Home Stretch
Your Election Look Ahead
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Platform & Campaign Announcements
#ICYMI: Campaign News
What We're Watching
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No Debate About the Outcome – Pundits went into the federal leaders’ debates last week hoping for a political knockout that would change the course of the election. Well: better luck next time. Liberal Leader Mark Carney took most of the heat, but survived relatively unscathed. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre tried to brand Carney as “just like Justin” , slamming him on inflation and crime, while vowing to counter Trump’s tariffs. The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh attempted to fight his way into conversation, including with a focus on healthcare, but was unable to build much momentum in either debate. The Bloc’s Yves-François Blanchet accused Carney of Quebec flip-flops during the English debate. For his part, Carney remained cool and collected, focusing on stability and housing. He avoided major blunders both nights.
In its post-English debate poll, Abacus Data found that opinions over who won the debates varied. Poilievre came out ahead (but within the margin of error) for earned votes for those who watched the full debate, while Carney gained the highest net positive impressions. With Singh and Blanchet failing to register (at least in the immediate aftermath of the debate), the outcome of both nights may best be described as a draw.
Advance Polls – All campaigns are turning their attention to getting-out-the-vote now that the debates are behind them. And, it seems Canadians are very engaged: a record number of electors voted on the first day of advance polls. According to a preliminary estimate from Elections Canada, over 2M Canadians voted on Friday, with reports of long lines at polling stations over the Easter weekend. This has some observers predicting that turnout this election could rival 1988 when over 75% of Canadians cast a ballot.
Given how motivated voters appear to be, the race moves to a ground game in the final week. The NDP is expected to spend a lot of time in BC to galvanize their base, while the Liberals and Conservatives should be in the seat-rich GTA to consolidate their position during the homestretch.
While the Liberals remain in the lead, be sure to keep an eye on regional trends. The Bloc Québécois is on an upward trend according to poll aggregators, similar to the 2021 election, which could diminish the likelihood of a Liberal majority. A good performance by Yves-François Blanchet on Tout le monde en parle may convince Quebecers to vote for a French-speaking insurance policy.
A Parade of Promises – Voters had lots to chew on over Easter Dinner, with most parties releasing their complete platforms this past weekend. Liberal Leader Mark Carney released his party’s costed platform on Saturday. It included an additional $130B in spending over four years, along with $28B in program cuts. The NDP released their platform on the same day, with Leader Jagmeet Singh promising a $48B boost to the Canadian economy, offset by new measures such as a wealth tax. The Greens and Bloc Québécois also have put their full plans forward for voters. While lots of policy has come forward from the Conservative Party, their full, costed platform has not yet been released – leading to charges from critics that Leader Pierre Poilievre was looking to conceal budget cuts. With the Blue Team’s platform likely to drop today, expect opponents to go through the document with a fine-tooth comb as voters weigh their options ahead of April 28th.
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