I Spy a Summer Recess
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
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Under Pressure – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be feeling the pressure at the upcoming NATO summit in Washington D.C. as he looks to reassure allies that Canada remains a reliable partner in the face of increased criticism of its lackluster defence spending.
Canada is the only country of the 32 member nations that has not articulated a plan to invest at least two per cent of gross domestic product in its armed forces by the end of this decade, and other alliance members have taken notice. While the summit would provide an ideal opportunity for Canada to make a splash and announce an increase in overall defence funding, history has shown that it is much more likely that the government will opt for some minor budgetary tinkering that still leaves Canada well below the two percent goal.
The Bellwether of the Ball – Advanced voting began on Friday in Toronto–St-Paul’s for the by-election on June 24th. The riding has been a Liberal stronghold since 1993; however, at the moment, the riding is broadly considered a toss-up. The Liberals, anticipating the braying of ‘bellwether-riding alarmism,’ have campaigned in full force. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and more than a dozen ministers have already marched through the riding which is a sign that Trudeau’s low approval ratings and local issues are making the Conservatives a real threat. As for whether the riding will become a “bellwether” next Monday, the closeness of the race has already demonstrated that no riding is safe for the Liberals in the next election.
Running Interference – The Ottawa political bubble remains fixated on whether Liberals and Conservatives are running interference on national security concerns regarding foreign meddling in Canadian politics. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has resisted offers to get his security clearance in order to view classified versions of intelligence, calling into question his party’s commitment to address allegations or interference. The National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP) released a redacted report alleging that some MPs were “semi-witting or witting” participants in efforts of foreign states to interfere in Canadian politics. Top intelligence officials said last week that secrecy rules would not prevent leaders from acting on the information. Green Party leader Elizabeth May and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh have both reviewed the documents, but they have shared conflicting reactions to the severity of the information in the report. The issue may not have permeated outside the Ottawa bubble yet, but the question remains – what, if anything, will the federal government, parliamentarians or law enforcement do about the allegations that NSICOP has made public?
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