The Homestretch
Your ON Election Look Ahead
- 4 minute read
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
It’s not over yet – Premier Doug Ford’s 2025 campaign has managed to keep the election conversation centred on the U.S. border and Trump’s influence, aligning with the PCs’ strategy. Yet, challenges have been present, including an unanticipated drop in support courtesy of relentless attacks from the Liberals and NDP, pointing out Ford’s perceived policy and personal flaws. Despite these setbacks, Ford’s campaign has avoided taking on too much water. With only four days left in the campaign, his ability to navigate these turbulent waters suggests that he is well-positioned to win a third consecutive election.
Come back to bite you – The Ontario PC war room has been active in the final days of the campaign, unearthing controversial comments made in the past by Liberal Party candidates. Most notably, Oshawa candidate Viresh Bansal was forced to suspend his campaign on Friday after a number of social media posts were released by the Ontario PCs. These included anti-Sikh posts from 2023 directed at NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and federal Deputy Conservative Leader Tim Uppal. Several Liberal candidates in Peel had to publicly denounce the comments, noting that voters were angry and disgusted by Bansal’s posts. We will know this week whether the Liberals’ vetting process, or lack thereof, could hurt their bid to pick up seats in Peel Region and the 905.
Stay the course – Less than a week before election day, Bonnie Crombie and Marit Stiles unveiled their election platforms on Friday. With a pledge to connect every Ontarian to a family doctor at the cost of $29 billion over four years, the Ontario Liberal Party doubled down on healthcare as their anchor point of the campaign. Stiles’ NDP also narrowed in on healthcare, promising to invest $10.5 billion to connect every Ontarian with a family health team. The biggest difference between the two parties is their approach to pay for the promises with the NDP proposing increased taxes (including a wealth tax) and the Liberals eyeing efficiencies and savings. Meanwhile, Doug Ford was in Washington, D.C. for the second time during the campaign. His PCs have focused their key messaging around tariffs and infrastructure with little attention on anything else. We will be watching to see if Ford’s unwavering focus on fighting tariffs will secure voter support, or if the Liberals’ and NDPs’ attention on healthcare will prevail.
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