Ports and a Storm
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
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Shot Across the Bow – In recent history, Canadians have never gone to the polls demanding that their government get serious on defence spending. This lack of urgency, combined with Canada’s position as a soft middle power, have created the conditions for limited military spending.
But the times may be a-changing. The geopolitical situation in the world is increasingly unstable. U.S. lawmakers have also levelled criticism at the Trudeau government’s plan to meet NATO defence targets by 2032. In their view, Canada represents a threat to the long-term viability and success of NATO. With President Donald Trump set to return to the Oval Office, pressure to increase defence spending will only ramp up in the weeks and months ahead.
Later this week, Defence Minister Bill Blair will head to the Halifax International Security Forum, where he will join international military experts to discuss ways to strengthening global cooperation. Whether Canada is willing to put its money where its mouth is and pay its fair share is sure to be a hot topic of conversation.
Team Canada Reboot – The Trudeau Liberals are attempting to position themselves as the party best able to manage relations with the Trump administration. In support of this ascertion, they point to their track record of protecting Canada’s interests during the president-elect’s first term.
The political circumstances, however, have shifted dramatically since the Trudeau government was left to negotiate with the United States on critical matters like trade. Team Canada 2.0 doesn’t hold the same weight as it did under the majority mandate of the late 2010s. There are also a whole suite of new issues like defence spending, border security and across-the-board tariffs to contend with.
Incoming Trump appointees have also been vocal about their dislike of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his policies. But, that doesn’t mean the Trudeau government has nothing going for it at the negotiating table.
Minister Freeland and other members of Trudeau’s cabinet have valuable experience and relationships with the Trump administration. These touchpoints could prove useful as the Prime Minister attempts a full court charm offensive.
How Canada shows up, and on what issues, matters. Voters here at home will be heading to the polls soon and Canada-U.S. relations could be a litmus test at the ballot box.
Labour Unrest – After a days-long lockout that hindered shipping in Vancouver and Montreal at Canada’s two biggest ports, Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon sent both disputes to binding arbitration and ordered dockworkers back to work.
With Parliament at a legislative standstill over a matter of privilege, the government was unable to introduce back-to-work legislation. This meant the Minister to exercise a powerful, but controversial, ministerial authorization to force the parties into binding arbitration.
This is the second time the Liberal government has intervened this way in a major labour dispute in recent months. It’s a heavy-handed approach to labour relations for a government that has prided itself on being ‘pro-worker’.
To add to the mounting labour issues, Canada Post workers officially went on strike last Friday. This will be another critical test for the Liberal government who will have to decide whether to stand in solidarity with Canada’s labour movement or bow to growing pressure from Canadian businesses.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has managed to avoid taking a position on these fraught labour issues. In a bid to capture the working class union vote, the Conservatives have pledged not to introduce anti-union bills if elected.
As the next federal election creeps closer, expect the government to make efforts to regain the votes of working-class Canadians. It’s a base that was crucial to their 2015 landslide victory.
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