Parliament returns, tariff tension, Premiers meet in Ottawa, and Conservatives head to Calgary to kick off 2026

Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies

January 26, 2026
8 minute read

The Latest

In the House

Key Green Chamber business set to play out.

Bill C-16, the Protecting Victims Act, is scheduled for its first day of debate at second reading today. It will be the first chance for members of Parliament to debate the bill in the House and a key moment for parties to stake out their positions on the legislation.
Bill C-15, the Budget Implementation Act, is currently at the finance committee, which is set to meet for the first time on bill today. The bill would enact a significant portion of the 2025 budget’s proposed legislative measures and will be a major priority for the government this winter.
Bill C-2, An Act respecting certain measures relating to the security of the border between Canada and the United States and respecting other related security measures is currently at second reading. The bill has been on hold since September 17, 2025, but remains part of the government’s longer term legislative agenda.
Bill C-9, the Combatting Hate Act (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places), is currently before the justice committee.
Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, is currently under consideration at the public safety committee.
Bill C-10, the Commissioner for Modern Treaty Implementation Act, is currently at second reading.
Bill C-11, Military Justice System Modernization Act, is currently before the Standing Committee on National Defence.
Bill C-14, the Bail and Sentencing Reform Act, is currently under consideration at the justice committee.

Committee Updates

SRSR will meet today to discuss artificial intelligence. Minister Evan Solomon is scheduled to appear next week as part of the study. (February 2nd).
HUMA will meet today on aspects of the government’s budget bill related to housing. Minister Gregor Robertson will appear, along with representatives from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and departmental officials.
INDU will meet today to discuss the subject matter of Bill C-15, Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 1. The Privacy Commissioner’s office will appear.
FINA will meet today to discuss the government’s budget bill, C-15, for the first time. Departmental officials are set to appear.
NDDN will meet today to discuss upcoming committee business, and hear from officials on NORAD modernization.
TRAN meets today to continue its study on the changing landscape for truck drivers in Canada.
ETHI meets today to discuss challenges posed by artificial intelligence and its regulation.
PACP will hear today from the Auditor General, as well as officials from Shared Services Canada, Communications Security Establishment and Treasury Board Secretariat on cyber security of government systems.
SECU will meet Tuesday on Bill C-8, the cyber security act, and will be joined by Minister of Industry Melanie Joly.

In the Senate

Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.

The Senate will resume sitting on Tuesday, February 3rd.
Bill C-4, An Act respecting certain affordability measures for Canadians and another measure has completed third reading in the House and is currently awaiting its first debate at second reading in the Senate.
Bill C-12, Strengthening Canada’s Immigration System and Borders Act has completed third reading in the House and hasn’t yet been debated in the Senate, remaining on the order paper for second reading.

Committee Updates

There are no committees scheduled at this time.

In Case You Missed It

Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.

Prime Minister Carney made a speech on January 20 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, stating that there is a “new world order” while reaffirming Canada’s position with it. The speech emphasized the need for Canada and the world to come together during a time of tumultuous relations with great powers. He communicated this through the story: “The Power of the Powerless” while making clear that middle powers must unite to protect their interests in the face of great powers, rather than create independent geopolitical fortresses.
Following his Davos speech, Carney delivered a second speech to Canadians ahead of his cabinet retreat on January 22, primarily focused on national unity. At the conclusion of the speech, he rebuked the claim made by President Donald Trump that “Canada lives because of the United States”, stating that “Canada thrives because we are Canadian”. The remarks generated criticism in Québéc, including from provincial Parti Québécois leader, for “falsifying history” when referencing the Plains of Abraham.
Last week, Conservative leader Pierre Pollievre responded to Carney’s Davos remarks, making the case that Canada must become more self-reliant, while working with like-minded countries to advance Canadian interests. He argued that the government’s work has not translated into results, pointing to worsening deficits, high inflation, housing costs, stalled resource projects, weak defence capacity, and growing dependence amid U.S. tariffs and Chinese security risks.
Canada and China have advanced a new strategic partnership in an effort to diversify and expand trade in Canada. The partnership will address five key areas including climate competitiveness, trade (particularly in agriculture), multilateralism, security and public safety and people-to-people change. The new deal will allow 49,000 Chinese vehicles at the most favoured tariff rate of 6.1% and China will remove trade barriers and reduce tariffs, with a reduction in Canadian canola tariffs to a combined rate of 15%, accompanied by relief for seafood and beef. The deal will also aim to increase Canadian exports to China by 50%.
President Donald Trump threatened Canada with a 100 per cent tariff if it moves ahead with the proposed strategic partnership with China in a Truth Social post on Saturday. He referred to the prime minister as “governor” in the post. Trump earlier claimed Canada has rejected participation in the Golden Dome over Greenland, despite its coverage of Canada.
President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace was launched internationally last week. President Trump “rescinded” Canada’s invitation to join the Board. Russia, China, Germany and India remain undecided, and the United Kingdom, France, Norway, Spain, Slovenia and Sweden have declined.

Provincial Updates

A look at the top news across the country.

BC
Prairies
Ontario
Québec
Atlantic

Premier of British Columbia David Eby said British Columbia is prepared to play a “key role” in the new global order described by Prime Minister Carney in his speech at Davos. On potential consequences to the Canada–U.S. relationship, he said they were likely, but “are minimal, compared to the larger-term consequences of giving up our sovereignty as a country.”
The British Columbia Conservative leadership race to replace John Rustad is currently dominated by individuals with former ties to the B.C. Liberal party. The candidates themselves disagree on the level of internal turmoil there is within the conservative party but may need to contend with tensions that challenged Rustad’s leadership.
Eby gave an address at the annual B.C. Natural Resources Forum, which gathered over 1,600 delegates, resource professionals and politicians to discuss the future of energy, mining and trade. Eby gave a clear indication that natural resources are a priority, and raised the fact that B.C. has more private sector projects lined up than any other province. Eby also defended the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act, stating that its repeal could hurt investment.

Alberta Premier Daniel Smith said she doesn’t believe Alberta separatists want to join the U.S. Her comments were in response to suggestions from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that Alberta could find a natural partner in Canada’s southern neighbour. Smith suggested Alberta separatists instead want a new relationship with Canada and cited her work on an MOU with Ottawa that prioritizes pipeline construction.
In Saskatchewan, $1.96 million will be invested towards nuclear energy innovation through PrairiesCan which will aim to make small modular reactors (SMRs) more deliverable. A new testing facility (Small Modular Reactor Safety, Licensing, and Testing centre) will be set up so that businesses can safely deploy nuclear technologies, and will connect academic partners with the first SMR test loops in Western Canada.
Premier of Saskatchewan Scott Moe accompanied the prime minister on his trip to Beijing where the Canadian delegation agreed to a new strategic partnership. Part of the agreement was for China to lower its tariffs on Canadian canola, which Moe said was a big win for the province and for all of Canada. Reduced tariffs are set to take effect March 1st.
Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew continued his campaign for federal support on port and rail investments to service Churchill, Manitoba. He said that Churchill would be “essential for [Canada] to maintain sovereignty” – particularly if the U.S. continues its campaign to take control of Greenland.

Premier Doug Ford made a number of statements highlighting his concerns with the new Canada-China partnership, criticizing the federal government’s lack of consultation with the province. Ford asserted that Canadians should be manufacturing vehicles domestically, asserted Chinese EVs posed a privacy and security risk, and he called for an end to the federal electric vehicle mandate. Ford alleged that the Ontario government had no advance notice from the federal government about the deal, despite their desire to support the auto sector.
Ontario ministers Peter Bethenfalvy, Nolan Quinn and Stephen Lecce announced Ontario’s bid to host a new Defence, Security and Resilience Bank (DSRB) in Toronto, backed by defence, tech, manufacturing and academic leaders. The aim is to secure federal support for Toronto’s bid. If selected, the bank could bring up to 3500 direct jobs.
The Ontario Liberal Party selected MPP John Fraser as its interim leader after former leader Bonnie Crombie stepped down. The details of the leadership race will be released on February 9.

Following Premier Legault’s resignation as leader of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), leadership candidates will have until February 21st to submit their interest in leading the party. Legault will remain leader of the party and Premier in the interim. Frontrunners to replace Legault include Simon Jolin-Barrette, Christine Fréchette, Bernard Drainville, François Bonnardel and Jean-François Simard. The leadership vote is scheduled for April 12th.
The prime minister’s address while attending a cabinet retreat in Québec City last week generated criticism in Québec, including from Parti Québecois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, for “falsifying history” when referencing the Plains of Abraham.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the frontrunning Parti Québecois, has promised an independence referendum if his party wins this year’s election. The PQ currently holds the lead in public opinion polling.
Last week, the Government of Quebec released its critical minerals strategy, with $88.1 million in funding, which is intended to build on their previous 2020-2025 plan, while accelerating projects, strengthening mineral processing and recycling and consolidating itself as a partner for economic allies.
Canada is being urged to bolster its defence spending in northern Québec following increased tension with the United States. Some have suggested that Canada should send troops into northern Québec and increase naval patrols through the Northwest Passage.

Premier Tony Wakeham discussed Newfoundland’s unique position for Arctic defence in Canada in St. John’s last week. Wakeham said that Newfoundland and Labrador is well poised to gain from strategic investment and defence spending, noting that any plans for Arctic and maritime sovereignty should take into account who is on Canada’s eastern frontier.
New Brunswick has announced its new minister of seniors, Chantal Boudreau, while the file remains under the department of social development. The department of social development focuses on many issues such as housing, homelessness, disabilities, seniors, social, family supports and child protections making departmental focus difficult.
Prince Edward Island is in the midst of the conservative leadership campaign between two candidates, Rob Lantz and Mark Ledwell. The convention to select leadership is slated for February 7. Herb Dickieson, who was running for leadership of the New Democratic Party has ended his bid.

What We're Watching

Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.

How Dare you Question my Confidence

Before the House of Commons rose for its annual break over the Christmas holidays, there were ten pieces of government legislation on the Order Paper. It adopted what is arguably the most indispensable of these bills, Bill C-15, the Budget Implementation Act (“BIA”), at 2nd reading and referred it to the Standing Committee on Finance. Given their minority government position, the Liberals must secure support from opposition members to keep the bill moving toward passage.

In tandem, the new parliamentary supply cycle means that the latest estimates must be approved by March 26th. Votes on matters of supply (such as estimates) are generally regarded as “confidence votes,” meaning the government must win them in order to avoid triggering an election. Seven “opposition days” must also be scheduled on or before March 26th, leaving just twenty one sitting days on the calendar for the government to pass these critical supply bills – and, many opportunities for the confidence of this Parliament to be tested.

By any definition, it is a very short window to get these items passed. With so many key government promises outlined in the budget implementation bill, there will be significant pressure to advance this, and other enabling supply matters through the House. To that end, expect most government MPs to stay close to Ottawa this winter to ensure a voting mishap doesn’t result in a snap election few are eager for.

Claire Smith

Senior Consultant

Tory Blues

Conservative Party of Canada members will gather in Calgary this weekend to vote on whether Pierre Poilievre should continue to lead the Party into the next federal election. This will mark the first time Conservatives gather for a convention since last year’s April 2025 federal election defeat, in which they saw a significant polling lead evaporate in the weeks before e-day.

It is expected that Poilievre will come away with a majority of delegates’ support to stay at the helm. But Conservatives will have much more to debate and discuss than the party’s leadership.

While the Conservatives remain competitive with the Liberals nationwide in public opinion polling, Poilievre’s favourables are waning, and accessible voters for the Conservatives in decline according to new polling Abacus Data. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mark Carney enjoys stable approval numbers, and remains the preferred Prime Minister for a large portion of voters.

With election speculation high in Ottawa, the Calgary convention may serve as a turning point for the Conservatives to regain momentum that stalled last spring. Poilievre will deliver a keynote speech to party supporters before the leadership review vote, which may offer signs of whether he intends to chart a new policy direction this parliamentary session, or stick to the same approach he’s taken since becoming party leader nearly three and a half years ago.

While Poilievre remains popular with most Conservatives, the question of whether or not he can appeal to a greater number of Canadians will have a real test this weekend.