break. On the docket for discussion: Bill C-9 (Combatting Hate Act), C-20 (Build Canada Homes Act), and C-8 (the government’s cybersecurity legislation).
- Prime Minister Mark Carney met with his British counterpart Keir Starmer last week. They discussed the war in Iran and condemned the Islamic regime. The two leaders also reiterated their support for the defence of Ukraine. Carney went on to have an audience with King Charles.
- Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s trip to the United States continues to make headlines in Canada, including news that the much-discussed interview with podcaster Joe Rogan was coordinated directly by Poilievre. The opposition leader met with a combination of elected and industry leaders in Michigan, Texas, and New York.
- NDP leadership hopeful Avi Lewis was accused this week of undermining Rachel Notley’s Alberta NDP government of 2015-2019. Former environment minister Shannon Philips, a supporter of Heather MacPherson, claimed that Lewis practices ‘the politics of subtraction’. She accused him of scuttling the Alberta NDP’s chances of re-election when he authored the LEAP manifesto, which called for the NDP to adopt a more radical approach to climate change.
- MP Lori Idlout is being criticized for having used parliamentary resources to buy Indigenous art from her own business. The Inuit MP for Nunavut made headlines last week when she crossed the floor to join the governing Liberal caucus. The expense mishap in question occurred during her time in the NDP caucus.
- The Department of National Defence confirmed that Canadian troops on exchange with an American unit have not been deployed to serve in the Gulf with that division. Prime Minister Carney has so far expressed conditional support for Trump’s war in Iran, but will not commit Canada’s Armed Forces to serve in the conflict.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Bill C-22, the Lawful Access Act, is currently at second reading in the House of Commons
- Bill C-20, the Build Canada Homes Act is being considered at the Standing Committee on Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities.
- Senate amendments to Bill C-12, Strengthening Canada’s Immigration System and Borders Act, are being reviewed.
- Bill C-16, the Protecting Victims Act, is before the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights.
- Bill C-9, the Combatting Hate Act (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places), is currently at report stage in the House of Commons.
- Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, is also at report stage in the House of Commons.
- Bill C-11, the Military Justice System Modernization Act, is now at report stage in the House of Commons.
Committee Updates
- TRAN will hear testimony from Canada Post executives regarding the changing landscape of truck drivers in Canada today.
- CIMM will convene to study the Supplementary Estimates (C). Minister Lena Diab will appear.
- FOPO will study the Main Estimates. Minister Joanne Thompson will appear.
- SRSR will meet today to study the governance and accountability of federal science policy and institutions
- FINA will question Annette Ryan regarding her nomination to the position of Parliamentary Budget Officer.
- INDU will hear from academics on the opportunities, risks, and regulation of AI in Canada’s strategic industries.
- CHPC will work on their report on the effects of AI on creative industries tomorrow.
- PROC will study the Main Estimates tomorrow.
- OGGO will conduct a comprehensive expenditure review tomorrow. On Thursday, Treasury Board President Shafqat Ali will appear.
- CHPC will consider establishing heritage months for Arabs and Ukrainians on Thursday.
- SRSR will study antimicrobial resistance and research funding on Thursday.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-13, An Act to implement the Protocol on the Accession of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is at second reading in the Senate.
- Bill C-18, Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement Implementation Act, is awaiting first reading in the Senate.
- Bill C-15, the Budget Implementation Act, is currently under consideration in committee.
- Bill C-14, the Bail and Sentencing Reform Act, is currently being reviewed by the Standing Senate Committee on Legal and Constitutional Affairs.
- Bill S-202 (Warning Label on Alcoholic Beverages) is at third reading.
Committee Updates
- RIDR will examine anti-semitism today.
- SECD will hear from industry leaders regarding defence procurement today.
- Witnesses will be testifying at OLLO regarding the Official Languages Act.
- TRCM is studying AI in communications technology and transportation labour disruptions tomorrow.
- AGFO is considering a report on wildfires tomorrow and Wednesday.
- ENEV is examining Newfoundland and Labrador’s offshore oil sector tomorrow.
- LCJC is hearing from Justice Minister Sean Fraser about Bill C-14 (Bail and Sentencing) on Wednesday.
- TRCM is examining local services provided by CBC/Radio-Canada on Wednesday.
- ENEV will hear from witnesses in the Office of the Auditor General on Thursday.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Canada’s defence minister initially stated that he learned about an airstrike on a Canadian Forces camp in Kuwait when he read about it in La Presse. He later walked back his statement, saying he had been briefed by government officials before the incident was in the news.
- Mark Carney’s government tabled the main estimates, showing department plans for spending priorities and cuts. The government is aiming to direct funds toward defence investments and programs that deliver direct support to Canadians.
- Minister Anand outlined criteria under which Canada may assist Gulf nations in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. While the government remains opposed to joining the war against Iran, it remains unclear what kind of help Canada would provide.
- Minister McGuinty made multiple high-value defence spending announcements this week. There is $1.4B for shell manufacturing in Ingersoll, $307M for Colt rifles, and a purchase of 383 Roshel armoured vehicles for Ukraine.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- B.C. MLAs Bruce Banman and Harman Bhangu have dropped out of the B.C. Conservative leadership race. The crowded field still has seven candidates remaining, with some polling suggesting Peter Milobar may be best positioned to defeat the governing NDP should he win the leadership race.
- Premier David Eby is opposing expansions to the federal temporary foreign workers program. He has previously called for the program to be scrapped.
- B.C.’s credit rating dropped from Aa1 to Aa2 in response to government deficits. Premier Eby said it was a choice between delivering essential health funds and preserving a credit rating. Opposition Conservatives say the province is going broke.
- Premier Eby’s approval rating is at an all-time low of 37%. This makes him one of the most unpopular premiers in the country. The BC New Democrats have been in power for nine years.
- Danielle Smith is defending her decision to take a Saudi government flight to tour an oil well. The trip took place last October and was discovered through budget questions posed by the opposition NDP.
- Alberta is limiting Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) to those whose natural death is foreseeable within one year. To this point, no province has restricted the MAiD principles outlined by the federal government and the Supreme Court.
- The Saskatchewan budget was tabled, showing an $819M deficit. The spending is mostly driven by health and education expenditures.
- Manitoba’s finance minister is defending his government’s level of spending on education. Some school divisions are raising education property taxes to compensate for a deficit in revenue from the provincial government. The Kinew government will table its budget on Tuesday March 24th.
- Doug Ford is taking action to prevent scalpers from profiting off ticket resale. The proposed legislative changes will ban ticket resellers from charging more than they paid for the tickets. The announcement comes ahead of the Ontario government’s budget, which will be tabled Thursday of this week.
- The premier praised a man who shot a home invader, saying that he should have shot the criminal a few more times. Both Ford and the federal Tories have been calling for laws that allow property owners greater freedom to protect themselves from intruders.
- The Ontario PCs are polling at 44%, down from a high of 53% in the summer. Support seems to have levelled out after months of slow decline. Political commentators are now questioning whether Ford can defeat a fourth Ontario Liberal leader in the next election.
- Ontario will introduce a new centralized electronic database of health records. This is meant to improve information sharing among family doctors.
- Ontario Liberal Party leadership hopeful Nate Erskine-Smith is facing competition for a vacant Scarborough riding. Qadira Jackson, who ran for the OLP in the riding during the last election, is taking the fight to Erskine-Smith. She says the people of Scarborough Southwest deserve a full-time MPP and not someone who refused to give up their seat in the House of Commons.
- Quebec’s budget – and the final one for outgoing Premier Francois Legault – was tabled last week with a $9.9B deficit, and no new major spending items. The race to replace Legault as CAQ leader is fully underway.
- Critics allege that the new budget neglects Montreal’s transit and health care needs. There were hopes that a new hospital for Montreal’s east end would be funded, but that was not the case.
- MNA Frederic Beauchemin is switching ridings to Marguerite-Bourgeoys to Brome-Missiquoi for the next election. The deputy leader of the Liberal Party has held a safe Montreal riding since 2022, but will now be running in his hometown riding which is currently held by the CAQ.
- PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon announced that federal civil servants will lose their jobs in an independent Quebec. His plan for a new nation involves efficiencies found by eliminating the federal bureaucracy within its borders.
- Former PLQ and PQ ministers are urging the government of Quebec not to invoke the notwithstanding clause to deny daycare subsidies to refugees. This activist coalition considers such an action to be cruel.
- Susan Holt’s Liberal government is adding six billion dollars to New Brunswick’s debt over the next three years. Premier Holt initially promised to balance the budget every year of her mandate. The budget focused on health care spending, with program cuts and increased tax measures meant to mitigate the increased deficits.
- Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Tony Wakeham is taking heat from the opposition for paying a political advisor using health care funds. The premier dismissed the criticism as political theatre and insisted that the funds are being used for advice on the health care system.
- Prince Edward Islanders are mourning the passing of Health Minister Mark McLane. The 56-year-old was first elected in a 2021 by-election for the riding of Cornwall-Meadowbank.
- The Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick is appealing to the Supreme Court in their legal battle for recognition of title to a vast swathe of New Brunswick. A Superior Court previously ruled against the nation, saying that giving title over privately-owned and Crown land would be detrimental to reconciliation. This decision stands in contrast to the recent Cowichan decision in BC. It gave title over private land to the First Nation.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
The NDP leadership race is entering its final days, with a winner set to be declared on March 29th. It has been an eventful time for the NDP, with one of their few elected representatives, Nunavut’s Lori Idlout, crossing the floor to join Prime Minister Carney’s government two weeks ago.
Leadership front runner Avi Lewis has led in polling and fundraising throughout the campaign, but encountered turbulence this week based on previous activism some New Democrats believe will harm the party’s chances in a general election. Meanwhile, current NDP MP Heather McPherson and labour leader Rob Ashton are both still contenders in the race, with some polls indicating McPherson’s name recognition could pose a challenge to Lewis.
This is a pivotal moment for the NDP. Following their worst election result in decades, the job for the new leader will be to help navigate the party’s position and offer a viable alternative to dominant Liberal and Conservative parties. The leader will need to shape opinions on Canada’s relationship with the U.S., on its role on the international stage, and with domestic issues such as cost of living.
While Lewis’ fundraising success is a historical indicator of leadership victory, the more challenging job will come after March 29th.
Around this time last year, Prime Minister Carney was criss-crossing the nation selling himself to Canadians as a pragmatic leader with a background in navigating nations and businesses through tumultuous times.
One year later, Carney’s pragmatism continues to shape his government’s legislative agenda. When his government faced fierce criticism of Bill C-2 from both opposition and stakeholders, it pivoted to a more collaborative approach by tabling Bill C-12. It also recently tabled Bill C-22, extracting lawful access provisions from C-2 while also incorporating stakeholder feedback. Carney has also been able to expedite key legislation like the budget bill through FINA at an unprecedented pace.
The spirit of bipartisan cooperation has extended beyond Parliament. During a recent appearance on the Joe Rogan experience, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre notably refrained from criticising the prime minister and instead signalled a unified “Team Canada” approach which saw him promoting Canadian interests in the US.
As the House returns today, the focus is on whether or not this cooperation will continue, particularly as we approach by-elections that could deliver the Carney Liberals a majority government. For now, pragmatism is translating to polling success for the Prime Minister, who continues to enjoy a healthy lead in most public opinion research.
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