The Confidence Game
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 7 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- The Israeli military announced on Saturday that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had been killed in an airstrike in Beirut, dealing a major blow to both Hezbollah and Iran.
- Officials from the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service (CSIS) unveiled two new examples of foreign interference, in addition to those already released. A foreign government tried to get a Liberal candidate defeated and a former parliamentarian is suspected of having worked to influence parliamentary business on behalf of another country.
- Opposition Conservatives are rejecting the federal government’s decision to restrict the sale of nicotine pouches to pharmacies, saying it makes “little sense” to remove them from small businesses.
- Brookfield plans to invest billions of Canadian pension fund dollars in housing, physical and digital infrastructure, renewable energy and privatized public assets. The $50-billion Maple Fund, as Brookfield calls it, would be the “largest-ever private pool of capital dedicated to investing in the Canadian economy.”
- MPs and cabinet ministers say there is “a different tone” to the protests on the Hill recently with interactions occurring where politicians have been chased, heckled, and harassed. This has triggered tightened security measures in and around the Parliamentary Precinct.
- CTV has dropped two members of its news team after an altered clip of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre went to air in a recent national news report, according to a statement from the network posted to social media.
- Canada’s ambassador to Lebanon says she is “confident” in plans to evacuate Canadians out of Lebanon amid the escalating conflict between Israel and militant group Hezbollah. Ambassador McCollum said around 20,000 of 45,000 Canadians in Lebanon are registered with Global Affairs.
- Proposed changes to the federal capital gains tax could undermine the viability of the agriculture sector because they alter plans that are often decades in the making and challenge the financial stability of capital-intensive multi-generational family farm operations, says the Canadian Federation of Agriculture (CFA).
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Tuesday will be an allotted day.
- Wednesday will be the vote on the Ways and Means motion No. 26 concerning capital gains.
Committee Updates
- FAAE will meet on Tuesday for a Briefing on the War in Ukraine.
- TRAN will meet on Tuesday to discuss Competition Act and Air Travel in Northern, Rural, and Remote Communities of Canada.
- NDDN will meet on Tuesday to discuss Lack of Housing Availability on or Near Bases for Canadian Armed Forces Members and Their Families.
- PACP will meet on Wednesday to discuss reports on SDTC.
- CIMM will meet on Thursday to discuss Closed Work Permits and Temporary Foreign Workers.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-26, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts.
- Bill C-40, An Act to amend the Criminal Code, to make consequential amendments to other Acts and to repeal a regulation (miscarriage of justice reviews).
Committee Updates
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- Federal Minister of National Defence Bill Blair will be participating in the Global Coalition Against Daesh Foreign Ministers’ Meeting today in Washington, D.C.
- Last Tuesday, the federal government announced it will be increasing the $1 million price cap for insured mortgages to $1.5 million and expanding the eligibility for 30 year mortgage amortizations to first time homebuyers and to anyone purchasing a new build. These reforms will come into effect by December 15th.
- Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland indicated that the federal government is considering banning vehicle software and hardware coming from China and Russia. This comes after the United States announced plans to ban the sale or import of vehicle hardware and software coming from China.
- Last week, Minister of Immigration Mark Miller indicated that the government needs to do better to prevent the misuse of visitor visas by people coming to Canada. Miller indicated that visa applications from India could face more scrutiny in the future.
- Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly announced that Canada will be hosting the Ministerial Conference on the Human Dimension of Ukraine’s 10-Point Peace Formula on October 30-31.
- Bloc Quebecois leader Yves François Blanchet has given the federal government an October 29 deadline to pass into law Bill C-319 (An Act to amend the Old Age Security Act) and Bill C-282. If the government does not meet this deadline, he indicated that he will work with opposition parties to bring down the government.
- The Conservative Party of Canada’s non-confidence motion was defeated last Wednesday. Following this, the Conservatives tabled another non-confidence motion last Thursday.
- The Public Health Agency of Canada is investing more than $5 million over five years to fund five Indigenous focused projects aimed at preventing youth dating violence and maltreatment.
- Canada has been named the Country of the Year for Viva Technology 2025, the largest technology event in Europe. The event is scheduled to take place from June 11 to 14, 2025 and reinforces Canada’s reputation as a leader in artificial intelligence.
- French President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the Canada-France Declaration on a Stronger Defence and Security Partnership and the Canada-France Declaration on Artificial Intelligence.
- China has launched an anti-discriminatory investigation against restrictive measures Canada has taken on Chinese steel, aluminum, and electric vehicles.
- The federal government announced that it will be providing $1.7 million to help Federal Solutions Inc. accelerate the commercialization of its innovative jet engine component manufacturing process.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
What We’re Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Will There One Day Be No Confidence? – Since the dissolution of the supply and confidence agreement earlier this month, the name calling and finger pointing in the House of Commons continues to be a defining theme of the fall session. While a snap election before the Christmas break seems unlikely, there remains a reasonable degree of uncertainty on parliament hill.
Last week, the CPC introduced (and lost) their first motion of no confidence, and intend to move another this week. For the time being, the Bloc Québécois has indicated they will not support efforts by the CPC to force an election, so long as the Trudeau government passes two of its private member’s bills focused on providing support for seniors and protecting supply management by October 29th.
With that deadline fast approaching, the Bloc will use their opposition day this week to force the Liberals to show their hand. As the Trudeau government fights for survival, chances are good they will meet the Bloc’s demands to prevent an early election call.
A Revival in the Big Apple – After spending much of the summer criss-crossing the country to hear the concerns of Canadians, the Prime Minister headed back to the global stage last week. He travelled to New York City to meet with world leaders and attend the 78th gathering of the United Nations General Assembly.
In a nod to the sunny ways of 2015, Trudeau also made an appearance on the The Late Show with Stephen Colbert for a softball interview. During all of his engagements, Trudeau appeared energized and spoke of Canada’s leadership on issues of international security, human rights and climate change.
While the Prime Minister continues to be a sought-after figure on the global stage, low domestic polling numbers and the constant threat of non confidence votes in the House of Commons await at home. Reviving his image through a compelling international presence is more challenging when an election could happen at a moment’s notice.
Provincial playbook – Voters in British Columbia will head to the polls on October 19th and there’s a close two-way race playing out between the BC NDP and the fledgling BC Conservatives.
With just over three weeks left on the clock, campaign announcements from the parties have been steadily rolling out the door. The focus has been on hot button topics like housing, affordability, addiction and recovery, and healthcare.
It should come as no surprise that the issues on the hustings in BC closely mirror the concerns Canadians have at the federal level. It is reasonable to assume that federal political parties will be monitoring the results of next month’s election closely to see which policies resonate with voters, in the hopes they can fine tune their own political playbooks.
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