Government Shuffles, Opposition Pounces
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 10 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- The federal government is defending having extended a $400M loan to Algoma Steel despite knowing of planned layoffs of 1,000 workers. Opposition Conservatives and New Democrats have criticized the loan as corporate welfare. Ontario’s Progressive Conservative government also extended a $100M loan to the steel company.
- The parliamentary budget officer claims that Build Canada Homes will only build 26,000 homes over five years, which does not match the ambition that the government has promised. Minister Gregor Robertson says that this figure does not take into account private sector and provincial investments, and modernization of homebuilding.
- Canada’s unemployment rate has dropped to 6.5%, down from 6.9% last month. The Canadian economy added 54,000 jobs in November. Many economists had anticipated a decrease instead. Most of the new jobs were part-time and oriented toward youth employment.
- A new Postmedia-Leger poll shows Mark Carney’s Liberals with 43% support, ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives who were at 36%. The poll indicates that roughly half of Canadians (49%) are satisfied with Mark Carney’s government.
- Minister Joly will serve Stellantis with a notice of default in an attempt to recover public funds. The auto giant announced mass layoffs in Brampton after receiving hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars. Joly claims that agreements signed with Stellantis included a jobs guarantee.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Bill S-233, An Act to amend the Criminal Code (assault against persons who provide health services and first responders) is at second reading.
- Bill S-211, National Framework on Sports Betting Advertising Act, is at second reading.
- Bill S-228, An Act to amend the Criminal Code (sterilization procedures), is at second reading.
- Bill C-4, Making Life More Affordable for Canadians Act, is at third reading.
- Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts, is at consideration in committee.
- Bill C-9, Combatting Hate Act, is at consideration in committee.
- Bill C-10, Commissioner for Modern Treaty Implementation Act, is at second reading.
- Bill C-11, Military Justice System Modernization Act, is at consideration in committee.
- Bill C-12, Strengthening Canada’s Immigration System and Borders Act, is at the report stage.
- Bill C-13, UK-Ireland-TPP, is at second reading.
- Bill C-14, Bail and Sentencing Act, is at consideration in committee.
- Bill C-15, Budget Implementation Act, is at second reading.
Committee Updates
- ENVI will be studying protecting Canadian residents from extreme weather events today.
- REGS will review statutory instruments today.
- FINA has committee business today.
- ETHI will review the Conflict of Interest Act today.
- AGRI will review Supplementary Estimates (B) and the importation of broiler meat mislabeled as spent fowl today.
- FEWO will study antifeminist ideology today.
- SDIR will hear about the human rights situation in Sudan today.
- CHPC will study the effects of social media on children and adolescents today.
- HUMA will study the definition of work and the use of section 107 of the Canada Labour Code tomorrow.
- HESA will review Supplementary Estimates (B) and antimicrobial resistance tomorrow.
- PROC has a briefing on Parliament Hill’s Long-term Vision and Plan (LTVP) and Centre Block rehabilitation tomorrow.
- LANG will examine official languages administrative monetary penalties regulations tomorrow.
- FAAE will study Canada’s Africa Strategy and the Situation in Haiti tomorrow.
- FOPO will continue their review of the Fisheries Act tomorrow.
- PACP has a briefing with the Canadian Audit and Accountability Foundation (CAAF) and Office of the Auditor General (OAG) tomorrow.
- ACVA will hear about barriers to entrepreneurship among veterans tomorrow.
- FEWO will study section 810 of the Criminal Code and Women’s safety on Wednesday.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill S-2, An Act to amend the Indian Act (new registration entitlements) is at third reading.
- Bill S-3, An Act to Amend the Weights and Measures Act, the Electricity and Gas Inspection Act, the Weights and Measures Regulations and the Electricity and Gas Inspection Regulations, is at consideration in committee.
- Bill S-202, An Act to amend the Food and Drugs Act (warning label on alcoholic beverages), is at third reading.
- Bill S-203, An Act to prohibit the promotion of alcoholic beverages, is at second reading.
- Bill S-204, An Act to establish a national framework on heart failure, is at second reading.
- Bill S-205, An Act to amend the Corrections and Conditional Release Act, is at consideration in committee.
- Bill S-206, An Act to Develop a National Framework for Guaranteed Liveable Basic Income, is at consideration in committee.
- Bill S-207, An Act to amend the Criminal Records Act, to make consequential amendments to other Acts and to repeal a regulation, is at second reading.
- Bill S-208, an Act to amend the Criminal Code (independence of the judiciary), is at second reading.
- Bill S-209, An Act to restrict young persons’ online access to pornographic material, is at committee.
- Bill S-212, An Act respecting a national strategy for children and youth in Canada, is at committee.
- Bill S-213, An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act (demographic information), is at second reading.
- Bill S-214, An Act to amend the Special Economic Measures Act (disposal of foreign state assets), is at second reading.
- Bill S-230, An Act respecting the development of a national strategy for soil health protection, conservation and enhancement, is at consideration at committee.
- Bill S-235, An Act respecting the National Strategy on Human Trafficking, is at second reading.
- Bill S-236, An Act to amend the Canadian Victims Bill of Rights and to establish a framework for implementing the rights of victims of crime, sits at second reading.
- Bill S-237, An Act respecting a Cities and Municipalities Day, is also undergoing second reading.
Committee Updates
- RIDR will examine and report on anti-semitism in Canada today.
- SECD will hear from witnesses regarding Bill C-15 (budget implementation) today.
- OLLO will examine federal institutions’s arts, culture and heritage language responsibilities today.
- APPA will study Bill C-15 (budget implementation) tomorrow.
- NFFN will examine Bill C-15 (budget implementation) tomorrow.
- TRCM will also be studying Bill C-15 (budget implementation) tomorrow and Wednesday.
- RPRD will hear from government representative Pierre Moreau about possible rules amendments tomorrow.
- BANC will examine Bill C-15 (budget implementation) tomorrow.
- AGFO will also be studying Bill C-15 (budget implementation) tomorrow and Thursday.
- ENEV will study Bill C-15 (budget implementation) on Thursday.
- POFO will review Bill C-15 (budget implementation) on Thursday.
- AEFA will consider future business on Thursday.
- LCJC will hear from Indigenous experts on Bill S-205 (solitary confinement) on Thursday.
- SOCI will consider Bill S-212 (strategy for children and youth) on Thursday.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Premiers Kinew and Holt are Canada’s most popular premiers, with approval ratings at 58% and 56% respectively. Ford and Legault are at the back of the pack at 34% and 25%. Premier Ford continues to dominate his political opponents in voter intention polling despite his low approval rating.
- Minister Anandasangaree announced that the government will be conducting a review of firearms classifications. The government has faced pushback from some Indigenous communities over the restrictions placed on the SKS semi-automatic rifle used for hunting.
- Prime Minister Carney met with President Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum at the FIFA World Cup draw last week. Uncertainty remains as to whether Trump will seek to abandon the USMCA agreement.
- Leaked Liberal talking points say that NDP MP Jenny Kwan’s bill limiting arms exports to the U.S. would be detrimental to the development of Canada’s defence sector. Minister Anita Anand insists that the government already has strong regulations regarding arms exports.
- MP Steven Guilbeault suggested that the MOU between Canada and Alberta will fuel Quebec separatism. Guilbeault’s recent resignation from cabinet was a major political development, especially in Quebec where he is a well-known figure. Polling indicates that new pipelines are supported by majorities in every province, but with more opposition in Quebec and BC.
- Last week several federal ministers addressed the Assembly of First Nations in Ottawa. Canada’s shift to enable a new pipeline to the West Coast has caused consternation among Indigenous rightsholders. Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne attended to speak with First Nations leaders, but Energy Minister Tim Hodgson was notably absent.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- The B.C. Conservatives have removed John Rustad as leader of the party, with MLA Trevor Halford now serving as interim leader. Rustad brought the party from a single seat to near-victory in the last election, but has faced mounting criticism from within the caucus in recent months. Critics alleged that party organization was poorly done under his leadership, and policies have been philosophically inconsistent.
- A statement from the B.C. Ministry of Health confirmed that its review of provincial health authorities has resulted in $60 million in savings from 1,100 positions that have been “eliminated, closed or left vacant”.
- Polling indicates that 53% of British Columbians support a new oil pipeline. Premier David Eby has been vocal about his opposition to such a project, but seems to be softening his tone in favour of negotiations to preserve the North West Coast tanker ban. It remains unclear if a private sector proponent will step up to build the pipeline.
- Recall petitions are circulating regarding 17 members of the Alberta legislature. All but one of those target UCP MLAs, with NDP MLA Amanda Chapman being the first member of the opposition impacted. Recall petitioners are required to represent a number of signatures equivalent to 60% of the voters in the last election. In Danielle Smith’s Medicine Hat riding, more than 12,000 signatures will be required for the petition to trigger a recall vote.
- Saskatchewan has introduced legislation to enable involuntary treatment of people with addictions. Police could force a person into treatment if a referral is made by a medical professional or judge. The opposition NDP is supporting the government on this issue.
- Manitoba will be selling off reserves of American alcohol that have been sitting in storage since the government pulled them from the shelves. All proceeds from these sales will go to charities that distribute holiday food and gifts in Manitoba.
- Doug Ford expects the Eglinton Crosstown LRT to open in 2026. The project has experienced significant delays since construction began in 2011. Premier Ford said in September that it is unacceptable that officials could not guarantee opening the line by end of year.
- The Ontario Treasury Board has received so many work from home requests that it cannot process them all. One in six Ontario government employees have submitted requests following the premier’s order that employees return to the office five days a week.
- Ontario Liberal and NDP MPPs are calling on the government to improve consumer protections. A recent Star investigation found that alternative lenders have been profiting from exploitative high-interest loans. Companies like LendCare offer loans to applicants who have been rejected by traditional lenders.
- A company belonging to Mayor Patrick Brown has acquired two properties worth almost $1.5 million in downtown Brampton. The properties are in an area slated for further development by Brampton City Council. They will also be adjacent to a new LRT stop that is under construction.
- Premier Legault called Minister Marc Miller a ‘disgrace to all Quebeckers’ after Miller said he is tired of the identity-driven debate on the decline of the French language. Miller claimed that he did not deny the decline of French and was instead pointing to the success of policies like Bill 101 in protecting the French language. Legault said that Miller, who is the new culture minister, will not be able to show up at Quebec cultural events after saying such a thing.
- The Quebec Liberal Party has expelled a member of the national assembly who is under investigation by the ethics commissioner. The Liberals have been troubled by ethics scandals related to campaign financing throughout former MP Pablo Rodrizuez’s leadership. If current public opinion trends continue, the Parti Quebecois would be well positioned to easily form a majority government.
- Parti Quebecois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has alleged that parts of the province’s cultural community lack loyalty to Quebec. He made this controversial statement in response to groups welcoming Montreal MP Marc Miller being appointed as Canada’s culture minister.
- The Government of Nova Scotia is pursuing a crackdown on illegal cannabis sales, and is asking Mi’kmaw chiefs for support. Chiefs said they were surprised to receive the letter, and some activists are describing the move as racist. Legal scholars have also criticized the initiative as a political direction of law enforcement.
- The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador has assembled a new working group to propose improvements to the justice system. Access to justice has effectively been on pause as the system has failed to keep up and has had to cut back on proceedings.
- A new report indicates that continuation of the Northumberland ferry service is essential for the survival of Eastern P.E.I. Without reliability improvements there will be significant damage to the area’s economy. A new vessel is expected to be ready for 2030.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Do the Shuffle
Last week, Steven Guilbeault stepped down from his ministerial role, following the announcement of the Memorandum of Understanding between Prime Minister Carney’s government and Premier Smith’s Alberta government. A few days later, a shuffle took place at Rideau Hall with former Trudeau-era Minister Marc Miller returning as minister of Canadian identity and culture and minister responsible for official languages. Minister of Government Transformation, Public Works and Procurement, Joel Lightbound assumed the politically important position of Quebec lieutenant. Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Julie Dabrusin, also inherited the nature file. Rumours have been swirling of a larger shuffle occurring once the House rises for the holidays. While Carney continues to differentiate his government from Trudeau-era environmental policies, watch for further incremental changes to his cabinet as he augments the front bench entrusted with implementing his agenda. With several Trudeau era ministers still sitting in the back benches of parliament, the precarity of governing in a minority parliament would require strategic timing for any by-elections that could clear the way for new recruits Carney may be considering. The cabinet and House of Commons may look different in the new year.
Alyssa Bishop
Research Manager
The Wedge Playbook
In the final sitting week of 2025, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are reverting to a familiar procedural approach: using House business to compel public positioning on issues that are internally sensitive for their opponents. On December 9, the Official Opposition will use its Opposition Day to debate a non-binding motion supporting the pipeline proposal in the Ottawa-Alberta MOU as written, framed to put MPs on the record. The motion has no legal effect, but it lands amid caucus discomfort as Liberal MPs in British Columbia advance pipeline “requirements” not reflected in the MOU. The Prime Minister retains several avenues of response, including stricter caucus discipline, amendments, and other procedural measures, as Liberals absorb the fallout of Steven Guilbeault’s resignation from cabinet. This is an early indication that procedural wedging is re-emerging from the Conservative toolkit, with greater disruptive potential if Liberal caucus unease expands beyond this file.
Bryce McRae
Senior Consultant
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