Brace for Impact
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
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Brace for Impact – Questions about how a Trump or Harris administration will impact Canada’s relationship with our closest ally loom with less than 48 hours before U.S. election night. Neither campaign has put foreign policy at the centre of their messaging, and polling has shown that international affairs rank relatively low among voters’ concerns. Canada has faced criticisms from the Biden and Trump administrations for not meeting NATO’s military spending target. The question remains whether this pressure will stay civil or become more assertive. On trade, both Trump and Harris have protectionist agendas and aim to pursue American economic interests which could be at Canada’s expense. Both campaigns have vowed to renegotiate NAFTA and there is uncertainty about how either administration would approach the upcoming CUSMA review. No matter the outcome, it is crucial for Canada to get our own affairs in order and a plan in place.
Too Little, Too Late? – After ceding the airwaves to the Conservatives for most of Poilievre’s tenure as leader, the Liberal Party is finally launching a new ad campaign. A number of new advertising spots were presented to Liberal MPs at their most recent caucus meeting, seeking to warn voters about the prospect of a Poilievre government while highlighting progressive Liberal programs. While Liberal MPs will welcome the party’s ad buy, the question remains: with the Liberals trailing Poilievre’s Conservatives by 20 points, is it too little, too late? For two years, the Conservatives have had the unfettered ability to introduce their leader while presenting an issue set to voters to frame the next election. Given the Conservatives’ head start, the Liberal ads may be contending with firmly established views in the minds of voters.
Loyalty Tests – The (pending) slim majority election results in British Columbia have forced Premier Eby to spend the bulk of his time post-election attempting to secure cross-party cooperation from the Greens, as well as endeavoring to entice a Conservative to sit as a Speaker. The razor-thin margin guarantees that the vote of each MLA will be crucial and the caucus whips will have a critical role in ensuring that MLAs are present for all votes. In terms of the immediate next steps for this government, the tight results have delayed the resumption of policy-making. Premier Eby himself has clarified that he does not currently foresee that his government will have the runway for a fall session wherein he can introduce new legislation.
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