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Follow the Leader | Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies

Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies

  • 5 minute read
The Latest – Top stories driving the news this week.
  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will reshuffle his cabinet in the coming weeks as four more federal cabinet ministers announced they will not run for re-election.
  • The growing dissatisfaction of Atlantic Liberal MPs was on full display last week as several expressed their concerns on and off the record about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership.
  • Voters in British Columbia are left wondering who will lead them, following a too-close-to-call result in Saturday’s provincial election. Just one seat currently separates Eby’s NDP and Rustad’s Conservatives, with the Greens holding the balance of power at two seats. There are a number of recounts anticipated in the coming days. 
  • Explosive testimony at last week’s foreign interference inquiry is expected to spill over into the House of Commons this week. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is calling on Prime Minister Trudeau to release the names of parliamentarians who are targeted or otherwise implicated in foreign interference, following the Prime Minister’s testimony at the inquiry that elected officials of multiple parties were either knowingly or unknowingly involved with foreign state actors. 
  • Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew made his province the second in the country to sign on to the $1 billion federal school food program.
  • India’s High Commissioner to Canada denies any involvement in the murder of Canadian Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was shot and killed in B.C. last year.

In the House – Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
  • Bill C-63, An Act to enact the Online Harms Act, sits at second reading. The government hopes to move it after questions of privilege have been dispensed with.
  • Bill C-71, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act (2024). 
  • Bill C-66, An Act to amend the National Defence Act and other Act. 

Committee Updates

  • CHPC will meet on Monday to discuss Senior Management Compensation at CBC/Radio-Canada.
  • CIIT will meet on Monday to discuss Protecting Certain Canadian Manufacturing Sectors, Including Electric Vehicles, Aluminum and Steel, Against Related Chinese Imports and Measures. Minister Ng and Minister Champagne will appear as witnesses at the meeting. 
  • PACP will meet on Monday to discuss the SDTC report. 
  • FEWO will meet on Monday to discuss Breast Cancer Screening for Women Aged 40.
  • JUST will meet on Monday to discuss Islamophobia and Additional Measures that Could be Taken to Address the Valid Fears that are Being Expressed by Canada’s Muslim Community.
  • CIMM will meet on Monday to discuss Closed Work Permits and Temporary Foreign Workers. 
  • NDDN will meet to discuss Briefing on the Situation in the Indo-Pacific Region. A delegation from the Parliament of Ukraine will attend the first session of the meeting. 
  • FAAE will meet on Tuesday to discuss Canada’s Approach to Africa.
  • FINA will meet on Tuesday to discuss Pre-Budget Consultations in Advance of the 2025 Budget.
  • SRSR will meet on Tuesday to discuss The Mission, Mandate, Role, Structure and Financing of the New Capstone Research Funding Organization Announced in Budget 2024.
In the Senate – Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
  • Bill C-20, An Act establishing the Public Complaints and Review Commission and amending certain Acts and statutory instruments. 
  • Bill C-284, An Act to establish a national strategy for eye care. 

Committee Updates

  • TRCM will meet on Tuesday to study matters relating to transport and communications generally.
  • AGFO will meet on Tuesday to discuss the growing issue of wildfires in Canada and the consequential effects that wildfires have on forestry and agriculture industries.
In Case You Missed It – Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
  • Liberal MPs Yasir Naqvi and Chandra Arya rebuked public criticism by other caucus members of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, via an email sent to the entire Liberal caucus. 
  • Liberal MP for Charlottetown Sean Casey said Tuesday that Trudeau’s leadership has become one of the main topics of conversation when he speaks to voters in his riding.
  • Liberal MP Anthony Housefather said there should be “robust” conversations about the viability of Trudeau continuing on as party leader.
  • Global Affairs Canada announced last week that six Indian diplomats and consular officials had received a notice of expulsion from Canada.
  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified last Wednesday that Canadian intelligence agencies have information that multiple Conservative politicians are “engaged” in or at risk from foreign interference schemes.
  • Testimony from one of Prime Minister Trudeau’s most senior advisors revealed that the PMO intervened in 2019 to keep Han Dong off of a House of Commons committee probing Canada’s relations with China.

Provincial Updates

A look at the top news across the country.

  • Voters in British Columbia are left wondering who will lead them, following a too-close-to-call result in Saturday’s provincial election. Just one seat currently separates Eby’s NDP and Rustad’s Conservatives, with the Greens holding the balance of power at two seats. There are a number of recounts anticipated in the coming days. 
  • According to Elections B.C., a record number of British Columbians cast their ballots in advance voting ahead of Saturday’s provincial election. The elections body said 1,001,331 people had already voted prior to the weekend.
  • B.C. is getting another area code to meet the demand for new phone numbers. Following a decision by the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, area code 257 will be introduced as the province’s sixth active area code starting May 24, 2025.
  • At a continuing care conference, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced that she aims to create a new platform that works much like Uber to replace the province’s online continuing care director. A day later, she said it is aimed at making it easier for patients to navigate spaces.
  • A former Alberta justice minister is set to be sanctioned after the provincial law society determined he “undermined respect for the administration of justice” when he phoned Edmonton’s police chief after receiving a traffic ticket.
  • Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew’s NDP government is set to become the second province to sign on for a slice of the $1 billion federal school food program.
  • Manitoba’s NDP government has halted a plan by the former Progressive Conservative government to build new schools in partnership with the private sector.
  • The province of Manitoba launched an advertising campaign to boost influenza and COVID-19 vaccine uptake ahead of flu season.
  • Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe said last Thursday that his “first order of business” if re-elected this month would be to establish a policy restricting students’ use of change rooms in the province’s schools to their sex assigned at birth.
  • While addressing a lunchtime crowd of more than 1,000 at the Empire Club in Toronto last Thursday, Ford not only doubled down on the province’s plan to prevent future bike lanes from being built in cities if it means taking out other traffic lanes but went one step further, saying he was going to bring “sanity back to bike lane decisions.”
  • The Ford government is set to table new bike lane legislation next week as part of a suite of measures designed to tackle gridlock. This legislation would require cities to get provincial approval for some bike lanes. None of the 444 members of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario were consulted.
  • Premier Doug Ford announced plans to send rebate cheques to Ontarians as part of its fall economic statement.
  • Ontario’s top court ordered a new hearing for a youth-led constitutional challenge of the provincial government’s emissions target.
  • Employees of the SAQ, Quebec’s government-run liquor board, walked off the job Friday afternoon, forcing the closure of most outlets in the province. The strike, touted as a surprise by the employees’ union, began at 2:30 p.m. and continued until closing time.
  • Quebec’s anti-corruption unit released an annual report Wednesday showing a rise in the number of whistleblower reports and convictions. 
  • Quebec’s largest nurses union reached a deal with the provincial government more than a year and a half after their collective agreement expired in March 2023.
  • Quebec’s health minister reassured the public that they won’t lose their family doctors, following a controversial proposal suggesting the redistribution of physicians from healthy patients to the most vulnerable populations.
  • Former Liberal MP Andy Fillmore will be the next mayor of Halifax, fending off challenges from his nearest rivals in a crowded field of candidates to win Saturday’s municipal election. 
  • On Thursday, Nova Scotia Education Minister Becky Druhan announced that the Nova Scotia government is hiring 47 “specialized staff” to keep its public schools safe.
  • According to Nova Scotia Health, the Nova Scotia registry for people seeking a primary care provider is at its lowest since 2022, but there are still tens of thousands of people waiting for a connection.
  • Premier Higgs said New Brunswick is ahead of the game on 2030 emissions targets. 
  • Retired Summerside physician Dr. Wassim Salamoun was installed as the 43rd lieutenant governor of Prince Edward Island.

What We're Watching

Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.

When It Rains, It Pours – After a week of internal turmoil, including calls for Prime Minister Trudeau to step down and four cabinet ministers deciding not to seek re-election, Trudeau’s grip on the Liberal caucus appears shakier than ever. Since 2015, Trudeau has navigated several ups and downs with caucus by his side; now, the party appears far from united. As Parliament returns from the Thanksgiving break, Trudeau must calm frustrated backbenchers, rally loyalists to fill his front bench, and manage a Parliament paralyzed by a fight over release of government documents. Wednesday’s caucus meeting could be the tipping point in what has been a tumultuous year for his leadership.

Foreign Interference, Domestic Implications – Last week, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats amidst allegations of crimes ranging from extortion to murder. India’s government has denied the allegations and has expelled Canadian diplomats in response. As the RCMP probe continues, more information is expected to emerge.

Prime Minister Trudeau testified at the foreign interference commission Wednesday, stating that multiple Conservative MPs are engaged in, or at high risk of, foreign interference schemes. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has demanded the names of those involved be released.

There is a significant Indian diaspora community in Canada, including the largest population of Sikhs in the world outside India. As the domestic political implications of these foreign interference allegations take shape, all party leaders will have a careful line to walk.

New Aid for Ukraine – National Defence Minister Bill Blair concluded a tour of Argentina, Belgium, and Italy for several multilateral security forums. While in Brussels at a NATO meeting, Blair announced an additional $64.8 million in military assistance to Ukraine, consisting of small arms, ammunition, uniforms, and fund transfers for drones and support. 

Overall, Canada has made fewer announcements in support of Ukraine this year than in years past, with an increasing focus on international fund transfers and small ammunition production, over the provision of larger capabilities. 

As questions linger over how ambitious Canada may be in providing support to Ukraine heading into 2025, the country’s domestic defence industry is looking to the government to develop an industrial supply chain approach that is less transactional in nature. Current and future governments will need to quickly turn attention towards futureproofing the Canadian Armed Forces by addressing low inventory, aging platforms, and providing steady and reliable support that goes beyond individual conflicts.

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