Playing the Trump Card
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The Sword in the Stone –In Arthurian legend, successfully drawing the sword from the stone symbolized the path to rightful kingship. Canada’s political equivalent to this fable saw political leaders spend the first week of their campaigns snatching sword issues from their opponents’ grasps. CPC Leader Pierre Poilievre announced that he would maintain dental and pharmacare coverage for existing recipients, effectively nullifying an anticipated line of attack from Liberals and New Democrats claiming Conservatives would cut these programs. For his part, LPC Leader Mark Carney eliminated the consumer carbon tax (and its pending April 1 increase), cancelled the proposed hike in the capital gains inclusion rate, and introduced a housing plan very similar to that of the Conservatives. Despite these early moves, neither leader is on a certain path to 24 Sussex; there is plenty of runway to claim the crown ahead of April 28.
Numbers Game – Despite recent polling placing the Conservatives behind the Liberals, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre has effectively been able to draw in thousands of supporters to his “Canada First” rallies in key battlegrounds. His rally in Hamilton last week was able to lure 4,500 supporters, while one in Surrey B.C. reportedly drew a crowd of 5,500. By contrast, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s visit to Hamilton Mountain attracted a much smaller number of supporters. Hamilton is home to many blue-collar union workers, a voter group both Poilievre and Singh have made concerted efforts to try and win over. Meanwhile, Liberal leader Mark Carney has taken a notably different approach to campaigning than his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, who held frequent rallies during his three elections as party leader. Carney has focused on smaller events, and hasn’t yet been tested filling a large venue. While rallies traditionally show impressive organizational support, they don’t always move the needle on overall public sentiment.
Keep Your Friends Close – President Trump has reminded Canadians of the uncertainty we can expect over his four-year term, and party leaders are working to prove they can navigate it.
Currently, public opinion appears to favour Liberal leader Mark Carney to manage this relationship. Carney has made Canada-U.S. relations central to his campaign. Following Trump’s U.S. auto tariff executive order last Wednesday, Carney paused his campaign to convene the Cabinet Committee on Canada-U.S. Relations, meet with provincial and territorial premiers, and speak directly with President Trump. With April 2nd’s “Liberation Day” tariffs looming, he will have an opportunity to continue to put a spotlight on this issue headed into campaign Week #2.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has primarily focused on tax relief and affordability, while targeting his tariff message to two audiences: Canadian workers, and President Trump. Poilievre may face a more difficult challenge in drawing contrast with Trump based on public opinion polls, with some Canadians of the view that either his style or political ideology is too similar to that of Trump’s for their liking.
As Canadians continue to grapple with the damaging tariff approach initiated by the White House, the Liberals will look to highlight their ability to manage the trade dispute between leaders, while Poilievre attempts to position himself as being on the side of workers when facing down President Trump.
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