Another Budget Vote of Confidence. Plus, More Major Projects Unveiled
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 8 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- Canada’s premiers are meeting virtually with the prime minister today. Their agenda focuses on the trade war with the US and the need for nation-building infrastructure investments.
- The NDP says it has taken steps to prepare for a possible winter election. The government needs a sufficient number of opposition members to abstain or vote in favour of the budget motion, or it will be defeated, likely leading to an election. It remains unclear how each NDP MP will be voting, but the Globe and Mail reported yesterday that party sources expect interim Leader Don Davies and Vancouver Island MP Gord Johns to abstain, with up to five of the NDP’s seven MPs expected to vote against.
- Last Thursday, Prime Minister Carney unveiled the second tranche of nation-building projects that will be referred to the Major Projects Office (MPO). While projects like Ksi Lisims LNG have been met with criticism by environmental groups and First Nations, they have also been praised by industry associations.
- Following the departure of MP Chris d’Entremont from the CPC caucus, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre indicated that the floor crossing is not a cause for reflection on his leadership style. This comes after d’Entremont likened the Conservative caucus to a frat house and connected his decision to leave with the temperament of the Tory leader.
- Prime Minister Carney’s first budget scales back the extent to which departments must find savings. Deep cuts to operating expenditures were anticipated in his budget, but cuts to departments such as Women and Gender Equality Canada were scaled back in response to public and stakeholder advocacy.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- The House of Commons will hold the fourth and final day of debate on the budget ways and means motion today. After today’s debate, MPs will take part in a confidence vote to approve in principle the budgetary policy of the government.
- After debate on the budget ways and means motion concludes today, the government will be able to return to its usual legislative business in the House. That includes major government bills like Bill C-4 (affordability measures), which is sitting at report stage, and Bill C-14 (bail and sentencing), which is currently awaiting a fourth day of debate at second reading.
- The first budget implementation bill is on the notice paper and could be introduced as early as today. The first budget bill generally includes a wide set of higher-priority legislative items from the budget, including tax and legislative measures. It will help to flesh out the finer details of policy objectives laid out in more general terms in the budget.
Committee Updates
- ENVI will be meeting this morning to hear from Dawn Farrell, Chief Executive Officer of the Major Projects Office. Representatives from the Port of Montreal will also attend.
- INAN will meet today for a briefing on Budget 2025 by Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations Rebecca Alty, Minister of Northern and Arctic Affairs Rebecca Chartrand, and Minister of Indigenous Services Mandy Gull-Masty as well as departmental officials.
- AGRI will study the government’s regulatory reform initiative in the agriculture and agri-food sector today.
- FEWO will hear from expert witnesses on section 810 of the Criminal Code and women’s safety today.
- CIIT is scheduled for another meeting on its study entitled Canada and the Forthcoming CUSMA Review. The committee will hear from departmental officials.
- CHPC will convene today to study the effects of technological advances in AI on the creative industries.
- RNNR will hear from industry leaders about the state of the forestry sector this afternoon.
- CIMM will meet tomorrow to consult witnesses on the subject matter of Bill C-12.
- INDU will meet on Wednesday to continue its study on the Defence Industrial Strategy.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- The Senate resumes sitting tomorrow. The government’s Bill C-3 has passed second reading and is currently undergoing Senate committee consideration.
- Bill S-2, An Act to amend the Indian Act (new registration entitlements) is at consideration in committee.
- Bill S-3, An Act to Amend the Weights and Measures Act, the Electricity and Gas Inspection Act, the the Weights and Measures Regulations and the Electricity and Gas Inspection Regulations, is at the second reading.
- Bill S-201, An Act respecting a national framework on sickle cell disease, is at third reading.
- Bill S-202, An Act to amend the Food and Drugs Act (warning label on alcoholic beverages), is at consideration in committee.
- Bill S-203, An Act to prohibit the promotion of alcoholic beverages, is at second reading.
- Bill S-204, An Act to establish a national framework on heart failure, is at second reading.
- Bill S-205, An Act to amend the Corrections and Conditional Release Act, is at consideration in committee.
- Bill S-206, An Act to Develop a National Framework for Guaranteed Liveable Basic Income, is at committee.
- Bill S-207, An Act to amend the Criminal Records Act, to make consequential amendments to other Acts and to repeal a regulation, is at second reading.
- Bill S-208, an Act to amend the Criminal Code (independence of the judiciary), is at second reading.
- Bill S-209, An Act to restrict young persons’ online access to pornographic material, is at committee.
- Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising, is awaiting first reading.
- Bill S-212, An Act respecting a national strategy for children and youth in Canada, is at committee.
- Bill S-213, An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act (demographic information), is at second reading.
- Bill S-214, An Act to amend the Special Economic Measures Act (disposal of foreign state assets), is at second reading.
- Bill S-235, An Act respecting the National Strategy on Human Trafficking, is at second reading.
- Bill S-236, An Act to amend the Canadian Victims Bill of Rights and to establish a framework for implementing the rights of victims of crime, sits at second reading.
- Bill S-237, An Act respecting a Cities and Municipalities Day, is also undergoing second reading.
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- The Government of Canada increased spending on external services by $2B this year. Prime Minister Carney has promised to reduce spending on external consultants. This spending was mainly directed toward engineering and architectural firms.
- The prime minister submitted a new tranche of projects to the Major Projects Office last week. These initiatives include liquid natural gas development, mining, and hydroelectricity. If these developments are found to be in the national interest they will be allowed to bypass many regulatory hurdles.
- Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand announced new sanctions on Russian drones at the G7 foreign ministers meeting in Southern Ontario. Russian drone attacks have devastated Ukraine’s electricity grid, causing mass blackouts.
- CSIS Director Dan Rogers warned that Russian and Chinese spies have a strong interest in Canada’s arctic. Arctic security has become a top priority for Mark Carney’s Liberal government, with the federal budget earmarking large investments in northern defence.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- The CFIA has culled and buried BC ostriches following an outbreak of avian flu. The legitimacy of the cull was questioned to the extent the case went to the Supreme Court, attracting significant media attention.
- Premier David Eby announced the construction of two new schools in Langley. These schools will create 2,800 new spaces for middle school and high school students. Metro Vancouver has had a rapidly growing population which has placed strain on the education system.
- David Eby has won the support of 82% of BC New Democrats in his leadership reviews and will stay on as party leader and premier.
- Premier Danielle Smith remains optimistic that a bitumen pipeline to tidewater will be in a subsequent round of major projects to be fast-tracked by the federal government. The second round of projects had LNG, hydro and mining, but no oil. B.C. Premier David Eby is irritated that this potential pipeline is still being discussed given that he considers it non-viable.
- Premier Wab Kinew has introduced legislation to enable the detention of intoxicated people. Involuntary addictions treatment has been a controversial subject among progressives seeking to balance human rights with an effective response to the addictions crisis.
- Alberta’s labour movement is considering a general strike in response to the province’s suspension of bargaining. A general strike would likely not meet the threshold of a legal strike, and would be an unprecedented action in the last 100 years of Canadian labour relations.
- Doug Ford spoke at the groundbreaking of a new battery storage plant about developing Ontario’s industries to resist American tariffs. This new facility will have the capacity to power 400, 000 homes, and will be completed in 2027.
- Experts say that despite the rise in unemployment, the Ontario economy is faring better than expected in the face of American tariffs. 700, 000 Ontarians are unemployed and the jobless rate for 2025 is 7.8%.
- Ontario has signed an agreement with the federal government for the extension of the national childcare program. This new deal allows the province to delay reaching the federal target of $10/day.
- The Ontario government announced that it was earmarking $210 million for municipalities to implement traffic-calming measures as its ban on speed cameras took effect last Thursday.
- Québec’s changes to doctor billing was presented as a solution to the shortage of family doctors. However, it has caused broad resistance from doctors and their supporters in yet another blow to Francois Legault’s unpopular CAQ government
- Gas prices in Québec are now markedly higher than in the rest of Canada. The cancellation of the carbon tax caused a drop in prices in other provinces that was not seen in Québec, where the carbon tax never applied. An average Montreal resident now pays $260 more for gas per year than cities outside of Québec.
- Transit strikes in Montreal have caused inconvenience on a mass scale. The last shutdown on November 1 happened at the same time as many popular sports events, causing transportation delays and skyrocketing Uber prices.
- Recent floor-crosser MP Chris d’Entremont was reportedly booed at a Remembrance Day ceremony in his riding of Acadie-Annapolis. His switch to the Liberals was a divisive move that enraged many Conservatives. D’Entremont won narrowly over a Liberal challenger in April’s federal election.
- A Newfoundland and Labrador Supreme Court Justice has ordered a recount in the provincial riding of Topsail-Paradise. Progressive Conservative incumbent Paul Dinn won the seat by just 104 votes in the recent election that brought Tony Wakeham’s Tories to a majority government.
- Prince Edward Island Premier Rob Lantz is advocating for the federal government to support the replacement of the island’s undersea power cable. The premier considers this to be a nation-building project that is particularly important for connecting to the proposed Wind West renewable energy project.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Shovels, Stockpile and Strategy
Prime Minister Mark Carney has unveiled the next wave of fast-tracked “nation-building” projects to be tasked to the Major Projects Office (MPO). The ventures span key sectors, including Ksi Lisims LNG, new nickel, graphite, and tungsten mines, the Iqaluit Nukkiksautiit hydroelectric project, and the Northwest Critical Conservation Corridor in B.C. The government is betting that the MPO, paired with new critical-minerals tools such as price floors, stockpiles and allied offtake deals, will turn its “Canada Strong” strategy into shovels in the ground. The MPO signals a major federal effort to accelerate timelines for strategically aligned projects, but permitting, Indigenous partnership, and provincial buy-in remain critical hurdles. For the private sector, success hinges on swift alignment with the MPO’s fast-track criteria and the demands of the emerging critical-minerals regime, making proactive engagement on these issues a necessity.
Bryce McRae
Senior Consultant
From Commitment to Capability
Budget 2025 signals a major push to modernize Canada’s defence and security apparatus, leveraging a “Buy Canadian” focus to strengthen NATO cooperation. The budget commits a historic $81.8 billion over five years to meet NATO’s 2% of GDP target this year and advance toward 5% of GDP by 2035. While the funding is certain, the budget is light on specific procurement projects. This means that all eyes will be on the Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS), which is expected in the coming weeks, and the new Defence Investment Agency (DIA) as critical signals for the sector. The DIS will define which domestic capabilities are prioritized, while the DIA will streamline and accelerate procurement (cutting red tape). Now is the time for industry to engage to align with the emerging, prioritized needs of the DIS and the DIA’s faster, consolidated process.
Ian Skipworth
Consultant
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