A Lot Going On at the Moment

Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies

November 25, 2024
6 minute read

The Latest – Top stories driving the news this week.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will eliminate GST on some goods and services starting Dec. 14 and ending Feb. 15, 2025. He also announced that Canadians who worked in 2023 and made less than $150,000 will receive a $250 “Working Canadians Rebate” in spring 2025.
After months of controversy and questions, Minister Randy Boissonnault is no longer in the Trudeau cabinet. Veterans’ Affairs minister Ginette Petitpas-Taylor will take over the Employment, Workforce Development and Official Languages portfolios temporarily.
Despite aiming criticism at directors of an oil industry association he deemed a ‘money-sucking lobby group,’ Pierre Polievire repeatedly met with said directors at fundraisers, according to an investigation by the Investigative Journalism Foundation.
Minister of Public Safety Dominic Leblanc said he is confident in agencies along the border that are tasked with enforcement, but that he would increase resources if needed.
Experts say that President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed energy council could provide trade opportunities for provinces rich in energy resources.
The federal government is asking Parliament to approve $411 million for the interim federal health program, which covers health care costs of refugees and asylum seekers. This request comes at a time where the number of refugees and asylum seekers is increasing.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has indicated that all provinces and territories in Canada are aligned with him on his view that the federal government should negotiate a bilateral trade deal with the U.S., to the exclusion of Medico. Ford currently chairs the Council of the Federation, a group representing all 13 premiers.
Last Monday, B.C. Premier David Eby introduced his new cabinet which consists of 27 ministers.
Prime Minister Trudeau and Foreign Minister Melanie Joly affirmed that they would abide by the warrant issued by the International Criminal Court, and arrest Israeli PM Netanyahu should he enter Canada. The decision has highlighted the fissure between ICC member states, like Canada and many European countries, and the United States, which is not officially a member.
President-elect Donald Trump has announced former Michigan congressman Pete Hoekstra as his pick for Ambassador to Canada.

In the House – Key Green Chamber business set to play out.

We are keeping a close eye on how house business may be impacted this week, as the NDP and Liberals have agreed to work collaboratively to pass the proposed GST holiday, which comes into effect December 14.
When the SDTC question of privilege is dispensed with, the government’s priorities are Bills C-71 (Citizenship), Bill C-66 (Military Justice), the Ways and Means motion related to capital gains and the Ways and Means motion on charitable organizations.
Bill C-63, An Act to enact the Online Harms Act, currently sits at second reading in the House.
Bill C-71, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act (2024), currently sits at second reading in the House.
Bill C-66, An Act to amend the National Defence Act and other Act, currently sits at second reading in the House.

Committee Updates

FEWO will meet on Monday to discuss gender-based violence and femicides against women, girls and gender-diverse people.
ENVI will meet on Monday to discuss environment and climate impacts related to the Canadian financial system, and profits and emissions reduction efforts in Canada’s oil and gas industry.
PACP will meet on Monday to discuss Report 6, Sustainable Development Technology Canada, of the 2024 Reports 5 to 7 of the Auditor General of Canada.
RNNR will meet on Monday to discuss committee business.
CIMM will meet on Monday to receive a briefing on the 2024 Annual report to Parliament on Immigration and discuss supplementary estimates. Minister Marc Miller will attend the meeting.
INDU will meet on Monday to discuss credit card practices and regulations in Canada.
JUST will meet on Monday to discuss Bill S-13, An Act to amend the Interpretation Act and to make related amendments to other Acts. Minister Virani will attend the meeting.
CACN will meet on Monday to discuss Canada-People’s Republic of China relations and committee business.
HESA will meet on Tuesday to discuss the opioid epidemic and toxic drug crisis in Canada.
OGGO will meet on Tuesday to discuss indigenous procurement and postal service in Canada’s rural and remote communities.
NDDN will meet on Tuesday to discuss the Department of National Defence and Canadian Armed Forces Contaminated Sites.
FINA will meet on Tuesday to conduct pre-budget consultations in advance of the 2025 budget.
NDDN will meet on Thursday to discuss the defence policy update. Minister Jean-Yves Duclos will attend the meeting.
HESA will meet on Thursday to discuss women’s health.

In the Senate – Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.

C-26, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts, currently sits at the committee stage.
C-317, An Act to establish a national strategy respecting flood and drought forecasting, currently sits at second reading.
C-252, An Act to amend the Food and Drugs Act (prohibition of food and beverage marketing directed at children), currently sits at the committee stage.

Committee Updates

SECD will meet on Monday to discuss Bill C-26, an Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts.
NFFN will meet on Tuesday to discuss study matters relating to federal estimates generally and other financial matters Supplementary Estimates (B) for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025.
BANC will meet on Wednesday and Thursday to examine and report on Canada’s monetary policy framework.
AEFA will meet on Wednesday to examine and report on Canada’s interests and engagement in Africa.
AGFO will meet on Thursday to discuss The growing issue of wildfires in Canada and the consequential effects that wildfires have on forestry and agriculture industries.

In Case You Missed It – Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has indicated that all provinces and territories in Canada are aligned with him on his view that the federal government should negotiate a bilateral trade deal with the U.S. Ford currently chairs the Council of the Federation, a group representing all 13 premiers.
Records show that senior officials in the Canada Revenue Agency knew about the gaps in its fraud detection system that allowed for millions of bogus payouts.
According to insiders, President Joe Biden has authorized U.S. long-range missiles for use by Ukraine. These missiles would be used for limited strikes inside Russia.
While discussing recent immigration changes, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau blamed “bad actors” for abusing the system and admitted that the government could have moved more quickly in addressing the issue.
Japan will not be taking part in the procurement bid for Canada’s new submarines, despite the country’s manufacturers producing an in-service design that would expedite delivery to Canada.
Opposition MPs expressed concern that a foreign owner of one of Canada’s largest forestry businesses, Jackson Wijaya, has also acquired “sole control” of the Indonesian-Chinese pulp and paper conglomerate Asia Pulp & Paper.

Provincial Updates

A look at the top news across the country.

Last Monday, B.C. Premier David Eby introduced his new cabinet which consists of 27 ministers. The most significant change is Eby’s decision to remove the ministry of mental health which will now be the minister of health’s responsibility.
B.C Conservative leader John Rustad has assigned 41 out of 44 members of his caucus to his shadow cabinet. Rustad’s shadow cabinet consists of several former members of the B.C. United.
Strong winds brought on by a bomb cyclone left thousands of British Columbians without power last Wednesday.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith repeated Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s concerns on trade with Mexico, stating that she hoped Canada would be exempt from import tariffs promised by President-elect Donald Trump.
Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been appointed to serve as chairman of the board of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo). This comes after the entire AIMCo board, along with four of its executives were removed.
In his second throne speech, Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew has pledged to create more competition in the grocery sector, freeze electricity rates for one year and to increase surgical capacity.

Pre-budget consultations for Budget 2025 are now open in Ontario. Submissions close on February 3, 2025.
Ontario’s NDP has appointed former Toronto mayor David Miller as a special advisor. In this role, he will aid the leader in making a new deal for municipalities.
Last week, Ontario’s Minister of Immigration David Piccini indicated that the government will be tabling legislation aimed at protecting newcomers against fraud and exploitation.
Ontario’s Workplace Safety and Insurance Board will be returning its $2 billion surplus to employers that have not been convicted more than once under the Workplace Safety and Insurance Act or the Occupational Health and Safety Act since 2020.
Ontario is the third province to join the national school food program, having struck a $108.5 million deal with the federal government.
Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie pledged that she would fund the police. Notably, Crombie’s Liberals were cool to the federal Liberal’s GST holiday proposal.

Riots erupted in Montreal late Friday as anti-Israel protestors vandalized buildings and vehicles near to a gathering of NATO member nations
Last Monday, Quebec introduced its action plan aimed at improving access to abortion and reaffirming a women’s right to choose. The province has allocated $7.5 million to back this plan.
Quebec’s provincial police are stepping up their presence at the Canada-U.S. border ahead of Donald Trump’s presidency.
Quebec Finance Minister Eric Girard delivered the province’s fall economic update, which detailed $2 billion in new spending for target areas of forestry, housing, public safety, and public transit.

The Nova Scotia Progressive Conservatives remain the most popular political party in the province with 44 per cent of voters indicating they intend to vote for the PCs. The NDP places in a distant second with 28 per cent support and the Liberal Party in third at 24 per cent. The election will be held on Tuesday.
The Premiers of New Brunswick and PEI are asking the federal government for financial assistance, noting they were not provided notice about the Liberal’s proposed GST holiday.
Nova Scotia N.D.P. leader Claudia Chender has promised to build 30,000 new affordable rentals homes by 2028 if elected to serve as premier.
New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt outlined her government’s priorities in the first 100 days in office. Holt has targeted cost-of-living and health care as key priority areas.
A New Brunswick judge dismissed the case against industrial defendants, such as Irving Oil, after ruling that Aboriginal title can be declared over privately owned land.
In P.E.I., a legislative committee issued a rare subpoena to demand unredacted information on the NHL sponsorship deal, headed by Tourism Minister Zach Bell. Documents submitted revealed that the promotional deal with the NHL will cost taxpayers between $7.5 million and $8.4 million over three years.

What We're Watching

Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.

Tariffs, Trade and (Bilateral) Talks – Last week’s G20 Summit in Brazil provided an opportunity for Prime Minister Trudeau to hold what may be his final bilateral meeting with current US President Joe Biden. The prime minister spoke to both Biden and Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum about the upcoming CUSMA review. Uncertainty over the agreement is high, following Ontario Premier Ford and Alberta Premier Smith’s calls to remove Mexico from the trade deal – a proposal Deputy Prime Minister Freeland appears open to exploring. There have been concerns around Mexico’s differing approach to Chinese investment, as America and Canada have increasingly moved toward tariffs against the country. In the meantime, President-elect Trump has discussed the idea of placing a 10% tariff on all imports, including on Canadian goods. Businesses are watching closely, though sectors like steel and forestry may have more to worry about than the oil and gas sector, which could emerge unscathed.

Eby Cabinet Choices Signal Greater Collaboration – Re-elected B.C. Premier David Eby announced his new cabinet last week. His picks are designed to highlight the B.C. NDP’s focus on affordability, housing, health care and climate change. With 27 members, the cabinet includes both veteran and new voices, including 17 women in ministerial roles. Key appointments include Niki Sharma as Attorney General and Deputy Premier, Josie Osborne as Health Minister, and Brenda Bailey as Finance Minister. Bailey will be tasked with managing a record $9 billion deficit. Eby also emphasized last week that significant collaboration between parties is needed for the legislature to function, acknowledging the Conservatives’ strong campaign on affordability and safety, which earned 43% of the vote. The NDP holds 47 of 93 legislature seats, underscoring the need for bipartisan cooperation to advance its agenda. The makeup of the cabinet selection strives to reflect a strategic approach to tackling pressing challenges, elevating some notably centrist MLAs that may serve as bridge-builders to opposition parties.

GST Holiday Impacts on House Business – Activity in the House of Commons is largely at a standstill, as two questions of privilege have seized the chamber. This week, the Liberal government tabled 29,000 pages of documents related to Sustainable Development Technology Canada, in an attempt to resolve the first matter of privilege – though this fell short of the opposition’s expectations. As the Liberals seek to return to regular business, the resignation of Employment, Workforce Development & Official Languages Minister Randy Boissonnault may create a path to see the second privilege matter dispensed with. But as of today, there’s no indication either matter will be promptly resolved. While the NDP have agreed to break the parliamentary logjam to allow the GST holiday measure to pass, that is for one day only. That leaves unanswered questions about the future of the Fall Economic Statement, supplementary estimates, and other legislative items that have been on hold for well over a month.

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