Trump cuts off trade negotiations with Canada as Carney shifts focus to Asia
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 7 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- Last week, President Donald Trump abruptly called off trade talks with Canada because of an Ontario-led anti-tariff advertising campaign. He also slapped an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods, and said he won’t be meeting with the Prime Minister for “a long time”.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum later this week in South Korea.
- With the tabling of the budget approaching on November 4th, it is still unclear if an opposition party will abstain or vote in favour of the budget. Failure to pass the budget would result in a federal election. The government house leader re-iterated his concern that the government does not currently have the votes for the budget to pass.
- Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is facing criticism from within his own party for comments claiming that the RCMP covered up scandals involving former prime minister Justin Trudeau that could have led to criminal charges. He later clarified that he did not mean Trudeau should be jailed, but that the RCMP should have conducted more thorough investigations into political controversies such as the Aga Khan island trip and the SNC-Lavalin affair.
- An Auditor General report has alleged that the Canadian Armed Forces is failing on recruitment and housing. Earlier this year, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced increases to soldiers’ salaries as a measure to improve the CAF.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Bill C-3, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act (2025) is at report stage.
- Bill C-4, An Act respecting certain affordability measures for Canadians and another measure, is at consideration in committee.
- Bill C-8, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts, is currently in committee.
- Bill C-9, Combatting Hate Act (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places), is at consideration in committee.
- Bill C-10, An Act respecting the Commissioner for Modern Treaty Implementation is at second reading.
- Bill C-12, An Act respecting certain measures relating to the security of Canada’s borders and the integrity of the Canadian immigration system and respecting other related security measures has been referred to the Standing Committee on Public Safety and National Security.
- Bill C-14, An Act to amend the Criminal Code, the Youth Criminal Justice Act and the National Defence Act (bail and sentencing) sits at second reading.
- Bill C-13, An Act to implement the Protocol on the Accession of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership is at first reading in the House.
- Bill C-223, An Act to amend the Divorce Act is at second reading.
Committee Updates
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill S-2, An Act to amend the Indian Act (new registration entitlements) is at consideration in committee.
- Bill S-201, An Act respecting a national framework on sickle cell disease is at third reading.
- Bill S-202, An Act to amend the Food and Drugs Act (warning label on alcoholic beverages), is at consideration in committee.
- Bill S-203, An Act to prohibit the promotion of alcoholic beverages is at second reading.
- Bill S-209, An Act to restrict young persons’ online access to pornographic material is at committee.
- Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising is awaiting first reading.
- Bill S-235, An Act respecting the National Strategy on Human Trafficking is at second reading.
- Bill S-236, An Act to amend the Canadian Victims Bill of Rights and to establish a framework for implementing the rights of victims of crime sits at second reading.
- Bill S-237, An Act respecting a Cities and Municipalities Day is also undergoing second reading.
Committee Updates
- APPA will be hearing from witnesses on S-2 (An Act to amend the Indian Act (new registration entitlements) tomorrow.
- AGFO will meet tomorrow to study the growing issue of wildfires in Canada and the consequential effects that wildfires have on forestry and agriculture industries.
- SOCI will be consulting experts on Wednesday on Bill S-202, An Act to amend the Food and Drugs Act (warning label on alcoholic beverages).
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney spent the weekend in Malaysia and Singapore at the ASEAN summit and the APEC conference. Expanding trade with Asia is key to his goal to double Canada’s non-US exports. There have been suggestions that he may soon meet with China’s Xi Jinping to discuss improving Canada’s trading relationship with the emerging superpower.
- The prime minister also delivered a primetime address to the nation on Wednesday evening, outlining his plan for the federal budget.
- Prime Minister Carney says building up port infrastructure and exporting more resources, such as critical minerals from Ontario’s Ring of Fire, are key to his plan to boost Canada’s non-U.S. exports.
- Last week, the government tabled its crime bill to restrict access to bail, combat auto theft, and impose tougher criminal sentences.
- The EU commissioner stated that it won’t ‘lecture‘ Canada as it pushes ahead with tech and AI regulation.
- U.S. President Donald Trump announced Friday morning that he has terminated trade talks with Canada in response to an Ontario anti-tariff TV ad. He also slapped an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods. Prime Minister Carney said he stands ready to resume the discussions.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- This week, the B.C. Conservatives management committee called on Leader John Rustad to resign, citing unprecedented levels of turmoil within the party. Rustad is dealing with an increasingly fractured caucus and criticism from both the left and right flanks of his party.
- OneBC’s attempt to ban land acknowledgements has failed, with both the NDP and Conservatives voting against. OneBC is a right-wing party with two members, formed after MLA Dallas Brodie was removed from the Conservative caucus for residential school denialism.
- As the fall sitting begins in Saskatchewan, Premier Moe’s throne speech included promises for drug-addiction support and a crackdown on crime. Moe will be pursuing a controversial policy of placing individuals in substance abuse treatment against their will. The opposition NDP has criticized the government’s approach to affordability and healthcare.
- The Alberta government will be tabling back-to-work legislation today, following strikes from teachers across the province. Striking teachers are angry at what they say is an attack on labour rights that courts have interpreted as protected by the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
- Premier Ford said the province will pause its anti-tariff ads today, following a request from the prime minister. He continued them throughout the World Series games this weekend to get them in front of a large American audience.
- The federal and Ontario governments announced that they will be putting $3 billion towards new nuclear reactors in Bowmanville. Sources stated that the Ford government doesn’t want to link the reactors to Prime Minister Carney’s ‘national interest’ projects.
- Doug Ford expressed frustration about extremely high resale prices for Blue Jays tickets. He is considering a legislative remedy to this problem. Opposition politicians have criticized that Ontario used to have legislation capping resale prices before Premier Ford himself rescinded that law.
- Quebec is set to equip highway traffic controllers with firearms. Road inspectors have been asking for these capabilities for years, citing aggression when confronting drivers.
- Quebec is set to ban religious symbols in daycare centres. Secularism measures have been key to the premier’s popularity in the past. Now that the premier is facing heated criticism and widespread disapproval, he may wish to shift the debate to the issues on which he is the strongest.
- Montreal will elect a new mayor and council on November 2nd. Those vying for the position include former federal minister Soraya Martinez-Ferrada and former NDP candidate Craig Sauve.
- Nova Scotia’s would-be whale sanctuary is one step closer to reality. This sanctuary has been delayed due to objections from adjacent landowners. Tim Houston’s PCs have changed course and decided to move forward despite these objections. This sanctuary is seen by many as a solution for the belugas being held in captivity at the shuttered Marineland site in Ontario
- N.S. Premier Tim Houston had a cabinet shuffle last week. Notably, he appointed himself minister of energy immediately before signing an agreement with Ontario about the development of small modular reactors.
- The government of New Brunswick has signed a collective agreement with the nurses’ union to increase wages. The year-old Liberal government enjoys both a high approval rating and better relations with unions than the preceding conservative government.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Fortune Favours the Bold
Canada’s automotive sector has taken a series of hits in recent weeks. Stellanis is shifting Jeep production to Illinois and GM is scaling back operations in southern Ontario, putting thousands of jobs and billions in investment at risk. In response, Ottawa has launched new enforcement measures and reduced import quotas for automakers. The Standing Committee on Industry and Technology is also preparing to study federal contracts tied to EV production.
Premier Ford’s U.S. ad campaign (which has been running for several weeks) caught President Trump’s attention following the tariff announcement, prompting a social media post from the President cancelling all trade talks. He also imposed an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods. The U.S. reaction underscores what Prime Minister Carney said last week: “Fortune favours the bold,” a call to rethink Canada’s reliance on its southern neighbour and rebuild economic strength at home.
With both the federal budget and Ontario’s fall fiscal update being tabled next week, all eyes are on how governments will turn that message into action; and whether Carney, Ford, Joly, and Champagne can keep investment in Canada as well as opening new doors abroad.
Double Trouble
Although Prime Minister Carney missed the Blue Jays’ World Series opener last weekend, he had a good excuse. He was busy launching a trade mission to Asia. During this trip, the prime minister will be visiting Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea in the hopes of expanding opportunities for Canada’s agriculture, energy and tech sectors. Before leaving, Carney pledged to double non-US exports over the next decade, raising the expectation that his trip will lead to some trade deals. If Carney is able to secure expanded market access in the Indo-Pacific, his government will face pressure to make long-overdue investments in port and rail infrastructure at home.
Expanding the western trade corridor would not only allow Canada to diversify its exports beyond the U.S. market, but also create an opportunity to put the government’s “Buy Canada” procurement policy into action. These investments would benefit domestic steel producers, labourers, and other related industries. Conservatives have noted that Canada already has existing trade agreements with these nations, so the onus is now squarely on the Liberals to prove they can translate diplomacy into tangible results, along with the investments in infrastructure needed to sustain it.
Atten-hut
The upcoming federal budget will require difficult choices regarding Canada’s defence spending. While the one-time $9 billion investment announced in June nominally meets the NATO 2% threshold, the critical challenge remains operationalizing and integrating it into the recurring budget.
To fulfill the government’s promise to balance the federal operational budget by 2028, funds from other departments will be required to cover increases in Canadian Armed Forces salaries, recruitment and retention. This is bound to be controversial.
This budget could also lay the fiscal groundwork for major capital investments in military equipment, foreshadowing how Canada intends to meet the 5% NATO spending targets by 2035. The Minister of National Defence has also promised to unveil the Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS) before the end of the year.
The government committed to accelerating rearmament, and aligning it with funding and procurement rules designed to enable faster delivery. Defence companies must recognize that this urgency could limit competition, potentially leaving those unprepared or poorly positioned on the outside looking in.
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