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Your Election Look Ahead
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The Trump Effect – Overshadowing the federal election campaign is the threat to Canada posed by the Trump Administration.
Abacus Data’s polling confirms that dealing with Trump has surged into a top issue for Canadians with 50 per cent ranking the issue in their top three issues facing Canada. That means political parties must compete to position themselves as the best choice to defend Canadian interests in the face of the threats from President Trump. It also means campaigns should expect volatility due to the influence of actions or disruptive comments from the White House.
Parties will have to be nimble in reacting to any developments on the Canada–US file from both a messaging and policy perspective. While the Carney-led Liberals start the campaign with a public opinion advantage on who is best to deal with Trump, this is based on a perception of Mark Carney that will be put to the test during the campaign.
Another potential curveball for campaigns is the ever present possibility that Trump could weigh in on the race directly. His commentary on Canadian politics and party leaders could prove to be an issues management nightmare for campaigns trying to control the narrative during a high stakes election. That’s due to the visibility of his comments and the fact that voters have clearly expressed a high level of anxiety over the harm the administration has threatened to the Canadian economy, industries and sovereignty.
Keep Calm and Carney On – Over the next 36 days, newly minted Liberal Leader Mark Carney is going to have to prove he can translate his economic acumen into success in the political arena. Still relatively unknown to many voters, Carney will face scrutiny from the Conservatives regarding his past corporate roles, and potential conflicts of interest related to his financial holdings.
At the same time, Canada-U.S. relations are set to play a dominant role in this election. According to Abacus Data, the Liberals are leading on the question of who is best suited to handle President Trump. While Carney spent his first days as prime minister focused on rolling back controversial Liberal policies like the carbon and capital gains tax, expect his campaign efforts to shift toward proactively framing the conversation around standing up to President Trump.
Despite his political inexperience, Carney is starting the campaign on a strong note. Whether he can adequately fend off his opponents attacks, while controlling the narrative on his own terms remains to be seen.
Poilievre’s Playbook – In the context of an election where the unpredictability of the Trump administration looms large, voters will be looking to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to prove he is ready and willing to take on the challenge of negotiating with President Donald Trump.
While affordability remains top of mind for voters and must be met with corresponding policy solutions, Canada-U.S. relations—and the federal government’s response—is set to dominate the conversation in the upcoming election.
Poilievre’s Conservatives will need to balance their reliance on the messaging of the past two years with the reality that many voters seem poised to cast their ballots based on who they believe is best suited to navigating the current trade tensions. Proving they are up to the task and positioning themselves as the only party capable of delivering real change after nearly a decade of Liberal governance could make or break their success on election day.
The Outsiders – The NDP has seen a rapid decline in public opinion polls in 2025. With the Liberals pivoting back to the center, the NDP should have opportunity to gain a larger share of the progressive vote. However, the crisis stemming from south of the border is causing the election to be framed as a contest between the Carney-led Liberals and Poilievre’s Conservatives. This has led to the consolidation of the anti-CPC vote around the Liberals—at least for now.
Jagmeet Singh may also be carrying the most baggage from the Trudeau era, which could further hinder the NDP’s chances.
For Yves-Francois Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois, the situation has been similar. The party was riding high in the polls in Quebec when Justin Trudeau reigned, but support has since dwindled. With Trump’s tariff threats dominating the news cycle, many progressive Quebec voters are now pinning their hopes on Carney.
The upcoming debates will be crucial for Blanchet, a skilled debater who will aim to make Carney stumble on issues of importance to Quebecers, while also trying to highlight Carney’s perceived weakness in speaking French.
Both the NDP and the BQ will need to work to insert themselves into the defining topic of this election: Trump.
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