This House is Haunted
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 7 minute read
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
All Eyes on Provincial Elections – Last week’s provincial election in New Brunswick saw the Progressive Conservatives go down to defeat as Liberal leader Susan Holt led her party to a decisive, majority win.
Holt’s campaign focused primarily on new ideas around economic growth, healthcare, and inclusivity while rejecting Premier Higgs’ policies on language rights and education reform. The New Brunswick Liberals also made a concerted effort leading up to, and during the election period, to distance their party from unpopular federal policies like the carbon tax.
This demonstrates that voter fatigue with the incumbent Progressive Conservative government may have played a bigger role in the electoral outcome in New Brunswick than the strength of the Liberal brand.
Expect federal political parties to be watching closely for broader national trends that can be applied to their own playbooks. With recent provincial elections having already taken place in British Columbia and New Brunswick, a snap election called yesterday in Nova Scotia, and voters heading to the polls today in Saskatchewan, there will be no shortage of data to draw conclusions from.
Immigration Altercation – During a press conference last week to announce significant cuts to Canada’s immigration targets, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau admitted that the federal government “didn’t get the balance quite right,” on addressing labour needs and maintaining population growth following the COVID-19 pandemic.
To course correct, the Trudeau government will reduce the number of permanent residents in 2025 by 21 per cent. In response, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre called the decision a “flip-flop.”
The timing of the change in policy stance isn’t a coincidence. A recent poll by Abacus Data found that one-in-two Canadians view immigration negatively, signalling a significant shift after decades of broad-based acceptance of the contributions of newcomers.
While once considered a sleeper issue, the conversation around immigration looks like it will become more prominent during the next federal election and it will be up to the Liberals to defend their record.
Prorogation lite?– The House of Commons hasn’t debated legislation for almost a month because of an impasse over a question of privilege.
The deadlock in the House means no progress can be made on government bills or Private Members’ Business. Bills, including the Fall Economic Statement, can still be introduced and Routine Proceedings, Member Statements, and Question Period continue as normal.
It’s not an enviable position for the Trudeau government, who continue their downward slide in public opinion polls. Not only does the impasse pose a problem for getting legislation passed, it has prevented the Liberals from putting forward a cohesive narrative on their priorities for the fall session.
While the Conservatives also can’t make progress on debating Private Members Bills, they have seemingly made the calculation that stalling the Trudeau government’s legislative agenda is worth the trade-off.
For now, the NDP and Bloc have stood on the sidelines, biding their time. Unless the Liberals are willing to come to the table with a serious trade, the Conservatives aren’t expected to blink anytime soon.
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