Budget Week in Ottawa, Fiscal Update in Ontario and Federal Election Speculation
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 7 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne will table the federal budget on Tuesday at 4:00pm. Much has changed since the last fiscal check-up in late 2024. Watch for a breakdown of Summa’s main takeaways on Tuesday evening.
- The Ontario government is also preparing to deliver its Fall Economic Update. It’s expected that support for the province’s tariff-impacted sectors will take centre stage.
- Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney met with President Xi Jinping, marking the first formal leaders meeting between Canada and China since 2017. The meeting marked a turning point for the bilateral relationship, reaffirming and building upon Carney’s meeting with Chinese Premier Li at the United Nations General Assembly, and other recent diplomatic efforts.
- The prime minister said Saturday that he apologized to U.S. President Donald Trump about the anti-tariff advertising campaign launched across U.S. networks by the Ontario government. Trump cut off trade talks with Canada after taking issue with the ad. Carney made the apology at Wednesday at a dinner hosted by the South Korean president as part of APEC. The prime minister also said he told Ontario Premier Doug Ford not to run the ad.
- NDP Interim Leader Don Davies said Sunday that New Democrats hadn’t ruled out the possibility of abstaining from the confidence vote on the budget. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre also provided an indirect answer when asked if his party had ruled out abstaining.
- Canada’s commander of the Royal Canadian Navy has stated that he is not looking to have a new submarine fleet built in Canada, citing capacity challenges. This comes amidst Canada’s plan to procure 12 new submarines to bolster military presence in the Arctic.
- Carney met with the prime ministers of Australia, Chile, China, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and Thailand on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Gyeongju, Republic of Korea. The talks revolved around strengthening CPTPP, regional security, and rules-based trade.
- Carney and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced the Canada–Korea Security and Defence Cooperation Partnership, the first of its kind for Canada in the Indo-Pacific, to enhance defence collaboration, interoperability, and industrial cooperation. They finalized negotiations on a classified information protection agreement, establishing a legal framework for deeper cooperation in defence procurement.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- The House of Commons will debate Bill C-14, the Bail and Sentencing Reform Act, for the first time at second reading today. Later on, members will consider Bill C-4, the Making Life More Affordable for Canadians Act, at report stage.
- Wednesday has been designated as the first appointed day for debate on the budget.
- Bill C-3, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act (2025) is at report stage.
- Bill C-4, An Act respecting certain affordability measures for Canadians and another measure, is at report stage..
- Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts, is currently at consideration in committee.
- Bill C-9, Combatting Hate Act (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places), is currently at consideration in committee.
- Bill C-10, An Act respecting the Commissioner for Modern Treaty Implementation is at second reading.
- Bill C-11, An Act to amend the National Defence Act and other Acts is currently at consideration in committee.
- Bill C-12, An Act respecting certain measures relating to the security of Canada’s borders and the integrity of the Canadian immigration system and respecting other related security measures is currently at consideration in committee..
- Bill C-13, An Act to implement the Protocol on the Accession of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership is at second reading.
- Bill C-14, An Act to amend the Criminal Code, the Youth Criminal Justice Act and the National Defence Act (bail and sentencing) is at second reading.
Committee Updates
- ENVI will be meeting today to continue studying the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard.
- CIIT is meeting today to discuss Canada and the Forthcoming CUSMA Review.
- CHPC is meeting today to continue its study on Effects of Technological Advances in Artificial Intelligence on the Creative Industries.
- INDU is meeting today, where Industry Minister Melanie Joly will appear to discuss Stellantis’ recent decision to halt production in Windsor.
- INAN will hear from Minister of Public Safety Gary Anandasangaree as part of the committee’s study on Indigenous Policing and Public Safety on Wednesday, November 5.
- OGGO will meet to discuss Canada Post on Tuesday, November 4.
- SRSR is meeting today to continue studying Private Sector Investment in Research and Development in Canada.
- TRAN will hear from Wayne Long, Secretary of State (Canada Revenue Agency and Financial Institutions) as part of the committee’s ongoing study on the Changing Landscape of Truck Drivers in Canada on Thursday, November 6.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill S-2, An Act to amend the Indian Act (new registration entitlements) is currently at consideration in committee.
- Bill S-201, An Act respecting a national framework on sickle cell disease is at third reading.
- Bill S-202, An Act to amend the Food and Drugs Act (warning label on alcoholic beverages), is currently at consideration in committee.
- Bill S-203, An Act to prohibit the promotion of alcoholic beverages is at second reading.
- Bill S-209, An Act to restrict young persons’ online access to pornographic material is currently at consideration in committee, with clause-by-clause scheduled for Wednesday.
- Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising is awaiting first reading.
- Bill S-235, An Act respecting the National Strategy on Human Trafficking is at second reading.
- Bill S-236, An Act to amend the Canadian Victims Bill of Rights and to establish a framework for implementing the rights of victims of crime is at second reading.
- Bill S-237, An Act respecting a Cities and Municipalities Day is at second reading.
Committee Updates
- APPA will be hearing from witnesses on S-2 (An Act to amend the Indian Act (new registration entitlements) tomorrow.
- AGFO will meet tomorrow to study the growing issue of wildfires in Canada and the consequential effects that wildfires have on forestry and agriculture industries.
- SECD will meet today to examine and report on the impacts of Russia’s disinformation on Canada.
- TRCM will meet this week to study the maintenance of transport services in the case of labour disruptions.
- LCJC will undertake clause by clause consideration of Bill S-209 on Wednesday
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- On the weekend, Canada and the Philippines signed a Status of Visiting Forces Agreement to strengthen military cooperation, enabling joint exercises, information-sharing, and disaster-response. This collaboration comes amid rising tensions in the South China Sea, resulting from Chinese aggression.
- Chinese Ambassador to Canada Wang Di said Friday that the two countries could triple trade if the market allows. Those comments came after Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea.
- Under Canada’s G7 Presidency, Energy and Environment Ministers met in Toronto to advance cooperation on critical minerals, artificial intelligence, and energy security, including new investments, research partnerships, and commitments on nuclear and fusion energy. It was also announced that Canada is expediting the final portion of its $70-million contribution to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund.
- Canada and Australia have entered a joint declaration of intent on critical minerals, recognizing the shared economic prosperity of the two countries resulting from exploitation of these minerals.
- Canada’s Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Jennie Carignan has signed a new directive to increase the number of part-time soldiers from 28,000 to 400,000 as part of a new Defence Mobilization Plan.
- Christian Roy and Kelly Hutchinson will be leading the new Smart Procurement Group to help provide the federal government and its suppliers with solutions to existing procurement woes.
- Unions in Canada are warning about the prospect of stealth cuts as part of the upcoming budget, with significant impacts expected to hit the public service.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- Premier David Eby said he would call an early election if the government’s northern power line bill fails. Bill 31 would give the government direct decision-making power over the North Coast Transmission Line project to send power north. Critics say the bill could undermine the role of the B.C. Utilities Commission.
- BC OB-GYNs and specialists are calling out the staffing shortages in BC hospitals that are leading to poor working conditions and causing poorer patient outcomes in maternity care. There is fear that the care will continue to deteriorate if not addressed.
- Alberta’s government continues to stand by its invocation of the notwithstanding clause in Bill 2, the Back to School Act, which forced striking teachers back to work last week, and impose a collective agreement. This was the first time the clause has been used in Alberta’s history to pass legislation. The significant pushback from the labour community includes a simmering threat of calling a general strike in the province.
- Alberta’s public safety minister Mike Ellis introduced a new bill – Bill 4 – that aims to streamline police services, the domestic violence act, and inmate transfers with most changes targeting the Alberta Sheriffs Police Service which launched earlier this year. The goal is to bolster those doing police-like functions such as peace officers.
- Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe requested help from the federal government after India imposed a 30% tariff on yellow pea imports. India and China make up 71% of the market for pea exports, leaving few other options.
- The Manitoba government has stated that it has accepted all recommendations from an independent review launched in 2024 sparked by the NDP-introduced amendments to Bill 37 that would allow municipalities to opt out of Plan 20-50. The report gave 19 recommendations.
- The province’s Fall Economic Update will be delivered by Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy on Thursday.
- Following Ontario’s anti-tariff advertising campaign that evoked late President Roland Reagan, it was revealed that US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra went on a tirade against Ontario’s trade representative David Paterson. The advertisement has been pulled down, but the Ontario Premier is digging in on its effectiveness – and on the assertion that Prime Minister Carney knew about the advertisement well before it aired.
- The Ontario government is planning to amalgamate 36 conservation authorities into seven to better align with natural watershed rules. The amalgamation will be overseen by a new, soon to be announced provincial agency.
- Last week, Ontario launched a study on the viability of an East-West pipeline energy corridor. They study is expected to be completed by next year. Critics are arguing that the pipeline conversations threaten to derail Canada’s efforts to create a climate-competative economy.
- Québec municipal elections were held across the province on Sunday. Notably, former federal Liberal cabinet minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada was elected the mayor of Montreal, replacing Valerie Plante who did not seek a third term.
- Social services minister Lionel Carmant resigned last week increasing pressure on Premier Legault who has been under fire over the province’s controversial bill linking 10% of physicians’ pay to performance benchmarks. Doctors have stood against the bill, though it includes measures to prohibit boycotts. Ontario and N.B. are courting Québec doctors amidst the contentions.
- Québec has passed Bill 43, a bill that expands upon the 2019 Bill 21, extending the ban on religious symbols and face coverings to all school staff, volunteers, and anyone interacting with students. The ban is promised to be extended to daycare workers.
- Newfoundland and Labrador’s new premier Tony Wakeham stated that their government will be reviewing their agreement with Hydro-Québec, which would pay approximately $38B for the electricity produced at the Churchill Falls generating station in Labrador. Details about the review will be released over the coming weeks.
- Premier Wakeham constituted his cabinet last week, rewarding longtime provincial PC reps with cabinet roles.
- Nova Scotia premier Tim Houston is set to travel to Calgary, Alberta, and Houston, Texas, in his capacity as the province’s energy minister to discuss new energy opportunities.
- The New Brunswick government announced that they will lift the carbon adjuster effective December 1. This was a campaign promise made by Premier Susan Holt in 2024, and is projected to save New Brunswick families $150 to $200 a year.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Drip, Drip, [Budget] Drop
On October 22nd, as the capstone of his pre-budget communications, PM Carney delivered a live address forecasting Budget 2025’s economy-fortifying measures. Many engaged listeners lamented the speech lacked substance, considering the promotion it received beforehand. Since then, quite a few teasers of what is to come have been revealed in a pre-budget drip of announcements. Here’s a quick roundup of what we are expecting.
What’s Coming in Budget 2025: A new climate competitiveness strategy, immigration plan, and talent strategy for scientists and innovators is expected, as are new investments in apprenticeships and skills training. A new national anti-fraud strategy, the extension of the national food program, and 660.5M in funding over the next 5 years for Women and Gender Equality Canada will accompany novel investments in defence and security as Canada marches toward 2% GDP spending on NATO.
What we’re watching: The rumoured elimination of the oil and gas emissions cap and industrial carbon pricing system, details on the “Buy Canadian” procurement policy, “generational investments” in key sectors, and outputs from the 60-day red tape review that may reveal the efficiencies Carney is counting on to reduce the operating budget.
Claire Smith
Consultant
Budget Standoff Leads to Election Speculation
Nothing can be taken for granted in a minority parliament – including the passage of the federal budget, which could result in Canadians heading back to the polls if the Liberals cannot secure parliament’s support of the spending plan. Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon stated last week that the Liberals “don’t have the votes”, with the Prime Minister stating he is ready to fight an election on his fiscal plan. The Conservatives and Bloc Québécois have issued strenuous budget demands the Liberals are unlikely to meet, while the NDP has yet to state its conditions.
Still, none of the opposition parties are well-positioned in the polls to risk another campaign, according to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto. There’s been little change in public opinion, and Canadians may either get a similar result to April’s election, or the Liberals could secure a majority (they are currently just three seats shy). Failure to pass the budget could also backfire for the Liberals if voters believe they deliberately botch negotiations or mishandle the rollout.
All parties will have to navigate the budget standoff strategically and attempt to extract political value from it, should the unthinkable happen and Canadians find themselves in a second election within seven months.
Ethan Letkeman
Research Consultant
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