Thanksgiving in Mar-A-Lago

Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies

The Latest – Top stories driving the news this week.
  • Prime Minister Trudeau travelled to Florida over the weekend for a meeting with President-elect Trump. The former President hosted Trudeau, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Trudeau’s Chief of Staff Katie Telford for a dinner that included Trump’s incoming National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, Howard Lutnick, his pick for commerce secretary, among others.
  • Officials familiar with the high stakes surprise meeting said they discussed trade, the border and fentanyl – issues the former President has cited as grounds for his threat of a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada. Other topics included defence, NATO, Ukraine and China.
  • In a news conference, Pierre Poilievre called on the federal government to present a plan before Parliament to strengthen border security and cap the number of asylum seekers in the wake of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Canada.The federal government is expected to announce border security investments in the weeks ahead, either through the fall economic statement or separately if parliamentary gridlock continues. These planned announcements follow U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s vow to impose 25 percent tariffs on all products from Canada and Mexico until both countries address his allegations of drugs and immigrants illegally entering the U.S. 
  • Israel announced a ceasefire plan with Lebanon this week after more than a year of war that has brought trauma and destruction to both sides of the border.
  • The Liberals’ GST holiday bill was passed by a majority of the House of Commons late Thursday night.
  • NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said that while his party supported the Liberals’ GST holiday, he will not support the $250 rebate cheques unless the government expands eligibility, saying the rebate leaves out “the most vulnerable.”
  • On Wednesday, the Prime Minister held a virtual First Ministers’ Meeting to discuss the Canada-U.S. relationship, alongside the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland, the Minister of Public Safety, Democratic Institutions and Intergovernmental Affairs, Dominic LeBlanc, RCMP Deputy Commissioner, Mark Flynn and Canada’s Ambassador to the United States, Kirsten Hillman.
  • After the emergency First Ministers’ Meeting on Thursday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said that the provinces are stepping in to fill a border leadership void caused by Ottawa’s inaction on border security, citing Quebec’s Roxham Road.
  • A former chief of staff to Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said Canada needs to significantly strengthen its border because it cannot absorb large numbers of migrants who could potentially flee here to evade U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s pledge of mass deportations.
  • Mexico’s lead trade negotiator, Luis Rosendo Gutierrez, said Prime Minister Trudeau’s willingness to cut a trade deal with the U.S. alone came as a betrayal, adding that it has already proven to be a mistake.
  • The union representing Canada Post workers said the Crown corporation has been laying off striking employees as the labour action by more than 55,000 workers approaches the two-week mark.
  • Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon said the federal government is not planning to intervene to resolve the labour dispute at Canada Post, even with less than a month to go before Christmas.
In the House – Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
  • House Leader Karina Gould said that Monday, Tuesday and Thursday shall be opposition days. She said she shared a unanimous consent proposal with the opposition parties that would pause privilege debates to allow the Conservatives and the NDP to have their opposition days next week.
  • Bill C-63, An Act to enact the Online Harms Act, currently sits at second reading in the House. 
  • Bill C-71, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act (2024), currently sits at second reading in the House. 
  • Bill C-66, An Act to amend the National Defence Act and other Act, currently sits at second reading in the House.

Committee Updates

  • CIMM will meet today to discuss recent reforms to the International Student Program.
  • RNNR will meet today for the consideration of a draft report on Canada’s clean energy plans in the context of North American energy transformation.
  • PACP will meet today to discuss the 2024 reports 8 to 12 of the Auditor General of Canada.
  • FINA will meet tomorrow for the consideration of a draft report on pre-budget consultations in advance of the 2025 budget.
  • NDDN will meet tomorrow and Thursday to discuss the Department of National Defence and Canadian Armed Forces contaminated sites.
  • PROC will meet tomorrow to discuss Bill C-65, An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act.
  • AGRI will meet on Thursday to discuss railways: issues and opportunities for Canadian agriculture.
In the Senate – Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
  • C-26, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts, currently sits at the committee stage. 
  • C-317, An Act to establish a national strategy respecting flood and drought forecasting, sits at second reading in the Senate.
  • C-252, An Act to amend the Food and Drugs Act (prohibition of food and beverage marketing directed at children) sits at third reading in the Senate. A committee report was presented on Thursday, November 28.

Committee Updates

  • SECD will meet today to discuss Bill C-26, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts.
  • TRCM will meet tomorrow to study matters relating to transport and communications generally.
  • LCJC will meet on Wednesday and Thursday to discuss Bill C-321, An Act to amend the Criminal Code (assaults against persons who provide health services and first responders).
  • AGFO will meet on Thursday to examine and report on the growing issue of wildfires in Canada and the consequential effects that wildfires have on forestry and agriculture industries, as well as rural and Indigenous communities, throughout the country.
In Case You Missed It – Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
  • Businesses across the country have been trying to figure out how to implement the Liberals’ GST holiday request that falls smack in the middle of the holiday season.
  • The Minister of National Defence Bill Blair said the Treasury Board has decided to exempt the Department of National Defence and the CAF from any other reductions as the government seeks to find $15-billion in savings. 
  • Calling for improved job security, compensation, and working conditions, CN Rail mechanics and clerks voted to authorize strike action if no deal is reached by January 1, 2025. Negotiations resumed in Montreal on November 25 and will continue through December 8.
  • The government relocated a diplomatic posting in the Global Security Reporting Program in China that was once held by Michael Kovrig from Beijing to Singapore earlier this year.
  • In an interview at the start of her second term in office, Commissioner of Lobbying Nancy Bélanger said one of her priorities will be to make corporations more transparent and fully register their lobbying of ministers, MPs and federal officials.
  • Minister of International Trade, Mary Ng, welcomed fellow Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) members in Vancouver, B.C. for the eighth CPTPP Commission meeting from November 27 to 28.

Provincial Updates

A look at the top news across the country.

  • The Supreme Court of Canada has ruled that British Columbia can bring forward a class-action lawsuit against pharmaceutical providers for harms caused by opioids on behalf of other provinces, territories and the federal government.
  • At the same time as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump accuses Canada of failing to secure its border with the United States, an Oregon resident has pleaded guilty to conspiring to transport dozens of undocumented migrants smuggled across the B.C. border by foot and freight train.
  • The CEO of B.C. Ferries is warning the company may need to increase fares by 30 percent or more in 2028 when the current fare structure expires.
  • Alberta is taking the federal government to court, saying Ottawa has failed to follow through on what Premier Danielle Smith calls necessary changes to a law governing resource development. Premier Smith says the Alberta government will ask the Alberta Court of Appeal to rule on the constitutionality of the federal Impact Assessment Act, which was amended earlier this year.
  • Critics are outraged over the Alberta government’s $23-million plan to renovate half of the Edmonton Young Offender Centre to treat youth with addictions. Youth advocates suggested a separate facility is needed, saying housing offenders and youth with addictions at the same site criminalizes a health issue and puts youth at risk.
  • The Ministry of the Solicitor General announced Friday that small and rural Ontario municipalities saddled with significant hikes to their law enforcement bills from Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) will see financial relief from the province.
  • The City of Toronto is set to replace aging subway cars on Line 2 Bloor-Danforth, after the federal government announced $1.2 billion in funding for the TTC on Friday.
  • The provincial Liberals are sounding the alarm as more than three million Ontarians could be at risk of losing their family doctor to retirement with thousands of family physicians over the age of 60.
  • The Quebec government announced it is suspending foreign recruitment missions until mid-2025 — yet another measure aimed at limiting the number of temporary residents in the province.
  • Quebec’s newest Crown corporation, Santé Québec, officially took control of the province’s healthcare system this past weekend and is tasked with tackling an anticipated $1.5-billion deficit. In an update Friday morning, Health Minister Christian Dubé said Santé Québec has been mandated to return to a balanced budget, a task he described as “non-negotiable.” 
  • Prosecutors have dropped criminal harassment and mischief charges that were levelled against three pro-Palestinian activists who protested outside the offices of federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller.
  • Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives won a second consecutive majority government in Nova Scotia’s provincial election on Tuesday. The NDP also made notable gains, becoming the Official Opposition; NDP Leader Claudia Chender will become the first elected female Leader of the Opposition.
  • New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt emerged from the First Ministers’ Meeting with her counterparts and the prime minister, speaking of a “strong commitment to strengthening our borders” among Canadian political leaders.
  • Nova Scotia’s Utility and Review Board has approved a $500-million bailout that the federal government offered Nova Scotia Power two months ago.
  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Friday that the federal government will contribute $7.1 million over the next three years to help expand Prince Edward Island’s school food program.

What We're Watching

Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.

Reuniting “Team Canada”? – The “Team Canada” approach of a united front of the federal and provincial governments worked well in trade negotiations with the previous Trump administration, but there are signs that it may not be as successful in a second Trump term. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has questioned whether Trudeau is the right person to lead Canada’s defence in a potential trade fight with the US. At the same time, Ontario Premier Doug Ford stated that the federal government has been slow to act and is stuck on the back foot. Both premiers have suggested that Canada pursue a bilateral deal with the U.S. – without Mexico – seeking a “carve-out” from import tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump is promising. In addition, Premier Smith and Quebec Premier François Legault have both argued that Trump has legitimate concerns about the state of Canada’s border security. An emergency First Ministers’ meeting was held last week and border security featured as a top priority for federal and provincial leaders. While the parties said they were pleased with progress made, it’s clear there is still much more work to do to form a re-united front in defence of Canadian interests. That united front would seem to hinge on the forthcoming federal response to address border security concerns.

Once in a Blue Wave – Elected in 43 ridings across the province, Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives (PC) won a second consecutive majority government in Nova Scotia’s provincial election. Despite this victory, ruling party gains are trending downward when considering other provincial elections across the country. In New Brunswick, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan, anti-incumbent sentiment was a clear factor in the ousting of incumbent Blaine Higgs, the tight race that brought David Eby back to victory, and the reduced majority for Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party. Even Premier Houston’s victory can be viewed through an anti-incumbency lens as the PC campaign capitalized on Prime Minister Trudeau’s ever-declining popularity by framing his provincial Liberal opponents as one in the same with the Trudeau Liberals. Houston’s young government avoided the pitfalls of incumbency in seeking a strengthened mandate through a snap early election call and by leaning into the political centre. Let this be a lesson that timing is everything.

A (Tax) Holiday from Parliamentary Gridlock – The Liberals and NDP passed legislation that will remove the GST for a range of items, while the CPC and the Bloc Québécois withheld their support. The passage of this legislation marks a significant departure from the procedural impasse that has transfixed Parliament over the last few weeks. The NDP intentionally flexed their bargaining power by successfully stalling the Liberals’ $250 rebate plan until eligibility is expanded to include seniors, students, people on disability and those unable to work last year.

The magnifying glass on NDP support for the Liberals will continue next week, as the Conservatives target Jagmeet Singh in their next non-confidence motion. The utmost challenge for the NDP Leader remains effectively communicating strong dissent with the Liberals, while holding the federal election at bay.

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