The Confidence Game
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
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Will There One Day Be No Confidence? – Since the dissolution of the supply and confidence agreement earlier this month, the name calling and finger pointing in the House of Commons continues to be a defining theme of the fall session. While a snap election before the Christmas break seems unlikely, there remains a reasonable degree of uncertainty on parliament hill.
Last week, the CPC introduced (and lost) their first motion of no confidence, and intend to move another this week. For the time being, the Bloc Québécois has indicated they will not support efforts by the CPC to force an election, so long as the Trudeau government passes two of its private member’s bills focused on providing support for seniors and protecting supply management by October 29th.
With that deadline fast approaching, the Bloc will use their opposition day this week to force the Liberals to show their hand. As the Trudeau government fights for survival, chances are good they will meet the Bloc’s demands to prevent an early election call.
A Revival in the Big Apple – After spending much of the summer criss-crossing the country to hear the concerns of Canadians, the Prime Minister headed back to the global stage last week. He travelled to New York City to meet with world leaders and attend the 78th gathering of the United Nations General Assembly.
In a nod to the sunny ways of 2015, Trudeau also made an appearance on the The Late Show with Stephen Colbert for a softball interview. During all of his engagements, Trudeau appeared energized and spoke of Canada’s leadership on issues of international security, human rights and climate change.
While the Prime Minister continues to be a sought-after figure on the global stage, low domestic polling numbers and the constant threat of non confidence votes in the House of Commons await at home. Reviving his image through a compelling international presence is more challenging when an election could happen at a moment’s notice.
Provincial playbook – Voters in British Columbia will head to the polls on October 19th and there’s a close two-way race playing out between the BC NDP and the fledgling BC Conservatives.
With just over three weeks left on the clock, campaign announcements from the parties have been steadily rolling out the door. The focus has been on hot button topics like housing, affordability, addiction and recovery, and healthcare.
It should come as no surprise that the issues on the hustings in BC closely mirror the concerns Canadians have at the federal level. It is reasonable to assume that federal political parties will be monitoring the results of next month’s election closely to see which policies resonate with voters, in the hopes they can fine tune their own political playbooks.
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