Your Election Day Look Ahead from Summa Strategies

Your Election Look Ahead

April 28, 2025
5 minute read

Platform & Campaign Announcements

Liberal Party of Canada

Liberal Leader Mark Carney cancelled his campaign events on Sunday morning to speak with reporters in Hamilton, Ontario. He offered his condolences for the tragic incident that happened Saturday evening at the Lapu-Lapu Day street festival in Vancouver, British Columbia. Carney was scheduled to end Sunday in B.C. including a stop in Vancouver, but his campaign cancelled those plans in wake of the incident. Carney was expected to proceed with smaller engagements in Saskatoon and Edmonton on Sunday.
Carney took his tour through battleground ridings this past weekend in the Greater Toronto Area. He also visited Windsor, Ontario, where U.S. President Donald Trump’s auto tariffs have caused job losses and real anxiety. On Saturday morning, Carney held a news conference at the Seneca College campus in King City, Ontario. He focused his message on protecting Canada from the threat of DonaldTrump.
Last Friday, Carney was at the Algoma Steel Plant where he highlighted his party’s promise to stand up for Ontario workers. He discussed various platform commitments, including to maximize Canada’s steel, aluminum, and critical minerals; create a $2 billion Strategic Response Fund to boost the Canadian auto sector’s competitiveness and build an all-in-Canada auto manufacturing network.
Carney held two media appearances in British Columbia last week, one in Victoria on Wednesday and another in Port Moody on Thursday. He highlighted platform commitments to stand up against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, protect B.C. workers, create new jobs, and cut taxes for the middle class.

Conservative Party of Canada

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre held a Sunday morning rally in Oakville, Ontario. He offered his condolences to congregants at a Filipino community church in wake of the tragedy that occurred at the Lapu-Lapu Day street festival in Vancouver, B.C. on Saturday evening.
Poilievre continued with his planned campaign schedule on Sunday, holding a rally in Oakville with whistle stops in Pickering, Keene, and his own riding of Carleton. Over the weekend, he campaigned in Vancouver and in ridings in Surrey and Delta, B.C., before flying to Sudbury, Ontario for an event on Saturday night.
Poilievre was in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, last Friday where he announced that if elected, he would keep Parliament in session all summer if necessary to pass three laws to bring change. They are the Affordability–For a Change Act, the Safe Streets–For a Change Act, and the Bring Home Jobs–For a Change Act.
Poilievre was in Halifax, Nova Scotia, last Thursday where he announced his plan to immediately scrap the ‘Car(ney) Tax’that Conservatives say will add a $20,000 tax on gas-powered cars starting next year. This comes after his previous commitment to axe the GST on Canadian-made cars.
Poilievre announced last Wednesday that a new Conservative government would amend the Criminal Code so that police have the tools to remove dangerous encampments and charge individuals when they endanger public safety or discourage the public from accessing public spaces.

New Democratic Party

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh attended the Lapu-Lapu Day street festival with the Filipino community in Vancouver, B.C. on Saturday evening where tragic events unfolded. He left just minutes before the incident happened. Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Singh said that the faces of the people he met, especially the children, were on his mind and that he would be there to support the community as they mourn.
Singh began the weekend campaigning in southwestern Ontario. His campaign was set to go ahead with a planned event in Penticton, B.C., on Sunday morning but cancelled all of his other campaign stops in wake of the attack.
Singh spoke to reporters at the OPSEU conference in Toronto last Friday. He told them that the first budget under an NDP government would propose measures to protect Canadians against the Trump administration. He also pledged to stop Liberal cuts to health care.
Singh held a press conference in Winnipeg, Manitoba, last Thursday where he promised that an NDP government would always fight for workers and that workers should be at the negotiating table. He highlighted recent news that in his call with Prime Minister Carney, President Trump made comments about Canada becoming the 51st state.
Singh made a policy announcement in Edmonton, Alberta, last Wednesday where he announced that an NDP government would put national rent-control in the next budget. He added that he would ban corporations from buying up affordable homes.

#ICYMI: Campaign News

Polls close tonight between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. eastern time, beginning with Newfoundland and Labrador and ending with B.C. After 9:30 p.m., polls from eastern Canada through the prairies will begin reporting results.
Politico published an interview with Ontario Premier Doug Ford on his thoughts about the federal election and how he thinks Poilievre should have run his campaign. He questioned why the federal Conservative leader didn’t focus more on US tariffs and coalition building.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney faced questions from reporters last week after sources reported that during his March 28th call with U.S. President Donald Trump, the president brought up the idea of making Canada the 51st American state, contrary to what Carney publicly stated at the time.
Minister of Finance François-Philippe Champagne concluded his participation in the meetings of the G7 and G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, last week in Washington, D.C. Minister Champagne and the Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem co-chaired the G7 meeting as part of Canada’s presidency of the G7 in 2025.
The government’s Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections (SITE) Task Force held its final planned technical briefing last Monday on the upcoming federal election. It published a backgrounder on its main findings.
According to Elections Canada, the riding of Carleton where Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is seeking re-election, had the highest voter turnout across Canada in the advance polls with 43,394 people who voted early in the riding.
Elections Canada has also reported that more than 89,000 international ballot kits were issued as of April 17, potentially tripling the number of expats who cast valid ballots in 2021.
The Conservative Party republished the English-language version of its platform released last Tuesday after what it said was a “publishing oversight.” They corrected the omission of a previous commitment to crack down on “woke ideology” in the public service and through federal funding for university research.
According to the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD), Canadian extremists may be capitalizing on the deteriorating relationship between Canada and President Trump’s administration. The organization claims to have analyzed more than 160,000 social media posts from Canadian domestic extremism accounts between March 1 and April 12.
Conservative candidate Larry Brock, who is seeking re-election in the Ontario riding of Brantford-Brant South-Six Nations, was in the news last week over allegations of $16,429.23 in overdue rent, according to provincial documents.

What We're Watching

Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.

Defining the Next Parliament – As the next Parliament convenes in the coming weeks, it faces immediate pressure to address escalating U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum, steel, softwood lumber, and autos. Given the negative impact these measures are having on Canadian workers, MPs will also need to consider relief measures for affected industries, potentially extending to other vulnerable sectors. Competing for space on the new government’s agenda will be a number of domestic issues. Affordability and cost-of-living remains top of mind for Canadians, as does the ongoing housing crisis. Two pressing policy areas that will require co-operation from the premiers are dismantling interprovincial trade barriers and healthcare reform. In a time of global uncertainty, one thing is clear – Canada’s new government will have a lot on its legislative agenda.

Hit the Ground Running – As soon as the winner’s name is announced tonight, he will have a long list of items to get to right off the bat. One of the first items of business for the prime minister will be appointing a cabinet. This will be followed by the Speech from the Throne to open the new session of parliament and to outline the government’s key priorities for the parliamentary session. The government will likely want to release a budget before the end of the first sitting but the date is far from certain. Above all, international affairs and trade will be top of mind for the government regardless of who wins today. Not only does the ongoing tariff war and tumultuous relationship with the United States need to be addressed, but Canada is hosting the G7 in June. Regardless of the outcome today, it will be imperative for the prime minister to hit the ground running.

A Path to Victory – The resurgence of Liberal support, riding redistribution, and the collapse of NDP support opened up several key battlegrounds for the Liberals and Conservatives in B.C. this election. The final week of the campaign saw all three leaders visit the province to do one final push for support. CPC Leader Pierre Poilievre held an event in Nanoose Bay last Friday indicating that the Conservatives are targeting Courtenay—Alberni, along with several of its neighbouring ridings currently represented by the NDP. The following day, Poilievre made a visit to Delta, which also borders several Richmond and Surrey target Conservative seats. Liberal Leader Mark Carney was in Victoria last week, a seat the the Liberals haven’t held for twenty years but is now a target seat though currently held by the NDP. On Thursday, Carney visited Coquitlam where the Liberals are hoping to pick up Port Moody-Coquitlam from the NDP. With public opinion polls pointing to a likely Liberal victory, B.C. could be the difference between a minority and majority government. It also could decide whether the NDP wins more than the 12 seats needed to retain party status in the House of Commons. This is likely why NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has held events in Vancouver East and Vancouver Kingsway, two of the party’s strongholds in the province. While decision desks may call the election results before votes are counted in B.C., Canadians in the East may have to stay up late to see how things truly end.

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