Carney’s Silver Linings: New Floor Crosser and Budget Bill on Track
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 9 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- Global Affairs Canada issued a shelter‑in‑place advisory for Puerto Vallarta and parts of Jalisco after sudden violence involving road blockades, burning vehicles, and clashes between federal forces and armed groups. The violence was sparked by the death of a local cartel leader, and airlines have suspended travel into the region.
- The U.S Supreme Court issued a 6–3 ruling determining that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the President broad unilateral tariff authority. The ruling is a relief for Canada, as it removes a potential bargaining tool in CUSMA negotiations but offers no long‑awaited relief for the steel, aluminum, auto, and lumber industries, which remain targeted under sectoral tariffs. In response, Trump raised his new global tariff rate to 15 per cent, while CUSMA‑compliant goods from Canada and Mexico remain exempt.
- The Senate approved an expedited review process for Bill C‑12 (Strengthening Canada’s Immigration System and Borders Act), requiring the SECD committee to report back by February 26, after which the bill will automatically move to third reading.
- By unanimous consent, the House set an expedited process for Bill C‑15, the Budget Implementation Act, moving that the Finance Committee report the bill back to the House by February 25, after which it will automatically move to report stage, and then third reading.
- The federal government unveiled its long awaited Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS), which aims to boost domestic defence manufacturing while reducing dependence on American suppliers. The strategy is backed by $6.6 billion, and promises to grow Canadian defence industry revenues by 240% over the next nine years.
- Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux crossed the floor from the Conservatives to join the governing Liberals, becoming the third CPC MP to do so in recent months. With three byelections coming up in the near future, the Carney Government is now only three seats shy of a slim majority.
- Federal Artificial Intelligence Minister Evan Solomon says “all options are on the table” for online safety regulations following news reports that OpenAI did not disclose troubling online activity from the Tumbler Ridge shooter to authorities.
- U.S.-Canada Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc wrapped up a six-day trade mission to Mexico, emerging with reassurances that Mexico remains firmly committed to preserving the trilateral CUSMA agreement ahead of this year’s high-stakes review.
- Mark Wiseman was officially sworn in as Canada’s new ambassador to the United States, presenting his credentials to President Trump at a critical time in the bilateral relationship. The veteran investment banker and pension fund manager will be tasked with navigating tariff relief and laying the groundwork for the CUSMA review later this year.
- Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre will be the keynote speaker at the Economic Club on Thursday to share his vision for the future of Canada–US relations.
- Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced an October referendum on provincial immigration, access to services, and federal influence, citing budget pressures, falling oil prices, and what she describes as strain from rapid population growth and federal policies.
- In advance of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trip to India this week, the country’s High Commissioner Dinesh Patnaik says Canada could finalize a comprehensive trade deal with New Delhi within a year. The prime minister will subsequently visit Australia and Japan to boost trade and investment.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Bill C-15, the Budget Implementation Act, is currently undergoing review at the Standing Committee on Finance.
- Bill C-16, the Protecting Victims Act, is under consideration at the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights.
- Bill C-9, the Combatting Hate Act (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places), is currently before the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights.
- Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, is currently under consideration at the Standing Committee on Public Safety and National Security.
- Bill C-11, the Military Justice System Modernization Act, is at report stage in the House of Commons.
- Bill C-20, the Build Canada Homes Act is currently at second reading.
Committee Updates
- TRAN will host Minister MacKinnon, who will appear to discuss VIA Rail’s safety and customer service on February 23.
- INDU will consider a draft report of the Defence Industrial Strategy on February 23.
- SECU will conduct a clause-by-clause of Bill C-8, an act amending the Telecommunications Act, on February 24.
- CHPC will discuss the Effects of Technological Advances in Artificial Intelligence on the Creative Industries on February 24.
- OGGO will discuss certain clauses of Bill C-15, the Budget Implementation Act on February 24.
- PROC will discuss the “Longest Ballot Committee” on February 26.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-12, the Strengthening Canada’s Immigration System and Borders Act, is at consideration at the Standing Senate Committee on National Security, Defence and Veterans Affairs.
- BillC-14, the Bail and Sentencing Reform Act, is currently awaiting first reading.
- Bill S-4, the Act to amend the Energy Efficiency Act, is at second reading.
- Bill S-5, An Act respecting the interoperability of health information technology and to prohibit data blocking by health information technology vendors, is at second reading.
Committee Updates
- SECD is set to conduct a clause-by-clause consideration of Bill C-12, the Strengthening Canada’s Immigration System and Borders Act today.
- LCJC will consider draft reports of Bill S-205, An Act to amend the Corrections and Conditional Release Act and Bill S-209, An Act to restrict young persons’ online access to pornographic material on Wednesday
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Prime Minister Carney appointed former Privy Council clerk Janice Charette as chief negotiator to the United States in advance of the upcoming scheduled review of CUSMA.
- Conservative MP Jamil Jivani travelled to Washington, D.C, to meet with U.S administration officials earlier this month. Jivani’s subsequent comments about Canadians’ unjustified negative attitudes toward the United States prompted a sharp rebuke from Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, who noted that “[Jivani] speaks for himself, and I speak for the party”.
- The Supreme Court invalidated the results of the federal election in the Terrebonne, QC riding, where Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste won by a single vote due to an error by Elections Canada. The Bloc Québécois candidate pushed the court for a new election, when a voter’s mail in ballot was found to have been returned due to a misprint.
- NDP candidates squared off in the final leadership debate on Thursday, pitching their visions for the party in advance of the leadership vote at the end of March. The federal NDP is facing the difficult task of rebuilding after the last federal election, which left the party with only seven seats in the House of Commons.
- U.S President Donald Trump threatened to block the opening of the nearly-complete Gordie Howe International Bridge, claiming the U.S. was receiving nothing from the project and demanding partial ownership. PM Carney spoke to the President and clarified that Canada financed the bridge in full and that ownership is already shared with the state of Michigan.
- A bipartisan majority in the U.S. House of Representatives voted to roll back Trump’s fentanyl-related tariffs on Canada – though the motion fell short of the two-thirds threshold needed to override a presidential veto. The resolution now heads to the Senate, where its fate remains uncertain.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- The B.C government forecasted a $13.3 billion deficit for 2026/2027, prompting announcements of a series of tax increases and public sector cuts. 15,000 job cuts are expected to occur over the next three years.
- The B.C Green party backed out of the co-operation agreement with the NDP Government, on the grounds that the province has failed to fulfil its commitments under the Co-operation and Responsible Government Accord (CARGA) signed in 2024.
- Premier Eby issued a statement expressing frustration over reports that OpenAI did not notify authorities of disturbing online activity from the Tumbler Ridge mass shooter. He said the government would use all tools at its disposal to ensure the tragedy is fully investigated.
- The Alberta Government will table the 2026/2027 budget on February 26th, warning that significant deficits are to be expected.
- Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced an October referendum on provincial immigration, access to services, and federal influence, citing budget pressures, falling oil prices, and what she describes as strain from rapid population growth and federal policies.
- The Alberta separatism petition has entered its second month of gathering signatures and must collect nearly 178,000 names by May. Premier Danielle Smith says that she has not signed any petitions at this stage.
- The Government of Saskatchewan has issued special warrants to unlock $650 million in additional spending in advance of the upcoming provincial budget.
- Premier Doug Ford told students to “focus on the jobs of the future,” as the province made deep cuts to the Ontario Student Assistance Program (OSAP) and raised tuition prices. Starting fall 2026, OSAP grants will decrease from 85 to 25 percent.
- General Motors Canada announced $63 million in new investment for the Oshawa Assembly plant to facilitate manufacturing of next gen pickup trucks.
- Premier Doug Ford has cancelled plans for an LCBO boycott of Crown Royal whiskey, after producer Diageo agreed to nearly $23 million in new investment in the province.
- A public inquiry into the SAAQCLIC scandal found that the automobile insurance board intentionally misled the public about the full cost of the project. Quebec Premier François Legault announced that he would look into legal options against the SAAQ board members responsible.
- Applications submitted through the Quebec Experience Program (PEQ), a pathway to permanent residency for skilled workers in Quebec, are currently stalled as CAQ leadership candidates debate possible exemptions following the program’s cancellation. Following the closure of the PEQ in November 2025, the Skilled Worker Selection Program (PSTQ) remains the only path to permanent residency for economic immigrants in Quebec.
- Quebec leaders promoted the city of Montreal as the future home of the International Defence, Security and Resilience Bank (DSRB). The bank aims to be a multilateral institution designed to help like-minded allies finance their defence capacities.
- Québec solidaire is bending its own gender parity rules to potentially accommodate federal NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice, who is eyeing a provincial run in the Montreal riding of Gouin ahead of the next Quebec election. The move is drawing internal scrutiny, as the party had previously committed to fielding women or non-binary candidates in all ridings it currently holds.
- New Brunswick’s budget deficit is projected to be $1.3 billion in 2026/2027, with Finance Minister René Legacy warning that it will be extremely difficult for the government to fulfill its promise of a balanced budget.
- Rob Lantz has taken office as Prince Edward Island’s premier after securing leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party, emphasizing that there are no plans for a spring election.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Feelin’ Electric
Canada’s electricity demands are projected to double before 2050. With the country’s electricity grid better connected to the United States than across provinces, Canada remains a net exporter of electricity. The federal government will release a national electricity strategy in the coming weeks. It will be centred on job creation, economic growth, regulatory certainty, interprovincial connectivity and the megaprojects that will undergird these goals.
What We’re Watching: How will the federal government address the energy vacuum in the room: data centres? Hydro-Quebec recently asked the Quebec government to nearly double the rates for new data centres and BC’s Bill 31 requires data centre projects to compete in a new selection process. These provincial asks may contradict the federal government’s ambitions to rapidly scale AI adoption and job creation.
Claire Smith
Senior Consultant
Crossing to a Majority? Not So Fast.
The Liberals will have a new member on the government benches when Parliament resumes sitting today after MP Matt Jeneroux (Edmonton Riverbend) crossed the floor from the Conservatives last week. This brings the Liberals within three seats of the coveted 172 needed for a majority, and they have an opportunity to secure it with upcoming byelections in favourable ridings in Ontario and a competitive race in Terrebonne, Quebec.
Even if the Liberals reach 172 seats, it would be far from a comfortable majority. Watch for a sustained team pursuit of floor-crossers. While the predicament has election observers giddy about a potential spring snap election, the current likelihood remains low. Prime Minister Carney must balance not appearing too opportunistic, particularly as Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre appears willing to cooperate with the government in achieving policy goals where parties are aligned. With the Budget Implementation Act (Bill C-15) now on track to clear the committee process, parliamentary gridlock isn’t an obstacle for the government’s agenda nor is it an election narrative.
But don’t let the collaboration fool you. Both leaders will seek opportunities to differentiate themselves and test messaging in the coming weeks. In a minority parliament, the possibility of going to the polls can always arise, especially when the government’s polling numbers rise.
Ethan Letkeman
Research Consultant
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