Your Election Day Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
Your Election Look Ahead
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Defining the Next Parliament – As the next Parliament convenes in the coming weeks, it faces immediate pressure to address escalating U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum, steel, softwood lumber, and autos. Given the negative impact these measures are having on Canadian workers, MPs will also need to consider relief measures for affected industries, potentially extending to other vulnerable sectors. Competing for space on the new government’s agenda will be a number of domestic issues. Affordability and cost-of-living remains top of mind for Canadians, as does the ongoing housing crisis. Two pressing policy areas that will require co-operation from the premiers are dismantling interprovincial trade barriers and healthcare reform. In a time of global uncertainty, one thing is clear – Canada’s new government will have a lot on its legislative agenda.
Hit the Ground Running – As soon as the winner’s name is announced tonight, he will have a long list of items to get to right off the bat. One of the first items of business for the prime minister will be appointing a cabinet. This will be followed by the Speech from the Throne to open the new session of parliament and to outline the government’s key priorities for the parliamentary session. The government will likely want to release a budget before the end of the first sitting but the date is far from certain. Above all, international affairs and trade will be top of mind for the government regardless of who wins today. Not only does the ongoing tariff war and tumultuous relationship with the United States need to be addressed, but Canada is hosting the G7 in June. Regardless of the outcome today, it will be imperative for the prime minister to hit the ground running.
A Path to Victory – The resurgence of Liberal support, riding redistribution, and the collapse of NDP support opened up several key battlegrounds for the Liberals and Conservatives in B.C. this election. The final week of the campaign saw all three leaders visit the province to do one final push for support. CPC Leader Pierre Poilievre held an event in Nanoose Bay last Friday indicating that the Conservatives are targeting Courtenay—Alberni, along with several of its neighbouring ridings currently represented by the NDP. The following day, Poilievre made a visit to Delta, which also borders several Richmond and Surrey target Conservative seats. Liberal Leader Mark Carney was in Victoria last week, a seat the the Liberals haven’t held for twenty years but is now a target seat though currently held by the NDP. On Thursday, Carney visited Coquitlam where the Liberals are hoping to pick up Port Moody-Coquitlam from the NDP. With public opinion polls pointing to a likely Liberal victory, B.C. could be the difference between a minority and majority government. It also could decide whether the NDP wins more than the 12 seats needed to retain party status in the House of Commons. This is likely why NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has held events in Vancouver East and Vancouver Kingsway, two of the party’s strongholds in the province. While decision desks may call the election results before votes are counted in B.C., Canadians in the East may have to stay up late to see how things truly end.
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