Energy Breakthroughs, Cabinet Turmoil, and West Coast Unrest
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 8 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith signed a memorandum of understanding regarding the Alberta energy sector and the potential development of a new pipeline to the West Coast. The deal includes the removal of the federal emissions cap, an exemption from the clean electricity regulations, and the possibility of lifting the tanker ban. In exchange, Alberta will increase its industrial carbon price and support a large-scale carbon capture project.
- Premier Smith defended the pipeline agreement at the United Conservative Party’s convention last weekend, while some of the party faithful expressed reluctance to support the premier’s bid to work with Ottawa. She asked attendees to consider “a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada” and to “not give up on our country.”
- In response to the memorandum of understanding between Canada and Alberta, long-time minister and environmentalist Steven Guilbeault resigned from cabinet. In his resignation letter, Guilbeault expressed his dissatisfaction with the government for rolling back several other measures including the consumer carbon tax and the framework to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies.
- Industry Minister Melanie Joly embarked on a five-day trip to South Korea and Japan last week, with the aim of attracting foreign investment to Canada. Her meeting with major corporations focused on defence, critical minerals, batteries, and shipbuilding.
- Prime Minister Carney announced new support for the steel and lumber sectors. Imported steel will be further limited, Buy Canadian policies for steel and lumber will be put in place, freight rates will be cut, and the industries will receive new protections. These sectors have been hard hit by tariffs, with lumber losses being a major political issue in Quebec and BC.
- Auto manufacturer Stellantis faced criticism after failing to appear before a parliamentary committee last week. Stellantis is the beneficiary of hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding and recently shifted production from Brampton to the United States. The Government of Canada has initiated proceedings to attempt to recover funds.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Bill S-233, An Act to amend the Criminal Code (assault against persons who provide health services and first responders) is at second reading.
- Bill S-211, National Framework on Sports Betting Advertising Act, currently sits at second reading in the House.
- Bill S-228, An Act to amend the Criminal Code (sterilization procedures) is at second reading.
- Bill C-4, Making Life More Affordable for Canadians Act, is at third reading.
- Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts, is at committee.
- Bill C-9, Combatting Hate Act, is at committee.
- Bill C-10, Commissioner for Modern Treaty Implementation Act, is at second reading.
- Bill C-11, Military Justice System Modernization Act, is at committee.
- Bill C-12, Strengthening Canada’s Immigration System and Borders Act, is at committee.
- Bill C-13, UK-Ireland-TPP, is at second reading.
- Bill C-14, Bail and Sentencing Act, is at second reading.
- Bill C-15, Budget Implementation Act, is at second reading.
Committee Updates
- ENVI will review the supplementary estimates (B) and the mandate of the minister of environment and climate change today.
- INDU will be discussing Canada’s underlying productivity gaps and capital outflow today.
- SRSR will hear from witnesses about AI today and Wednesday.
- ETHI will study challenges posed by artificial intelligence and its regulation today.
- CIIT will study the forthcoming CUSMA review today.
- FEWO will continue their study of anti-feminist ideology today.
- CHPC will study the effects of influencers and social media content on children and adolescents today and Wednesday.
- INAN will hear from witnesses on Indigenous policing and public safety committee business today.
- PROC will examine foreign election interference tomorrow.
- ACVA will go over Supplementary Estimates (B) tomorrow.
- PACP will work on their report on professional services contracts tomorrow.
- CIMM will examine Canada’s immigration system tomorrow.
- NDDN will study Bill C-11 (national defence) tomorrow.
- ACVA will convene to examine suicide prevention among veterans on Thursday.
- SECU will study Bill C-8 (cybersecurity) on Thursday.
- PROC will examine the mandate of the leaders’ debates commission on Thursday.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill S-2, An Act to amend the Indian Act (new registration entitlements) is at report stage.
- Bill S-3, An Act to Amend the Weights and Measures Act, the Electricity and Gas Inspection Act, the Weights and Measures Regulations and the Electricity and Gas Inspection Regulations, is at committee.
- Bill S-202, An Act to amend the Food and Drugs Act (warning label on alcoholic beverages), is at third reading.
- Bill S-203, An Act to prohibit the promotion of alcoholic beverages, is at second reading.
- Bill S-204, An Act to establish a national framework on heart failure, is at second reading.
- Bill S-205, An Act to amend the Corrections and Conditional Release Act, is at committee.
- Bill S-206, An Act to Develop a National Framework for Guaranteed Liveable Basic Income, is at committee.
- Bill S-207, An Act to amend the Criminal Records Act, to make consequential amendments to other Acts and to repeal a regulation, is at second reading.
- Bill S-208, an Act to amend the Criminal Code (independence of the judiciary), is at second reading.
- Bill S-209, An Act to restrict young persons’ online access to pornographic material, is at committee.
- Bill S-212, An Act respecting a national strategy for children and youth in Canada, is at committee.
- Bill S-213, An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act (demographic information), is at second reading.
- Bill S-214, An Act to amend the Special Economic Measures Act (disposal of foreign state assets), is at second reading.
- Bill S-235, An Act respecting the National Strategy on Human Trafficking, is at second reading.
- Bill S-236, An Act to amend the Canadian Victims Bill of Rights and to establish a framework for implementing the rights of victims of crime, sits at second reading.
- Bill S-237, An Act respecting a Cities and Municipalities Day, is also undergoing second reading.
Committee Updates
- RIDR will examine and report on anti-semitism in Canada today.
- SECD will examine and report on general security and defence issues today.
- OLLO will examine federal institutions’ arts, culture and heritage language responsibilities today.
- NFFN will study Bill C-15 (budget implementation) tomorrow and Wednesday.
- TRCM will examine divisions of Bill C-15 (budget implementation) tomorrow and Wednesday.
- SEBS will examine and report on Senate estimates and committee budgets tomorrow.
- ENEV will hear from witnesses on the Newfoundland and Labrador oil sector tomorrow and Thursday.
- LTVP will study the long-term vision and plan for the parliamentary precinct on Wednesday.
- AOVS will supervise and report on Senate audits on Wednesday.
- AEFA will examine foreign relations and international trade generally on Wednesday.
- LCJC will study divisions of Bill C-15 (budget implementation) on Wednesday and Thursday.
- SOCI will study divisions of Bill C-15 (budget implementation) on Wednesday and Thursday.
- AEFA will report on Canada’s interests and engagement in Africa on Thursday.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Canada has signed a high-value deal to supply India with uranium. Canada’s Cameco Corp will supply the uranium for a value of $2.8 billion over ten years. Canada-India relations have recently begun to thaw, as Prime Minister Mark Carney adopts a different approach from the former Trudeau government, who had cut off diplomatic relations with the South Asian nation.
- Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney participated in a virtual meeting of the Coalition of the Willing in support of Ukraine. The meeting was co-chaired by French President Emmanuel Macron, United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio were also in attendance. The coalition welcomed the progress made by the United States and Ukraine.
- Minister Hodgson defended a contract with an American nuclear technology firm. A Virginia-based company will hold an ownership stake in the management of Canadian Nuclear Laboratories. Hodgson defended the $1.2 billion per year contract by saying that ‘elbows up’ can mean a lot of different things.
- Conservative MPs have been criticizing the government’s agenda of creating and expanding marine protected areas. They argue that their coastal constituents fear the zones will limit their ability to earn a livelihood from fishing. The government’s objective is to protect 30% of Canada’s lands and waters by 2030.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- Coastal BC First Nations are opposed to any new pipeline to the Northwest Coast. Their concerns have been echoed by MPs in the Bloc Québécois, NDP, and Green Party. These First Nations say that a pipeline will never happen, and that to force it through would be a violation of their constitutional rights. The Prime Minister has stated that the province of BC and impacted First Nations will have to agree in order for the project to move forward.
- A class action lawsuit against the BC and federal governments argues that property owners on Cowichan territory were not properly informed of the security of their title. An earlier ruling affirming Cowichan title to land near the City of Richmond caused concern among residents, who are unsure about what it means for them..
- Angus Reid polling shows that 53% of British Columbians could support a new oil pipeline. Premier Eby has made opposing the pipeline a key political issue, a stance that resonates strongly with his NDP base.
- Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Carney signed a memorandum of understanding to strengthen energy collaboration between Alberta and the federal government. The agreement means an end to the oil and gas emissions caps and the immediate suspension of the federal net zero power regulations in Alberta.
- Premier Smith defended the pipeline agreement at the United Conservative Party’s convention last weekend, while some of the party faithful expressed reluctance to support the premier’s bid to work with Ottawa. She asked attendees to consider “a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada” and to “not give up on our country.”
- Alberta will be tabling a new bill written by artificial intelligence. The bill, to be tabled by the Services Alberta minister, will establish standards for Alberta Whisky.
- Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe says that he sees a path forward for Canada and China to resolve their ongoing trade dispute. Chinese tariffs have devastated the Canadian canola, pork and seafood sectors. Earlier this fall, China’s Ambassador to Canada said China will lift tariffs in exchange for Canada dropping its EV levies.
- The Ontario NDP has asked the integrity commissioner to investigate the labour minister. The Skills Development Fund has been a political hot potato in the legislature. Ontario Liberals and New Democrats have questioned why less qualified applicants with connections to the PCs received funds.
- Ontario will spend $26.8 billion refurbishing the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station. While the site is under construction, the province will increase reliance on natural gas. Renovating the plant was ruled out by the previous Ontario Liberal government for being too expensive. The maintenance is expected to be complete in roughly ten years.
- Doug Ford’s PC government is appointing an administrator to take control of the Ontario real estate regulator. This follows a scandal which cast doubt on the regulator’s ability to protect Ontarians from fraud.
- Municipalities have complained about the unwieldy size of the signs that Doug Ford has sent to replace school zone speed cameras. The signs are too big to be mounted on standard poles. Ford has dismissed the complaints as politically motivated by Toronto and Ottawa.
- Quebec’s Liberals are in turmoil as they deal with a scandal over campaign financing. Pundits suggest it could potentially undermine leader Pablo Rodriguez’s chances of winning the next election.
- Premier Lagault’s government tabled legislation banning public prayer, framing it as an effort to advance secularism in the province. Cultural issues like this have been sources of popularity for the premier in the past.
- The Government of Quebec appears open to accepting amendments to its controversial health care law. Family doctors have returned to the negotiating table for discussions with the CAQ government.
- Newly elected Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Tony Wakeham met with Prime Minister Mark Carney last week. He stated that the province is open for oil development and asked the PM to refer the Bay du Nord project to the Major Projects Office.
- Nova Scotia Power executives testified before a committee of the legislature last week. The utility corporation was hacked last spring, putting the data of thousands of customers at risk. Following the cyberattack, remote meter readings were disconnected for many customers. Nova Scotia Power hopes to have the issue resolved by March.
- The Government of Nova Scotia released a report on environmental racism against Mi’kmaw people and African Nova Scotians. The opposition is calling on the government to officially apologize, but Premier Houston has refused to do so.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Wrap it Up, Please
As politicos across the country prepare to trade in the Order Paper for wrapping paper, ‘tis the season to navel-gaze at the law-making of this 45th Parliament.
Excluding pro forma pieces of legislation, the Carney government has introduced 14 bills and four have received royal assent. The backdrop of U.S. trade tensions has coloured the legislative agenda, with border and immigration bills (C-2, C-12 and C-3) and trade bills (C-5 and C-13) at the front of the line.
The 2025 Budget, which christened the new fall budgeting cycle, is set to pass in the new year. Meanwhile at committees, AI was a hot topic — with dedicated studies at Canadian Heritage, Ethics, Science, and Status of Women, to name just a few. As we enter the final two sitting weeks of this year, though, it should be government business as usual. Barring any last-minute legislative surprises, the House will slide straight into the holidays.
Claire Smith
Consultant
Energy Shift
Last week’s memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith marked a dramatic shift in the often frosty relationship between the two jurisdictions. The MOU provides Alberta with the ability to receive streamlined approval to build a new bitumen pipeline to the West Coast, facilitated by the federal government under the Building Canada Act.
There are, however, still multiple question marks surrounding the announcement that could derail the project before it gets off the ground. First, there is the strong opposition from B.C. Premier David Eby and First Nation groups. This could make it a tough sell to investors who want assurances the process will not drag out. Carney also has to deal with strife in his own caucus. Canadian Identity Minister Steven Guilbeault, an avowed environmentalist, resigned from cabinet over the MOU and there are reports of uneasy B.C. Liberal MPs too.
If the prime minister is unable to manage the embittered parties, both externally and internally, his agenda of overseeing a government that builds rapidly might come to a complete halt.
Ethan Letkeman
Research Consultant
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