Break-ups Before By-elections
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 6 minute read
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Liberal Last Stand – As Parliament returns and Liberal MPs emerge from their caucus retreat, they face a fragile minority and uncertain future. They now must deliver tangible results quickly, focusing on affordability and in key areas like housing, job creation, and healthcare (in all its forms). Managing affordability while demonstrating fiscal balance is critical. By investing in Canada’s future—from EVs to childcare to lowering grocery prices—they must offer a positive alternative to the Conservatives while highlighting Canada’s already strong and improving fiscal position among its G20 peers. Expect messaging to reinforce this while highlighting new programs to deliver rapid, positive change. As they attempt to position themselves as a mature, competent voice in Parliament, finding allies across the floor to move priorities forward may be their biggest political challenge.
Election Roulette – The NDP’s decision to end the confidence and supply agreement with the Liberals did not only turn heads in Ottawa, it may have set off alarm bells in some provincial capitals. With fall elections scheduled in BC and Saskatchewan, BC NDP Premier David Eby and Saskatchewan NDP opposition leader Carla Beck have plenty of reasons for Jagmeet Singh to avoid an election. At the same time, Progressive Conservative premiers Doug Ford (Ontario) and Tim Houston (Nova Scotia) are said to be considering calling early elections to take advantage of Prime Minister Trudeau’s unpopularity. The end of the confidence and supply agreement introduces a new level of unpredictability when it comes to federal election timing. As a result, Ford and Houston may feel more pressure to call an election even sooner than planned in the hopes of getting out ahead of the federal government.
Staying the Course – Three months shy of the Liberals losing the coveted riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s, voters will head to the polls in Montreal and Winnipeg today. Over 11,000 people cast their ballots during advanced voting for the by-election of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun; the Montreal riding held by former Liberal justice minister David Lametti from 2015. Meanwhile, the race in Elmwood—Transcona, Winnipeg, is shaping up to be a tight race between the Conservatives and New Democrats; a seat the New Democrats have held for 10 of 11 elections since the late 80’s. As apprehension rises about a potential repeat of the Toronto—St. Paul’s loss in Montreal, Trudeau’s Liberals face this crucial test while many call for his exit and while the Bloc trail close behind in the polls. Unwavering, the prime minister affirmed he will not resign if his party loses in Montreal.
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