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Your Election Look Ahead
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Table Talk – It’s debate week, giving Canadians plenty to discuss with friends and family over the Easter long weekend.
Liberal leader Mark Carney enters with momentum in the polls – and the most to lose. As the political “rookie”, Carney’s job will be to avoid getting dragged into traps laid by his more seasoned debate opponents. Wednesday’s French-language debate is a chance to highlight improvements from prior missteps, while his strategy for Thursday’s English debate will likely focus on continuing to position himself as best suited for dealing with President Trump. His goal: preserve and maintain the existing strong public perceptions that he has benefited from during the campaign so far.
With decades of experience debating in the House of Commons, Poilievre has a critical opportunity to reverse the public opinion trend with a strong debate performance this week. While his style may be to challenge his opponents (he has often been criticized for being his own “attack dog”), the debates present a rare chance to show Canadians he is ready to lead, and embody the “change” that many voters say they are looking for.
For the NDP and Bloc Québécois, the debates mark a crucial moment to break through in what has so far been a two-horse race. BQ leader Yves-François Blanchet will look to win back Quebec voters who are increasingly leaning Liberal, while Jagmeet Singh needs to get back in the fight – lest he risk losing official party status, and even his own seat in the House.
While debates rarely lead to major shifts in support, more Canadians appear to be tuned in to this close campaign than others before. At a minimum, it will give voters something to chew on at Easter Dinner.
House Party – Last week, all major parties unveiled their housing plans. First the Conservatives, then later the Liberals, promised to cut the GST from home sales, which they claim would reduce costs by tens of thousands of dollars for buyers. Other commitments have focused on use of public lands for affordable homes, and speeding up construction and permitting to accelerate building.
With Canada having the highest housing inflation in the G7, these policies are meant to address a crisis that is top of mind for many voters – but in particular, Millennials and Gen Z who are struggling to enter the market. A recent poll from our partners at Abacus Data shows that for Gen Z, the cost of living remains the top issue (46%), followed by housing (33%). While older Canadians have identified Trump as their top issue, US-Canada relations falls lower in the list as a pressing concern for young voters. Successfully capturing the youngest voters will be critical for parties who cannot rely on the Boomer vote to secure victory this campaign.
A Silent Majority? – Since announcing his intentions to become prime minister in 2022, Pierre Poilievre has made a play to reclaim potential Conservative voters who checked blue in 2019 but did not vote in 2021 – or, who voted for the People’s Party. These voters could be categorized as low-propensity conservative voters–those who lean right, but do not typically vote. The conventional narratives heading into April 28 could be upended if Poilievre can motivate new, or infrequent voters and move them to the ballot box with the same success he is having pulling them out to his rallies. However, as polling indicates Carney’s lead over the Conservatives is solidifying, it will be a major gamble to rely on voters who are traditionally unreliable.
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