Happy FES-tivus

Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies

The Latest – Top stories driving the news this week.
  • Housing Minister Sean Fraser is expected to announce today that he will not seek re-election and will leave cabinet during the next shuffle.
  • Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is expected to rollback the government’s position on the “Working Canadians Rebate.”
  • Premier Doug Ford will be hosting a press conference with other premiers following the conclusion of the Council of Federation’s fall meeting later today.
  • MPs passed an additional $21.6 billion in government spending as part of the supplementary estimates. The spending includes funds for programs such as First Nations child services, dental care, and compensation to Quebec for services to asylum seekers. 
  • Sources have indicated that there may be a cabinet shuffle before Christmas, with a major role potentially carved out for Mark Carney as the new finance minister. 
  • The two month GST holiday began on Saturday, which takes the GST off essential goods. The tax break runs until Feb. 15, 2025. 
  • Conservative and Bloc Québécois MPs rejected many of the recommendations in the antisemitism and Islamophobia reports from the House of Commons Justice committee. 
  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with premiers last Wednesday in response to President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs. Sources indicated that the meeting involved discussion of a federal plan to address Trump’s concerns, including retaliatory tariffs on a number of products. 
  • Experts are calling on federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to build relations with the incoming Trump administration. They point out that previous opposition leaders have paid visits to Washington, D.C.
  • The Bank of Canada cut the interest rate by half a percentage point to 3.25 per cent. The decision marked the fifth consecutive rate cut since June, suggesting that the pace of cuts will slow down moving forward. 
  • Last Friday, Labour Minister Steven McKinnon announced he’s sending the dispute between Canada Post and the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) to the Canadian Industrial Relations Board.
  • Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre stated he would adopt the Liberal’s military spending plan by following planned budget increases.
In the House – Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
  • The fall economic statement will be presented today at 4 pm. 

Committee Updates

  • FEWO will be meeting today to discuss hate-motivated violence targeting the 2SLGBTQI+ community
  • ENVI will be meeting today to draft instructions for the environment and climate impacts related to the Canadian financial system report and to consider the profits and emissions reduction efforts in Canada’s oil and gas industry draft report
  • FAAE will be meeting tomorrow to consider the draft report for Canada’s advancement of a two-state solution, discuss priorities and mandates of ministers of foreign affairs and international development, and deliberate on the supplementary estimates. Minister Melanie Joly and Minister Ahmed Hussen will appear.
In the Senate – Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
  • C-241, An Act to amend the Income Tax Act (deduction of travel expenses for tradespersons), sits at third reading. 
  • C-317, An Act to establish a national strategy respecting flood and drought forecasting, sits at second reading. 
  • C-26, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts.

Committee Updates

  • NFFN will be meeting tomorrow to consider the draft report for main estimates for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025.
In Case You Missed It – Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
  • TikTok remains hopeful that a “solution” can be found regarding the decision by the federal government to shutdown Canadian operations due to national security concerns. 
  • A Global News investigation found that visas were used as a foreign interference tool by India. The country reportedly withheld visas from individuals who were critical of the country. 
  • The federal government’s immigration cuts have impacted colleges and universities who rely on high numbers of foreign students, leading to less course offerings, job cuts, and possible closures. 
  • The leader of the national organization representing the Inuit has criticized Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s comments on the appointment of an Arctic ambassador.
  • Senior federal government sources confirmed that the federal government sold its stake in Air Canada. The government purchased a six per cent stake in the airline in 2021 as part of a COVID-19 bailout package.

Provincial Updates

A look at the top news across the country.

  • In Alberta, several 2SLGBTQ+ organizations are challenging one of the province’s transgender bills, which would bar doctors from providing gender-affirming treatment for those under 16.
  • Healthcare advocacy organizations in Manitoba are questioning the provincial government’s promise to boost health care, amid record emergency room closures due to staffing challenges. 
  • Alberta’s Environment and Protected Areas Ministry released data that named oilsands companies who allegedly failed to follow rules requiring them to pay for independent environmental monitoring.
  • Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced $29 million in funding for a new border security patrol unit. She stated that a federal plan on the border will be announced today. 
  • Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has called for a federal election over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s proposed response to President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threat. 
  • Former Alberta premier and NDP leader Rachel Notley is exiting her seat as of Dec. 30. She did not provide details on what comes next.
  • Premier Doug Ford has threatened to cut off energy supply to the U.S. in retaliation against President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs. Ford is considering the idea of barring sales of American booze
  • Staff and politicians in the Ontario legislature are pointing to signs of an early election, including fast-tracking of bills and the $200 stimulus checks. The fixed election date is June 2026. 
  • Premier Doug Ford’s proposed legislation to ban homelessness encampments in downtowns and enhance police powers on public drug use is not expected to become law until early 2025. The legislation was introduced last Thursday
  • Cycle Toronto, a cycling advocacy group, has launched a legal challenge against the province’s new bike lane legislation, which gives the government jurisdictional overreach in the installation and removal of municipal bike lanes.
  • An agreement has been reached between Quebec and Newfoundland on the Churchill Falls hydroelectric project. The previous agreement allowed Hydro-Québec to purchase 85 per cent of the electricity generated at the station for 0.2 cents per kilowatt hour. The new agreement boosts the price to 5.9 cents per kilowatt hour and includes investments in new Labrador hydroelectric developments. 
  • Premier François Legault has stated that he wants to ban praying in public.
  • Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston met with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last Monday to discuss shared priorities, including continued work on the Chignecto Isthmus and the National School Food Program. 
  • Zach Churchill stepped down as leader of the Nova Scotia Liberal party after it suffered a crushing defeat, going from 14 to two seats in the House of Assembly. He lost his seat in the riding of Yarmouth. 
  • Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston passed a motion to reduce the provincial portion of the harmonized sales tax by one point from 10 to 9 per cent, starting April 1, 2025. This means that Nova Scotia will have the lowest combined sales tax in the Atlantic provinces at 14 per cent, compared to 15 per cent for the others. 
  • Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston’s cabinet was sworn in last Thursday. The cabinet features 21 members and restructured government departments.

What We're Watching

Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.

Freeland’s Fiscal Focus – This afternoon, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will table the government’s Fall Economic Statement. She has described it as a “balanced plan” that will show the Liberals are “tackling the affordability crisis head-on.” More importantly, the statement will outline the government’s economic strategy as Canada approaches an election year in 2025. 

As all eyes search for details on topline items like the GST holiday, NATO spending targets, the implications of the recent immigration caps, and Canada’s role in clean technology innovation, there remains the question of whether Freeland will meet the government’s pledge to cap the budget deficit at $40 billion.

The Liberals have shown a penchant for dismissing fiscal prudence in the past. It would be remiss of voters to expect anything different with the tabling of this eleventh hour plan.

Poilievre’s Problems – Ahead of today’s Fall Economic Statement, Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre has not held back on his criticisms. He says that Minister Freeland and the Prime Minister repeatedly promise fiscal responsibility, but then keep on spending. 

According to Poilievre, the federal government is leading the country off a “fiscal cliff”, and the only hope is his party’s “common sense” approach to fixing the budget. 

The most recent polling by Abacus Data shows that 51% of Canadians believe the Conservative Party is the best party to handle the economy, so the Liberals will have their work cut out for them in the weeks and months ahead.

Gold, Filibuster and Myrrh – Chrystia Freeland’s Fall Economic Statement is going to run head-long into a legislative brick wall – a months-long filibuster of government business in the House of Commons. There are options to keep legislation moving despite the freeze up, like initiating pre-studies at committee. But such options are predicated on an eventual thawing out of Chamber operations. So what happens to key legislative components of the FES if nothing changes?

The government could use the bill to pressure opposition parties to end the filibuster. Alternatively, it could prove to be a bargaining chip to gain support to suspend the filibuster and pass the bill all at once. Both are long shots. If there is a deal in the works, a good indication will be whether the FES expands eligibility for the government’s proposed $250 rebate. Though there’s speculation this morning that the plan could be scrapped entirely, so all bets could be off.

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