A Matter of Privilege
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 7 minute read
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Saskatchewan Showdown – A third province is heading to the polls this month as voters in Saskatchewan get set to cast their ballots on October 28th. It is a two-party race between the governing Saskatchewan Party, seeking its fifth consecutive majority, and the opposition NDP, looking to build on the 14 seats it had at the dissolution of the Legislature. Several polls indicate that the NDP is narrowly trailing the governing party and has a higher chance of winning seats in urban areas. However, with almost half the seats in rural areas, the Saskatchewan Party retains the electoral advantage. The 27-day campaign is certain to contain some federal flavour. Premier Scott Moe has been one of the loudest opponents of the carbon tax and in the early days of the campaign, is attempting to tie it to NDP Leader Carla Beck through the Supply and Confidence Agreement struck by Beck’s federal cousins.
Earning Her Support – The Conservatives have amassed considerable support among female and young voters, demographics that have traditionally favoured progressive parties and helped elect Justin Trudeau as prime minister in 2015. An Abacus Data poll conducted earlier this month revealed that 37 per cent of women said they would vote Conservative, compared to 23 per cent who plan to vote Liberal. According to the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, women’s rate of employment in Canada increased from 54.1 per cent in 2020 to 58.3 per cent in 2022, around the same time that Canadians began to struggle with the cost of living. Women and young people are disproportionately impacted by the affordability crisis, which may explain the interest in the Conservatives’ message and the strained affinity towards the governing Liberals and their progressive agenda.
NDP Temperature Check – The government’s pharmacare legislation is set to become law next week after passing through committee consideration sans amendments. Once pharmacare is passed, a massive item on the NDP’s to-do list will be checked off. The federal party is looking to avoid an election, for now, and has cited grocery consumer protection measures as a consideration in their revamped raison d’être. (More than half of their MPs are from BC, a jurisdiction squarely focused on a fraught election.) Notably, the most recent Abacus Data national poll shows that the NDP has surpassed the Liberals outside of Quebec. If these polling trends continue, the NDP’s attitude towards an imminent election could shift significantly.
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