Who Will Own the Political Podium?
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 8 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- The federal government is expected to announce its Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS) this week, after months of anticipation and a steady increase in defence expenditures.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney released the government’s strategy to transform the Canadian auto industry. He announced accelerated investment in auto manufacturing, with $3 billion from the Strategic Response Fund and up to $100 million from the Regional Tariff Response Initiative. The government further committed to introducing stronger emissions standards and making EVs more affordable. They also promised to make the sector more competitive through trade and support for employees as the industry transitions.
- The Honourable Maninder Sidhu, Minister of International Trade, will be in Singapore today and tomorrow to attend the Canada-in-Asia Conference. While there, he aims to advance trade with Singapore and Vietnam, which are partners in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
- Ottawa has been weighing a $60B deal to acquire up to 12 new diesel-electric submarines to replace the Victoria class by 2035. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems and Hanwha are the two finalists, with proposals due on March 2nd. Secretary of State for Defence Procurement Stephen Fuhr visited Thyssenkrup Marine Systems in late December, and concluded a two-day trip to South Korea last week, with a stop at Hanwha.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Bill C-16, the Protecting Victims Act, has been referred to the justice committee and is awaiting its first meeting.
- Bill C-15, the Budget Implementation Act, is currently undergoing committee review at the Standing Committee on Finance and other committees.
- Bill C-20, the Build Canada Homes Act was introduced last Thursday and is currently at second reading.
- Bill C-9, the Combatting Hate Act (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places), is currently before the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights.
- Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, is under consideration at the Standing Committee on Public Safety and National Security.
- Bill C-10, the Commissioner for Modern Treaty Implementation Act, is at second reading.
- Bill C-11, the Military Justice System Modernization Act, is before the Standing Committee on National Defence.
- Bill C-14, the Bail and Sentencing Reform Act, is under consideration at the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights.
Committee Updates
- PACP will meet today to discuss the Public Accounts of Canada 2024 and Public Accounts of Canada 2025. The Auditor General will be appearing to testify.
- TRAN will meet today to discuss the Competition Act and Air Travel in Northern, Rural, and Remote Communities of Canada.
- NDDN will meet today to review the Nexus Between National Defence, National Security and Canada’s Critical Minerals Sector.
- RNNR will meet this week to discuss Canadian energy exports.
- SECU will meet this week to do clause-by-clause of Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts
- OGGO will meet this week to do clause-by-clause of Bill C-15, Budget 2025 Implementation Act and to discuss the creation and planning of the defence investment agency.
- SRSR will meet this week to discuss innovation and scientific research concerning artificial intelligence.
- FAAE will meet this week to discuss Canada’s Arctic strategy.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-19, the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit Act, is at second reading.
- Bill C-4, the Making Life More Affordable for Canadians Act, is under consideration at the Standing Senate Committee on National Finance.
- Bill C-12, Strengthening Canada’s Immigration System and Borders Act, is currently under consideration at the Standing Senate Committee on National Security, Defence and Veterans Affairs. The Senate passed a motion to require the committee report the bill back no later than February 24th.
Committee Updates
- TRCM will meet on Tuesday to discuss Bill C-15, the Budget 2025 Implementation Act.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Prime Minister Carney and Pierre Pollievre met one-on-one to discuss how they could work together. On social media, both leaders stressed the need for swift change with a focus on building the economy, cutting costs, and making Canada safer. Polliervre expressed his disappointment with the deficit and offered suggestions on how to attract investment.
- The Trump administration’s Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury, stated that the United States would not drop tariffs if Ottawa were to do the same for American goods. Bessent cited the lowering of tariffs on Chinese EVs coming into Canada from 100% to 6%, stating that they cannot allow Chinese EVs across the northern border.
- After many years out of the public eye, former prime minister Stephen Harper was in Ottawa this week to attend the unveiling of his official portrait on Parliament Hill. He also attended a gala commemorating the twentieth anniversary of his government. Harper urged the Liberals and Conservatives to come together in the face of President Donald Trump and internal separatist threats. He stressed the importance of national unity, trade diversification, and resilience.
- Canada and France have opened up consulates in Greenland’s capital, Nuuk, to deepen Arctic ties amidst geopolitical tensions from the United States. Foreign affairs minister Anita Anand visited Greenland on Friday to attend the opening of the Canadian consulate.
- Today is the last day that the Prime Minister of Luxembourg will be in Canada following a three-day delegation to discuss advanced manufacturing infrastructure, aerospace, space and related technologies, and financial services.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- Former Conservative leader John Rustad said that he will make himself available for a potential leadership bid. This follows a report that he recently requested a leadership application form. Rustad stepped down as leader on December 4th after losing the confidence of his caucus and the party’s governing council.
- With the addition of Bruce Banman and Steve Kooner, there are currently 10 candidates in the conservative leadership race. Banman formerly served as party whip, while Konner served as opposition critic for the attorney general.
- BC finance minister, Brenda Bailey, stated that the government needs to get its $11.2 billion dollar deficit under control. Premier Eby promised that cuts would be announced on February 17th and said they would be in the form of bureaucratic and administrative reductions.
- Alberta Premier Danielle Smith plans to withhold funding for the Alberta justice system to protest the unilateral appointment of judges by the federal government. She is demanding that Alberta be consulted on appointments to the Alberta King’s Bench, Court of Appeal, and the Supreme Court of Canada. Smith argued that bilingualism requirements mean that Alberta is underrepresented in judicial appointments.
- Former Liberal minister Stephan Dion is calling on Premier Smith to clarify her position on the separatist movement in Alberta, stating that he has “no patience for separatist blackmail”.
- Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew announced $250,000 for a conservation area in Hudson Bay. The money will support federal consideration of Western Hudson Bay as a national marine conservation area.
- Manitoba’s Opposition Leader Obby Khan is looking to collaborate with the Kinew government to fix health care in Manitoba. An NDP Minister accused Khan of playing politics by pointing to specific incidents in hospitals.
- The Ontario Liberal Party will select its next leader on November 21st, 2026, kicking off its third leadership race since 2020. Leadership hopefuls have until July 31st to submit their nomination papers.
- Following 15 years of construction, the Eglinton Crosstown LRT is now operational. Despite the project’s significant construction delays and cost overruns, Ontario Premier Doug Ford indicated that he will not hold a public inquiry.
- Last Friday, automaker Stellantis announced that it will be selling its stake in the NextStar battery plant in Windsor to Korean battery manufacturer LG Energy Solution. The acquisition of Stellantis’ stake was met with praise by Unifor Local 444 President James Stewart.
- The federal NDP leader, Don Davies, accused Ontario NDP deputy leader Doly Begum of undermining democracy after she announced that she will run as a federal Liberal in an upcoming by-election. Begum is the second by-election candidate announced by the Liberals this year. Public healthcare advocate Dr. Danielle Martin will run for the party in University-Rosedale.
- The defection to the federal Liberal Party may reshape the Ontario political scene. Federal MP Nate Erskine-Smith, a rumoured candidate in the race to replace Bonnie Crombie, plans to run for Begum’s seat.
- The Quebec National Assembly resumed sitting last Tuesday amid major political upheaval with the governing Coalition Avenir Québec and the Quebec Liberal Party. Both parties are preoccupied with leadership races. This leaves Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who currently leads in the polls, with the political stage to himself.
- The possibility of a referendum in Quebec is higher than it has been in decades. Despite the fact that support for sovereignty is only 30%, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon promises to hold a referendum if he wins the next election.
- Quebec’s minister of immigration Jean-François Roberge has stated that there will be a priority placed on applications from healthcare workers. This follows concerns raised by the Quebec Liberal Party and the Centre hospitalier universitaire de Québec. They suggested that recent immigration changes would result in the loss of thousands of nurses and patient attendants.
- Rob Lantz defeated Mark Ledwell over the weekend to become the PC leader of PEI and premier-designate. For Lantz, it’s a return to the top job. He served as premier for about ten months after the resignation of Dennis King, before stepping down to run for the leadership.
- Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Tony Wakeham stated last week that his province has not given up on its hopes of reaching an agreement with Quebec on Churchill Falls. Wakeham added that Newfoundland’s hydro electricity is in high demand and that there is a great opportunity for NL within the prime minister’s national energy strategy.
- Last week, Nova Scotia and Massachusetts signed a memorandum of understanding for Nova Scotia to supply the state with clean energy from offshore wind. With this supply chain, the hope is to create new jobs, enhance clean energy affordability, and facilitate the development of regional infrastructure.
- The New Brunswick government is looking for ways to reduce its rising debt, which is forecasted to hit $834.7 million. This could result in highway tolls, fee and permit increases, tightening of owed money collections, better enforcement of unreported lobster landings, a reduction of civil service, and the selling of government assets. Despite this, economists say that New Brunswick is in a solid financial position.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Speculation is still swirling in Ottawa over the possibility of a snap federal election. Prime Minister Carney continues to poach opposition members for his team. Doly Begum, the former Deputy Leader of the Ontario NDP, will now run as a candidate in Scarborough. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party has launched its nomination process.
The strategic argument for an early vote is the prime minister’s strong public opinion numbers, his widely-praised Davos speech, the recently announced auto strategy, and the enhanced Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit.
Snap elections, however, are always a gamble. Just two seats shy of a majority, Carney’s Liberals have had little difficulty obtaining the necessary support to pass legislation and survive votes of confidence. There may also be future floor-crossers, so is a spring trip to the polls worth the risk?
The test for early election oddsmakers will be the fate of the Budget Implementation Act that is currently being reviewed by the House of Commons Finance Committee. Should it be stalled, heavily amended or headed for defeat, all bets are on.
Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s portrait unveiling not only commemorated a historical milestone but also might signal the beginning of a new one. Harper’s call for bipartisan cooperation was swiftly acted upon by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who met with Prime Minister Mark Carney this week to discuss shared priorities, primarily affordability, bail reform, and Canada-US trade negotiations.
The spirit of cooperation also translated into action in committee, where the government’s bail reform legislation was fast-tracked and sent to the Senate. The Budget Implementation Act (BIA), currently before committee, could also see the Conservatives strike deals to speed up elements of the legislation that deliver tax breaks such as increasing the Lifetime Capital Gains Exemption.
On the Canada-U.S. relations front, Conservative MP Jamil Jivani leveraged his relationship with U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance to secure meetings with his former classmate and other White House officials. Despite this renewed spirit of cooperation, his trip to Washington was met with mixed reactions. This underscores that while alignment on priorities is growing, friction remains over tactics, messaging, and the appropriate role of the opposition’s engagement in foreign affairs.
As always, the true test for bipartisan cooperation is whether it can withstand wedge issues and partisan friction to deliver results for Canadians.
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