And They’re Off
Your ON Election Look Ahead
- 3 minute read
- Premier Doug Ford reiterated his rationale for an early election call: to have a strong mandate to fight President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
- Ford also emphasized that Ontario is not vulnerable during the election period to the forthcoming trade war with the United States, while opposition parties have argued that Ford is using good polling numbers for personal gain.
- Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie has chosen to run in Mississauga East-Cooksville, a riding previously held by the former Progressive Conservative minister Kaleed Rasheed, who became an independent MPP after involvement in a Greenbelt-adjacent scandal. Rasheed is not running again.
- In the face of American tariffs, Ford stated that he would fly to Washington, D.C. twice during the provincial election period as chair of the Council of Federation (Canada’s Premiers) to advocate for Canada. While these trips would be funded by the Progressive Conservatives, Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie criticized Ford for flouting democratic norms.
Progressive Conservatives:
- Premier Doug Ford pitched himself as the best leader to take on President Donald Trump’s tariffs, using the backdrop of the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor to kick off his campaign. Ford stated that he needed a “strong, stable four-year mandate to do whatever it takes to protect Ontario”
- After going all-in to attract electric vehicle manufacturing to the province, Ford called on the next federal government to continue supporting the auto industry, including EVs.
- As part of the Ontario PCs campaign platform, the Premier announced $1 billion in funding for a provincial skills development program, expanding ongoing employment and training programs. He stated this was necessary to protect autoworkers from the tariff threat.
- Progressive Conservatives pledged to protect Ontario by building more roads and highways with investments in local infrastructure. PC candidate Prabmeet Sarkaria stated that this would create jobs.
- Ford also promised that a re-elected PC government would spend an additional $22 billion on infrastructure, housing, and other capital projects.
- In the vein of addressing crime, Leader Doug Ford pledged to increase funding for the Ontario Provincial Police and local police forces. He called for mandatory sentences, stating that if you “start using guns, [you will get] an automatic 10-year sentence.” He also discussed changing the young offenders’ act, stating that youth who commit crime “need to go away to youth detention for a long time.”
- Ford also spent the week touting endorsements from municipal politicians and unions, including LiUNA, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW), and Unifor Local 1285.
New Democrats:
- NDP Leader Marit Stiles launched her campaign in Toronto’s Regent Park, calling for change and highlighting affordability as the key issue for the party’s campaign, citing people leaving their communities and losing hope.
- Stiles also announced that the NDP would get rid of tolls on Highway 407 within 100 days if she were elected as premier.
- Stiles also addressed the controversial plan to turn farmland into industrial sites while at a farm in Wilmot Township. The plan is a collaboration between the Region of Waterloo and the provincial government to generate shovel-ready land for development.
- In anticipation of President Tump’s tariffs, Marit Stiles promised an income protection program for workers, and reiterated previous statements that her government would protect the electric vehicle sector.
Liberals:
- Leader Bonnie Crombie kicked off the campaign with a healthcare announcement, committing to bring 3,100 family doctors into the system to address shortages. She made the announcement while donning a hat with the slogan “Real Leaders Fix Healthcare.”
- Crombie also unveiled her tour bus in Toronto, with the slogan “2.5 million people have no family doctor” on one side and “11,000 people died waiting for surgery last year” on the other. She stated that her plan would be announced in the coming days
- In an announcement targeting GTA ridings, Crombie pledged to install barriers on the Toronto Transit Commission subway platforms and hire 300 special constables across different provincial transit systems to increase transit safety.
- At her campaign office in Mississauga East-Cooksville, Crombie criticized Ford saying that he has “put all our eggs in the EV basket,” and that there is a need for the province to diversify the economy.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Captain Canada – Premier Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives have made it clear that they are running on a platform to ‘protect Ontario.’ If the premier has his way, the proverbial ballot box question will be, “who is best to take on President Trump and his tariffs?” The premier wants to be seen as ‘Captain Canada’ and let those images permeate the campaign. His opponents will look to disrupt this narrative and shift the focus to the premier’s track record on housing, cost of living, healthcare and controversies such as the previously planned Greenbelt land swap. President Trump’s announcement on tariffs over the weekend have put that issue front and centre, turning attention away from the issues that the Liberals and NDP would prefer to be the focus of voters.
Catching the Campaign Bug – The Liberals will try to capitalize on Premier Doug Ford’s early election call depicting the Ontario PC Leader as an opportunist seeking to make this campaign a referendum on the state of Ontario’s healthcare system. While it is a perennial issue, horror stories about emergency room closures and images of Ontarians waiting in long lines for a family doctor in cold weather have brought the issue to the forefront. The Progressive Conservatives know they are vulnerable on healthcare. In an attempt to shield themselves, they enlisted former Liberal Health Minister Jane Philpott to chair their Primary Care Action Team and have matched the Liberals’ campaign promise to have every Ontarian matched with a primary care team by 2029.
You Can’t Afford to Lose – The Ontario NDP have focused the early campaign days on the rising cost of living and affordability concerns. Their recent pledges to eliminate tolls on the 407 and to build housing are geared to young families having a hard time making ends meet. In recent days, the ONDP have questioned Ford’s ability to negotiate with Trump on behalf of those who are not wealthy. It is an attempt to undercut Ford’s primary talking point head-on. The question is whether courting the millennial vote and playing defence on Ford’s diplomatic chops will be enough to mobilize voters to the ballot box.
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