A Tariffic Week
Your Election Look Ahead
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#ICYMI: Campaign News
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Taking the Lead – Liberal Leader Mark Carney put his prime minister hat back on last week as he was forced to respond to President Trump’s most recent tariff announcement. Polling has shown that Carney has a decisive advantage if the ballot question is who can best protect Canadians against Trump. Following President Trumps’ so-called ‘Liberation Day’, the Carney-led Liberals closed out week two of the campaign with a double digit lead over the Conservatives, according to a new Ipsos poll released on Sunday. Carney’s efforts to demonstrate a united Team Canada front with the premiers in support of Canada’s counter tariffs and provincial non-tariff measures, has reinforced the image of a calm captain able to weather the storm. With three weeks to go until election day, the challenge for Carney and the Liberals is to keep voters focused on this ballot question as they pivot back to campaign mode.
Pierre’s Plan – Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre responded to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff plan with agility, shifting his campaign to address this challenge while keeping domestic priorities in focus. To get ahead of media coverage later that day, he delivered a “keynote” speech emphasizing the need to protect Canada’s sovereignty against what he framed as unjustified U.S. actions. Poilievre’s planned approach is threefold: immediate reciprocal tariffs coupled with a “Keep Canadians Working Fund” to preserve jobs, a push to expedite CUSMA renegotiations to fully settle the trade dispute, and a long-term vision to bolster Canada’s economic defenses against future vulnerabilities.
As his election tour continues, expect to see a strategic blend of this “Canada First” message while still-pressing on cost of living issues to position the Conservatives as committed advocates for Canada’s sovereignty and its citizens’ prosperity.
Pardon? – Mark Carney’s campaign has been punctuated by mishaps that would typically infringe on sensitivities in Québec. His French is laborious, hindering his reassuring statesman narrative. Even though a third of Francophones believe that his French is not good enough to be Prime Minister, the Liberals continue to hold a twenty point lead over both the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois in the province, according to Leger.
Carney’s missteps have largely been balanced out by the steep decline of the Bloc Québécois’ popularity in an election largely defined by the trade war with the Trump administration. However, the BQ also faced a similar dip in 2021 but regained support following the debates. To achieve a majority government, the Liberals will need a strong showing in Quebec, with the French language debate on April 16th being a crucial test. Francophones got a preview of how each leader would defend their plan last Thursday with all five party leaders participating in Radio-Canada’s Cinq chefs, une élection. When asked how he would rate his French, Carney gave himself a six out of ten, noting he’d like to get to an eight or a nine in his first term. In this atypical election, that may be just enough to pass the test for Quebec voters.
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