Conservatives Give Poilievre Strong Mandate. Next up: Winning Over Canadians
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 11 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre received 87.4% support in his leadership review at the party’s leadership convention in Calgary. The result followed a campaign style speech focused on party unity and priorities ahead.
- Conservative delegates voted to adopt several new policies at their Calgary Convention. Conservative policy now supports a ‘stand your ground’ self-defence law, tighter immigration laws, an end to DEI, and a firm opposition to decriminalizing drugs. A motion supporting conversion therapy failed on the convention floor.
- Liberals announced Danielle Martin as their byelection candidate to take over Chrystia Freeland’s Toronto riding. Martin is a physician and leads UofT’s department of family and community medicine. University–Rosedale is considered a safe Liberal seat.
- Prime Minister Carney and the premiers say they are united ahead of upcoming trade negotiations with the United States. Premier Kinew and Premier Ford have publicly sparred over Ford’s threats to pull Crown Royal whisky off of LCBO shelves if the company proceeds with its plan to move an Ontario bottling facility to the U.S., which led to questions about a fracturing of the united front. The premiers also agreed to meet with the prime minister on a monthly basis when CUSMA talks begin.
- Other outputs from the First Ministers’ meeting included Prime Minister Carney announcing a forthcoming national electricity strategy and 11 new MPO projects. On Friday, Energy Minister Tim Hodgson said the strategy would be released in the coming weeks and would focus on removing barriers between provincial markets.
- B.C. Premier David Eby called meetings between U.S. officials and Albertan separatists “treason”. Prime Minister Carney, New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford also criticized the meeting as an insult to Canadian sovereignty.
- Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has defended Alberta separatists in response to B.C. Premier David Eby’s “treason” comment. She said that she won’t demonize Albertans who are open to separatism, especially after the province was “under attack” by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government for ten years.
- Avi Lewis has a wide fundraising lead in the NDP leadership race. The left-wing activist has been criticized by rivals Rob Ashton and Heather McPherson for undermining provincial NDP governments, and not trying to expand NDP support beyond the ideological base.
- Canada is collaborating with South Korea in an attempt to draw new auto sector investment to Canada. The agreement focuses on supply chains, critical minerals, and emerging technology in hydrogen energy.
- President Trump has put Canadian aerospace in his crosshairs, after a Gulfstream jet failed to pass the Canadian approvals process. Bombardier has reached out to the U.S. to highlight the extent of their industrial presence south of the border.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Bill C-16, the Protecting Victims Act, is at second reading.
- Bill C-15, the Budget Implementation Act, is currently undergoing committee review at the Standing Committee on Finance.
- Bill C-9, the Combatting Hate Act (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places), is currently before the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights.
- Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, is currently under consideration at the Standing Committee on Public Safety and National Security.
- Bill C-10, the Commissioner for Modern Treaty Implementation Act, is currently at second reading.
- Bill C-11, the Military Justice System Modernization Act, is currently before the Standing Committee on National Defence.
- Bill C-14, the Bail and Sentencing Reform Act, is currently under consideration at the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights.
Committee Updates
- PACP will meet in-camera today to consider the auditor general’s report on delivering Canada’s future fighter jet capability. They will also consider the report on Canada’s Trade Corridors Fund.
- CIMM will meet today to discuss the international study program and study permits.
- SRSR is studying the mandate of the minister of industry, and the minister of artificial intelligence and digital innovation today.
- NDDN is considering Bill C-11, the Military Justice System Modernization Act today.
- ETHI is studying challenges posed by artificial intelligence and its regulation today.
- CHPC will meet tomorrow to study the effects of influencers and social media content on children.
- PROC will convene tomorrow to examine foreign election interference.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-4, An Act respecting certain affordability measures for Canadians and another measure, has completed third reading in the House and is currently awaiting its first debate at second reading in the Senate.
- Bill C-12, Strengthening Canada’s Immigration System and Borders Act, has completed third reading in the House and hasn’t yet been debated in the Senate, remaining on the order paper for second reading.
Committee Updates
- LCJC will meet on February 5th to study Bill S-209, the Protecting Young Persons from Exposure to Pornography Act.
- Various Senate committees will be studying budget measures throughout the week.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Roughly 100 Alberta separatists came together in Edmonton to hear from their de facto leader, constitutional lawyer Jeff Rath. The rally focused criticism on Prime Minister Carney and immigrants. Rath argued that an independent Alberta would be swiftly recognized by right-wing governments in Argentina, Israel, and Hungary.
- As anticipated, the Bank of Canada announced it would hold interest rates steady; its current policy rate is 2.25%. Governor Tiff Macklem warned that the future is still uncertain and that the renegotiation of CUSMA could affect rates.
- It is rumoured that Ottawa may split its fighter jet procurement, opting for half Saab Gripens and half Lockheed-Martin F-35s. The government is seeking a balance between supporting Canadians jobs, diversifying from the U.S., and equipping the military with the strongest option.
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called on Prime Minister Carney to stop virtue signaling in CUSMA negotiations. Bessent is accusing Carney of picking a fight to win cheap political points domestically.
- Prime Minister Carney had social media buzzing from his red carpet interaction with Heated Rivalry star Hudson Williams, at the CMPA Prime Time conference in Ottawa last week. The hit Canadian show came up at the First Ministers’ Meeting media availability when Premier Kinew joked there is no “heated rivalry” between him and Premier Ford.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- Seven candidates are now in the race to lead the B.C. Conservatives. This includes two sitting MLAs and various business leaders. Candidate cutoff is February 16 and the party will unveil the results on May 30.
- Premier David Eby described a recent meeting with Prime Minister Carney and Premier Smith as cordial, however no significant updates on pipeline policy came out of the meeting.
- Surrey Mayor Brenda Locke is calling for a national state of emergency to tackle the extortion crisis affecting communities across Canada. Premier David Eby described the recent wave of extortion in B.C. as a “terror attack in slow-motion”. He has asked the federal Parliament to pass legislation to address the violence in Surrey.
- Alberta separatist Jeff Rath revealed that members of Premier Smith’s UCP caucus have signed his petition for an independence referendum. The petition must reach 178,000 signatures by May to initiate a referendum.
- Premier Kinew wants Crown Royal to engage in good faith with Premier Ford to find a path forward. Ford’s threat to pull Crown Royal off shelves would hit the company hard, as the LCBO is the brand’s largest buyer.
- Saskatchewan’s NDP opposition is calling on the government to address hospital safety. The NDP has been attempting to seize health care as the issue that can weaken Premier Scott Moe’s hold on power.
- Premier Doug Ford is seeking a fourth term. He spoke to the 1,000 delegates at the party’s convention over the weekend, vowing to “protect Ontario” from President Donald Trump. The meeting of provincial Tories took place the same weekend as the federal convention in Calgary, forcing Ontario Conservatives to choose between which event to attend.
- Premier Ford flip-floped on allowing the media to attend the Party’s convention last weekend. The party was set to bar journalists from accessing the event, but reversed course days later.
- Premier Ford has said he is taking a Team Canada approach, but will continue to be vocal in defence of the interests of Ontario. His pressure tactics against the owners of Crown Royal and the disagreement with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew over the issue have raised questions about the united front of provinces against the U.S.
- Several candidates are exploring running for the Ontario Liberal leadership. MPP’s Rob Cerjanec and Lee Fairclough seem likely to enter the race, and others, including Mike Crawley, Nate Erskine-Smith, Eric Lombardi, Adil Shamji and Josh Matlow, are considering bids.
- Ontario’s NDP has called upon the government to cancel exports of Ontario-made armoured vehicles to America for use by ICE. Doug Ford responded that he has no say on which goods cross the border.
- Quebec Liberal interim leader Marc Tanguay warned that any successor to Premier Legault at the helm of the CAQ would ultimately support a “yes” vote in a future independence referendum. With the Parti Quebecois positioned to form government, the Liberals are sharpening their message by framing the prospect of another referendum as a central political risk for voters.
- Bernard Drainville and Christine Frechette have emerged as the frontrunners in the race to lead the CAQ leadership, both bringing experience as former PQ ministers and nationalist credentials. Frechette has sought to differentiate herself through outreach to anglophone voters, a group the CAQ has traditionally struggled to engage.
- PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon criticized Premier Doug Ford for urging Quebeckers to reject separatism. He also defended the sovereigntist option, saying that Quebec and Canada will maintain close relations.
- The PQ has begun positioning itself as a “government in waiting”, a characterization the party rejects as presumptuous. Many commentators are waiting to see if an effective Liberal or CAQ leader could give the separatists a run for their money.
- New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt is set to pursue government spending reductions, predicting “difficult but necessary” decisions. Holt remains one of the country’s most popular premiers.
- Neither of the candidates running to be P.E.I.’s PC leader and premier will commit to calling a spring election. An election could be as late as October 2027.
- Newfoundland and Labrador is joining most other provinces in opting out of the federal gun buyback program. This program has been criticized for being ineffective and expensive.
- Newfoundland Premier Tony Wakeham brought up hydroelectricity in a meeting with Premier Legault last week. The PC leader has criticized the current Churchill Falls deal with Quebec, but is waiting for an independent review to recommend whether to renegotiate the deal set up by his Liberal predecessor.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
The premiers gathered in Ottawa last week for the first, First Ministers’ meeting of 2026. The big headlines coming out of the meeting included the announcement of a draft national electricity strategy, 11 new MPO project approvals, and questions about Alberta and Quebec separatism. Media attention focused on potential fraying of Team Canada following Premier Kinew’s public appeal to Premier Ford to back down on his planned LCBO boycott of Crown Royal, saying it would affect workers at bottling facilities in both Manitoba and Quebec. Premier Kinew was also busy discussing the interest of a major energy company in the Port of Churchill, saying it would provide a solution to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and B.C. Premier David Eby’s impasse on a pipeline.
There has been no hiding the iciness between Premier Smith and Premier Eby. Premier Eby made news by calling a meeting between Alberta separatists and U.S. government officials “treason”. Premier Ford also urged Premier Smith to denounce the separatists in her province.
Despite some internal tension, Team Canada put on a brave face to show a united front amid ongoing trade tensions with our Southern neighbour. The premiers also agreed to meet with the prime minister on a monthly basis once CUSMA negotiations begin. That will be the real test of Team Canada’s resolve – staying united under the pressure of high-stakes trade negotiations.
Canada–India relations are moving from diplomatic repair to pragmatic re-engagement. Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson’s landmark attendance at India Energy Week 2026 — the first by a Canadian cabinet minister — coupled with the renewed Ministerial Energy Dialogue and a joint statement on energy security and supply diversity, marks clear acceleration. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s anticipated March visit targets deals on uranium, energy, critical minerals, AI, and beyond, as formal Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiations launch that month.
Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu has emphasized India’s vast scale, 7% annual growth, and projected 70% energy demand increase by 2040. This echoes Carney’s Davos realpolitik: prioritize interests while managing values and irritants in parallel.
At stake is turning stabilization into real market access in energy, critical minerals, and emerging tech, forging export and investment pathways. This signals long-term diversification potential with the world’s most populous country.
Watch for February CEPA terms of reference, agreements during Carney’s visit, reciprocal ministerial travel, and steady law enforcement dialogue progress.
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