It’s Beginning to Look A Lot Like Recess

Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies

The Latest – Top stories driving the news this week.
  • The country’s relationship with the United States continues to dominate conversation in Ottawa. Over the weekend, Québéc Premier Francois Legault, and Conservative MP Jamil Jivani met with senior members of the incoming Trump administration. This follows PM Trudeau’s visit to Mar-a-Lago last week to discuss the President-elect’s tariff threats on Canada’s economy. 
  • Canada’s spy agency says it will release “some” information to Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, related to election interference. Prime Minister Trudeau has stated he has knowledge of Conservatives vulnerable to, or involved in, foreign interference, but Poilievre has refused to obtain a confidential briefing on the matter, saying it would prevent his ability to speak or act on information contained within. It is anticipated this briefing with select information will occur in the near future.
  • Tension in the House of Commons is high, with parties stalling one another’s opposition day motions, and very little movement on key pieces of legislation. There is considerable pressure to ensure supplementary estimates are passed prior to the new year. Canadians are also awaiting a later-than-typical Fall Economic Statement, which will provide an update on the country’s finances.
  • Canada’s unemployment rate jumped to 6.8 per cent last month as more people looked for work in a weak job market, shifting expectations toward a jumbo interest rate cut next week. Statistics Canada’s November labour force survey says the jobless rate last month reached the highest since January 2017, outside of the COVID-19 pandemic. The unemployment rate was 6.5 per cent in October.
  • Major news emerged over the weekend that Syrian rebels have overthrown the Assad regime and taken control of Damascus. Bashar al-Assad has reportedly fled Syria, bound for Russia with his family. This will have a significant impact on the dynamic in the Middle East, including Russia and China’s next steps in the region.
  • Canada will appoint a new Arctic Ambassador and open two new consulates in the region to help deal with what it calls changing geopolitical dynamics in the Arctic, as part of its newly launched Arctic Foreign Policy. 
In the House – Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
  • Monday and Tuesday will be opposition days. 
  • Tuesday night, members will be voting on Supplementary Estimates B, which includes funding on issues such as dental care, housing, indigenous reconciliation, the national school food program and much more. 

Committee Updates

  • INDU will meet on Monday to discuss supplementary estimates, as well as competitiveness of Canada’s e-transfer ecosystem. Ministers Champagne and Freeland are expected to appear, as are witnesses from Interac.
  • FEWO will meet on Monday to discuss Hate Motivated Violence Targeting the 2SLGBTQI+ Community. 
  • JUST will meet on Monday to continue pre-study on Bill C-63. 
  • CHPC will meet on Monday to discuss matters related to CBC/Radio Canada. 
  • CIIT will meet on Monday to discuss Trade Impacts of Canada’s Leadership in Reducing Emissions. 
  • HUMA will meet on Tuesday to get an update from leaders at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
  • NDDN will meet on Tuesday to discuss the Department of National Defence and Canadian Armed Forces Contaminated Sites. 
  • SECU will meet Tuesday to examine a draft report on auto theft, and hear from additional witnesses as part of its study into Russian disinformation campaigns.
  • FAAE will meet Thursday to hear from Ministers Joly and Hussen on their mandates, as well as departmental supplementary estimates.
In the Senate – Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
  • C-241, An Act to amend the Income Tax Act (deduction of travel expenses for tradespersons), sits on third reading. 
  • C-317, An Act to establish a national strategy respecting flood and drought forecasting, sits on second reading. 
  • C-78, An Act respecting temporary cost of living relief (affordability), sits on third reading. 
  • C-26, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts. On December 5, a consideration message was sent to the House of Commons.

Committee Updates

  • SECD will meet on Monday to Examine and report on issues relating to national security and defence generally. 
  • NFFN will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday for Supplementary Estimates (B) for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. 
  • TRCM will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to Study matters relating to transport and communications generally. 
  • AEFA will meet on Wednesday and Thursday to Examine and report on Canada’s interests and engagement in Africa. 
  • AGFO will meet on Thursday to discuss the growing issue of wildfires in Canada and the consequential effects that wildfires have on forestry and agriculture industries.
In Case You Missed It – Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
  • Federal Justice Minister Arif Virani met with the chief justices of Canada’s four federal courts on Friday, after they warned of a budgetary shortfall creating “critical” pressure on their operations, including efforts to clear a backlog of immigration filings in three major cities. 
  • The Liberal government has outlawed another 324 firearm varieties — guns it says belong on the battlefield, not in the hands of hunters or sport shooters. 
  • The House Speaker’s Office said it was an “operational decision” by the House administration to remove Commons pages from an antechamber during a heated late-night House session over the tax holiday bill on Nov. 28. On Dec. 2, NDP House Leader Peter Julian raised a point of order alleging some Conservative MPs of being drunk during the Nov. 28 House debate on the temporary GST/HST tax holiday bill.
  • Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said he agrees with NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on one thing: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are too weak to fight for Canadians. Poilievre kicked off debate in the House of Commons Thursday on a cheekily worded Conservative motion designed to use Singh’s own words against him.
  • The parliamentary budget officer estimates Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, aluminum and steel will increase federal revenues by $473 million over five years.
  • A surprise tactical move by the NDP forced a debate in the House of Commons on abortion access Thursday, sidelining a Conservative motion designed to use NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s own words against him. 
  • The Senate has amended the government’s cybersecurity bill, C-26, and sent it back to the House of Commons. The amendment fixes an unintended drafting error that could have nullified half the legislation. The bad news: C-26 lands back in the House at a time of total gridlock, meaning it is unlikely to become law anytime soon.

Provincial Updates

A look at the top news across the country.

  • British Columbia Premier David Eby says his fellow premiers and the federal government have hatched a game plan to fight U.S. tariffs, with conservative premiers lobbying Republican counterparts, left-leaning provincial leaders courting the Democrats, and Ottawa focusing on president-elect Donald Trump.
  • The B.C. minister of children and family development said she is stepping down from cabinet after receiving a cancer diagnosis last month. Grace Lore says she will stay on as the MLA for Victoria-Beacon Hill but will take a temporary leave from the ministry.
  • British Columbia is launching a review of the province’s 911 emergency service after complaints about escalating costs and lack of transparency. Public Safety Minister Garry Begg says in a statement the review is to “ensure these services remain effective and sustainable for years to come” and to understand the cost increases.
  • Gil McGowan, Alberta Federation of Labour president, discusses the AFL’s concerns over the provincial government’s foreign worker recruitment efforts. He called it ‘ironic and hypocritical.” 
  • Alberta Health Minister Adriana LaGrange has signed a deal with her federal counterpart to expand access to medication for people with rare diseases. LaGrange joined federal Health Minister Mark Holland in Edmonton to announce millions in spending on both emerging and proven drugs, as well as on diagnostics and screening.
  • A new report says Alberta’s oil and gas producers spent $769 million cleaning up old wells last year, a $73 million increase from the prior year.
  • The Manitoba government is looking to bring in tougher penalties for people who are convicted of impaired driving offences that cause injury or death. A bill introduced in the legislature Thursday would impose a lifetime licence suspension on a driver convicted of two such offences within a 10-year period.
  • Manitoba banned public health providers from signing new contracts with private nursing agencies months ago, and has now issued a request for proposals that would allow approved agencies to continue operating in the province, Health Minister Uzoma Asagwara says.
  • Legislation aimed at dismantling homeless encampments in Ontario will soon be introduced, Premier Doug Ford announced Thursday, along with a pledge to use the notwithstanding clause if the courts “interfere.”
  • New public opinion polling from Abacus Data shows Premier Ford’s PC Party with a sizable lead over the opposition Liberals and New Democrats, as rumors about an early 2025 election continue to swirl.
  • Police were justified in using a drug dealer’s phone to orchestrate the arrest of a suspect in a drug trafficking operation without first getting a warrant due to the urgency of the situation, Canada’s top court ruled Friday in dismissing an Ontario man’s appeal.
  • The Ontario Labour Relations Board says the government is not unlawfully locking out provincial engineers who are taking part in rotating strikes.
  • Ontario’s minister of economic development is calling on the Bank of Canada to further lower interest rates in an effort to spur job creation — which comes as the province’s unemployment rate hit levels not seen since 2014, pandemic years excepted.
  • Québéc Premier Francois Legault met with President-elect Donald Trump, billionaire Elon Musk, and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy while in Paris. According to a post on social media, the Premier discussed border security and tariffs with Trump. 
  • The Quebec government has adopted a bill giving the province more power to restrict foreign students’ access to higher education institutions. By amending Quebec’s immigration law, Bill 74 provides education and higher education ministers more leeway in restricting international students’ entry as of next year.
  • The Quebec government says it will table legislation to strengthen secularism in schools, following the latest in a series of reports about Muslim religious practices appearing in some of the province’s public schools.
  • The Fédération interprofessionnelle de la santé du Québec (FIQ) has finally signed its new collective agreement for nurses with the Quebec government, bringing the long negotiations to an end. The new collective agreement will come into effect on Dec. 15. The previous agreement expired on March 31, 2023. The negotiated salary increases will, therefore, be retroactive to Apr. 1, 2023.
  • A new national study says Nova Scotia’s leadership position in energy efficiency has been overtaken by other provinces, including its closest neighbours. The “Canadian Energy Efficiency Scorecard” has the East Coast province tumbling from second place in 2022 to fifth this year, while Prince Edward Island is now tied with Quebec for second place, and New Brunswick has moved ahead to fourth spot.
  • The number of people in Nova Scotia looking for a family doctor is the lowest it’s been in two years. The provincial health authority released new numbers on Thursday that show 119,670 people were on the need-a-family-practice registry as of Nov. 27. That’s down from 132,166 people, a number the health authority posted online without notice on Nov. 4 during the recent provincial election.
  • Police and a road-safety expert say the deaths of three pedestrians in the span of a single day this week serve as a tragic reminder to be cautious and follow road-safety rules. Eric Hildebrand, a civil engineering professor at the University of New Brunswick with 40 years of experience in road safety, said pedestrian fatalities are relatively rare but this time of year requires extra awareness.

What We're Watching

Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.

Backing the Border – Following the now infamous Mar-a-Lago dinner party, the hot topic of the week has been Canada’s border with the United States. Trump stated that he did not want drugs, like fentanyl, crossing in from Canada, and expressed concern over illegal migration. As the RCMP and CBSA prepare a list of new measures that could be quickly approved and implemented, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc has shared that there will be more human resources, helicopters and drones allocated at the border in the new year. In a new Leger poll, 58 per cent of Canadians stated that they believe more action should be taken to strengthen the border.

As a response to Trump’s tariff threats, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has called for a cap on asylum seekers and a stronger border plan. With no end in sight for the gridlock in Parliament, he stated that the Conservatives would make accommodations in the House to pass border measures. 

Fighting for the Working Class – The Conservatives introduced their third non-confidence motion of the fall last week, this time with wording highlighting criticisms made by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh of the Liberal government’s handling of labour disputes. Singh’s quoted remarks criticized controversial interventions by the Liberals in recent workplace disruptions, as all parties seek to court blue-collar workers ahead of the next election. The ongoing Canada Post strike is the latest action the government is trying to navigate amidst a “pro-worker” political dynamic.

It’s not just the Liberals and New Democrats speaking to unionized labour. The Conservatives have intensified efforts to appeal to union members disillusioned with the Liberals, positioning themselves as advocates for workers. However, Singh has dismissed these efforts, and the CPC motion as political “games”, suggesting programs benefiting working class Canadians such as dentalcare and pharmacare would be cut by Conservatives. While the immediate battle of the confidence motion is likely to be lost, the war to win Canada’s working class wages on.

Ready, FES, Go – We head into mid-December with a yet-to-be-tabled Fall Economic Statement, and no public date for its release. Despite the filibuster in the House, this can be delivered at any time. Implementing legislation, however, may be much more challenging, given ongoing privilege debates in the House that have stalled the business of governing.

But there are signs political will can shoulder through key initiatives even amidst House dysfunction. The NDP worked with the Liberals to pass the GST “holiday”, and the Bloc Québécois seems poised to allow the passage of supplementary estimates. Even the Conservatives have suggested they would allow parliamentary progress, provided it involves border security.

Stasis may be the new normal for this charged parliament. But ad-hoc deals to address time-sensitive issues seems the most likely roadmap for parliamentary functionality between now and the next election.

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