Let’s Debate It | Your ON Election Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
Your ON Election Look Ahead
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What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Keep Calm and Carry On – We have passed the halfway point of the campaign, and the Progressive Conservatives still maintain their lead in the polls while the Ontario Liberals and NDP battle for second place. The uncertainty of President Trump’s tariff agenda has the electorate sticking with the incumbent – a trend seen in past election campaigns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Tariffs and cost of living are top of mind for voters, which is the best-case scenario for Doug Ford as the provincial Tories are the preferred party on both issues. Unfortunately for Bonnie Crombie and Marit Stiles, their focus on healthcare or education reforms has not resonated, and with only nine days remaining, it is a sentiment unlikely to change ahead of Ontarians heading to the polls.
What’s it gonna take? – With election day on the horizon, Premier Doug Ford continues to enjoy a comfortable lead. Despite valiant efforts to remind voters of the Premier’s past missteps, neither party has landed the proverbial knockout punch. From healthcare horror stories to the Greenbelt saga, Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie and NDP leader Marit Stiles have thrown everything at the PCs. While it has started to make a dent in the Premier’s personal impressions, both parties are still 13 points behind in the polls, meaning nothing has truly stuck. With no soundbites or clips coming from last night’s debate, it is hard to see what could change between now and February 27th.
Toe-to-Toe – The four party leaders faced off in the final debate of Ontario’s provincial campaign on Monday, just ten days before election day. Opposition leaders targeted Premier Doug Ford, who stayed firmly on message, repeatedly tying discussions to his party’s promise to “Protect Ontario” amid looming U.S. tariffs. Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie and NDP leader Marit Stiles attacked Ford’s record while trying to separate their parties from one another in the eyes of voters. Crombie targeted Ford’s healthcare policies, Highway 401 tunnel proposal, and Ontario Place redevelopment. Stiles, trying to catch the Liberals for second place in the polls, took aim at Crombie, asking the Liberal leader about why she took a donation from a private health clinic. While Ford was on the defensive, he leaned on his record, setting the stage for voters to decide who is best suited to lead Ontario.
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