Road Trips, and Points of Interest
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 6 minute read
- The Bank of Canada is expected to release its overnight rate target on Wednesday of this week.
- Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s call for a summer gas tax holiday became a topic of heated debate in the House of Commons last week, with the Conservatives and Liberals arguing over how much the proposal would actually save Canadian families.
- Donald Trump, who is expected to lead the Republicans into the next U.S. election, was found guilty last Thursday on all 34 counts in his criminal hush money trial. The Prime Minister’s Office did not provide an immediate comment on the verdict, while Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly only stated that Canada will work with whoever leads the U.S. after this fall’s election.
- Months before British Columbia sought to scale back its drug decriminalization pilot project, the federal government’s own polling suggested that a majority of Canadians believed the policy would lead to an increase in overdoses. The results of the survey by the Privy Council Office also suggested Canadians were split over whether decriminalization would make their community safer.
- Carbon Price Fixing? It turns out the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s complex computer code had actually included the federal industrial carbon pricing when it wasn’t supposed to. The PBO quietly updated a section of its website in mid-April to fix the error and retroactively added a note to its previously published reports. It will take until the fall to rerun all the PBO’s modelling and come up with corrected numbers.
- Two Newfoundland and Labrador cabinet ministers said last Thursday the province will take the federal government to court to try to push a change in the equalization formula, arguing the province is being cut out of potentially billions of dollars in the long term.
- The Canadian economy managed to keep growing in the first quarter, but at a slower pace than first expected, Statistics Canada said last Friday. StatsCan reported that the GDP grew at an annualized pace of 1.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2024.
- Former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is concerned about investment levels in Canada’s private sector and says investment has been dampened by higher government spending and volatility due to U.S. trade relations.
- Housing immigration detainees in federal prisons is a temporary measure. Border enforcement officials will modify their own facilities to accommodate “high-risk” detainees, says Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who also said that the CBSA will use an area of penitentiaries “independently and separately” from Correctional Service Canada areas.
- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau defended withholding secret Cabinet documents requested by the commissioner leading the foreign interference inquiry, arguing his government has already shared enough information with Judge Marie-Josée Hogue.
- The federal Liberal government learned last Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can’t support it, amid criticism over securing pensions for dozens of MPs.
- Ontario Premier Doug Ford was in hot water last week, following comments some suggested linked immigrants to a shooting at a Jewish school in Toronto. Ford’s office later sought to clarify the comments following media and opposition backlash.
- A new survey by Abacus Data found 37 per cent of respondents think a world war will “maybe” break out within the next five to 10 years. Another 21 per cent said such a war is “probably” going to occur. Meanwhile, a majority — 55 per cent — of respondents to the survey said they are “not at all confident” Canada is ready to fight a war within the next 10 years.
- Defence Minister Bill Blair came to the country’s largest defence industry trade show last Wednesday to announce billions of dollars in training and equipment deals for the armed forces, but faced continued questions about Canada’s commitment to the NATO spending target.
- Deputy Speaker Chris d’Entremont says he did not approve an advertisement for a Conservative party event that led the NDP to accuse him of partisanship. The NDP said an advertisement for a party event featuring a photo of d’Entremont in his official robes violates the neutrality of his office.
- The effort to oust the House Speaker Fergus failed by a vote of 142-168 after the NDP sided with the Liberals, with both accusing the Conservatives of undermining democracy and its independent institutions. This is the third time in less than eight months that the Conservatives have called on him to step down (with some support for doing so alongside the Bloc Quebecois).
- Tens of thousands of Canadians are emigrating from Canada to the United States and the number of people packing up and moving south has hit a level not seen in 10 years or more, according to data compiled by CBC News.
- Bill C-64, an Act respecting pharmacare, will begin debate on third reading today.
- Tuesday and Thursday will be designated allotted days.
- Bill C-61, an Act respecting water, source water, drinking water, wastewater and related infrastructure on First Nation lands, sits at second reading on Wednesday.
- Bill C-20, an Act establishing the Public Complaints and Review Commission and amending certain Acts and statutory instruments, sits at report stage.
- Bill C-40, an Act to amend the Criminal Code, to make consequential amendments to other Acts and to repeal a regulation (miscarriage of justice reviews), finished committee consideration at the House of Commons.
Committee Updates
- FINA will meet today to discuss Bill C-69, Budget Implementation Act, 2024, No. 1.
- HUMA will meet today to discuss Federal Housing Investments.
- NDDN will meet today to discuss Space Defence and Review of the Impact of Canada’s Procurement Process on the Canadian Armed Forces.
- INAN will meet today to discuss the Main Estimates. Minister Patty Hajdu, Minister Dominic LeBlanc, and Minister Sean Fraser will attend the meeting.
- DEDC will meet tomorrow to discuss the declaration of Emergency in Feb 2022.
- ETHI will meet tomorrow to discuss Compliance of a Minister to the Conflict-of-Interest Act. Minister Randy Boissonnault will attend the meeting.
- CIIT will meet tomorrow to discuss Free Trade Negotiations Between Canada and Ecuador, and 2026 CUSMA Review. The Canadian Trucking Alliance will attend the meeting.
- Bill C-69, Budget Implementation Act, 2024, No. 1, sits at Senate pre-study.
- Bill C-50, Canadian Sustainable Jobs Act, sits at Consideration in committee at the Senate.
- Bill C-58, an Act to amend the Canada Labour Code and the Canada Industrial Relations Board Regulations, 2012, sits at second reading in the Senate.
- Bill C-59, Fall Economic Statement Implementation Act, 2023, sits at second reading in the Senate.
Committee Updates
- The first 16 of the air force’s new F-35 fighters will be paid for out of the current federal budget, even though Canada isn’t expected to take delivery until 2026. Defence Minister Bill Blair pointed to the investment on Monday while defending the Liberal government’s military spending plans before a House of Commons committee.
- A core Liberal policy introduced to protect Canada’s elections has been criticized again for failing to alert Canadians to the foreign interference it observed in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. In a recent report, the National Security and Intelligence Review Agency (NSIRA) criticized the Critical Election Incident Public Protocol Panel, calling it “not adequately designed.”
- Premier Blaine Higgs says he will ban a Quebec-based sex education group from presenting at high schools in New Brunswick after a presentation he believes was “clearly inappropriate.” The premier took to X (formerly known as Twitter) to express his displeasure.
- Pride groups and some health-care providers are harshly criticizing the Alberta government’s latest attempt to get feedback on its proposed gender identity policies — an invitation-only consultation that required participants to sign a non-disclosure agreement.
- At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a multi-million dollar funding commitment to build a vaccine plant in Montreal to churn out Canadian-made COVID-19 shots by the end of 2020. Four years later, not a single vial of usable vaccine has rolled off the line.
- A massive new Toronto vaccine factory, tasked with making flu shots and preparing for the next pandemic, won’t start producing shots until 2027. The news came last Thursday as the company, Sanofi, announced the opening of a separate vaccine factory in Toronto, which is billed as the largest in Canada. Sanofi will invest at least $79 million a year in Canada’s research and development sector.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- British Columbia’s minimum wage climbed above $17 per hour last Saturday. The B.C. government passed legislation in February to automatically increase the minimum wage annually based on the rate of inflation. The June 1 jump saw the minimum hourly wage increased by 3.9 per cent, going from $16.75 to $17.40 per hour.
- With summer fast approaching, B.C. government officials held a press conference last Friday morning as they prepare for wildfire season. Environment Canada meteorologist Armel Castellan shed light on weather projections for the coming months: the national weather agency is depicting a hot summer with a “high probability” of above normal temperatures, especially for B.C.’s Interior.
- A judge has certified a class-action lawsuit alleging destruction in the November 2021 atmospheric river flooding in the Fraser Valley was magnified by improper operations of a pump station. B.C. Supreme Court Justice S. Dev Dley says the lawsuit’s allegations against the City of Abbotsford potentially affected a significant number of people in the nearby Sumas Prairie area.
- Delta, B.C., Mayor and Metro Vancouver board chair George Harvie says he won’t travel to Amsterdam, where he was to learn about urban drainage and flooding mitigation approaches meant to benefit the region, because of recent attention over his role on Delta council and travel expenses.
- The British Columbia government says a new online “hub” will speed up building permit processes across jurisdictions. Premier David Eby says “slow and complicated” building permit processes have delayed housing development at a time when it’s urgently needed.
- The so-called “willfully blind” parents of an Okanagan sexual predator could be partially on the hook for their adult son’s misdeeds, according to a lawsuit filed by the B.C. government this week.
- A legislative sitting in Alberta that analysts say was defined by a provincial government set on expanding its powers ended last Wednesday afternoon with limited debate times on some of the most controversial bills. Destined to become law is a bill that allows the United Conservative Party government to divide Alberta Health Services into four organizations, and a bill to create a Crown corporation that will research the province’s approach to addictions and mental health.
- The Grande Prairie Recovery Community in Alberta, a long-term treatment facility for addiction and mental health challenges, is set to open in 2027. The facility will have 50 long-term treatment beds that clients can stay in for up to a year to access counselling, opioid agonist treatment medications and support for skill development, employment, financial aid, and housing.
- The Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation (STF) says its members have voted to reject the latest collective agreement offer from the province. The STF confirmed the result last Thursday evening, saying 88 per cent of its member teachers voted with 55 per cent of those voters rejecting the contract.
- An email from 2016 detailing the day Saskatchewan MLA Jeremy Harrison reportedly brought a gun into the legislative building shows that security were unaware of the former Government House Leader’s Saskatchewan’s visit.
- The Manitoba government promised new money last Wednesday to fight a spike in violence and retail theft that has seen workers in some cases assaulted and injured. The province will fund overtime pay for four police units with the Winnipeg Police Service to target “hot spots” such as retail stores and restaurants, Justice Minister Matt Wiebe said.
- Fuel is flowing for the first time in more than two months through a pipeline that supplies gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel to the Winnipeg region. The Manitoba government says Imperial Oil has safely restored service to one of two fuel lines that were shut down in March due to what the company called “integrity concerns” in a section south of Winnipeg.
- Ontario students will soon be required to pass a financial literacy test as part of a number of changes coming to the requirements needed to earn a high school diploma. Education Minister Stephen Lecce said students will learn home economics such as managing a household budget and how to protect themselves against financial fraud.
- If Premier Doug Ford decides to call an early election, political strategists say he’ll need to give Ontario voters a compelling reason for why he’s sending them to the polls ahead of schedule. Over the past week, Ford has not ruled out calling an election before his government’s four-year mandate expires in June 2026.
- An arbitrator has awarded Ontario’s elementary teachers a raise of nearly 12 per cent over the course of its four-year deal with the province. The Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario says the Arbitration Board awarded its 80,000 teachers increases of three per cent for the first two years of the agreement that begins from 2022 to 2023.
- Five more Ontario school boards and two private schools have joined multiple ongoing lawsuits against some of the world’s largest social media companies, arguing their products have negatively rewired the way children think, behave and learn.
- Hydro-Québec announced last Thursday that it will begin constructing and operating wind farms, an activity that had previously been reserved for the private sector. The Crown corporation aims to add 10,000 megawatts of new wind capacity to its network by 2035.
- Quebec says it plans to deploy 20 new “liaison officers” to better monitor people found not criminally responsible on account of mental disorders. Last Thursday, Public Security Minister François Bonnardel tabled Bill 66, his response to the recent murders he describes as “random,” including that of Sûreté du Québec (SQ) officer Maureen Breau.
- Visual effects and animation studios are sounding the alarm over impending tax credit cuts by the Quebec government which, they say, will put the province’s status as an industry leader in jeopardy.
- Many residents in southwestern Quebec are still in shock after a tornado touched down near the Ontario border, uprooting trees and damaging homes in its wake. Environment Canada confirmed “the first tornado of the season” in Quebec occurred near Rigaud around 5:30 p.m. last Monday during powerful spring thunderstorms.
- Reclusive Quebec billionaire Robert G. Miller, who allegedly paid several young girls in exchange for sexual favours, was arrested last Thursday afternoon and faces 21 charges, including sexual assault, obtaining sexual services for consideration, and several counts of sexual exploitation of minors.
- Tensions are rising between Canada and France over fishing quotas for halibut, a valuable groundfish that migrates across the jurisdictions of both countries. Fisheries and Oceans said in a statement last Friday it is aware of vessels from Saint Pierre and Miquelon as well as the Faroe Islands taking part in recent fishing activity for Atlantic halibut adjacent to Canadian fisheries waters.
- A new health-care facility in Pugwash, N.S., will officially open its doors in June. According to a news release from the province, the North Cumberland Health Care Centre will launch on June 10. It will replace the North Cumberland Memorial Hospital, which opened in 1966. The new centre cost $25.5 million and took three years to build.
- The 22-year-old leader of a group protesting changes to P.E.I.’s immigration rules says he’s lost almost 15 pounds since he and other immigrants started a hunger strike outside the provincial legislature a week ago.
- Newfoundland Power and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro are voicing concern with a recent act of vandalism and theft at the Western Avalon Terminal Station in Chapel Arm. Vandals recently broke into the substation where both utilities have electrical equipment by cutting through the fence and stealing copper grounding wire connected to energized high-voltage equipment.
- New Brunswick’s youth and child advocate, Kelly Lamrock, has denounced the province’s practice of reducing school hours for high-needs children without providing more support, calling the practice “illegal.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Dollar Bills – After months of Conservative resistance, the Liberals have finally squeezed Bill C-59 (2023 Fall Economic Statement) through the House and accelerated Bill C-69 (Budget Implementation Act) towards Royal Assent. With the BIA’s passage, Canada’s Housing Plan would allow provinces and territories to access major funding for housing.
The Liberals’ to-do list remains lengthy, with key bills still stuck in the queue: the Online Harms Act (C-63), the Digital Charter Implementation Act (C-27), Pharmacare Act (C-64) and the Strengthening the Port System and Railway Safety in Canada Act (C-33), to name a few.
And in case that isn’t enough finance focus for you, Mark Carney (former Governor of the Bank of Canada and oft-rumoured Liberal leadership candidate) has been called by the Conservatives to testify at the House Finance Committee before the House rises.
With three weeks left in the session, the focus is likely to remain on affordability and money-moving legislation until MP’s and Senators head home for the summer.
Ford More Years? – Last week, Ontario Premier Doug Ford dropped a few not-so-subtle hints suggesting Ontarians could go to an election before the anticipated June 2026 timeline.
There may be merit to that given how things are currently lining up both in Ontario, and federally.
While not without their slip ups and issues to manage, recent announcements from the Ford Government are playing well with voters in the province. A seemingly steady hand and a now-veteran premier at the table, Ford would still be re-elected with a likely majority were an election held today, according to recent polls. Ford could also capitalize on the unpopularity of Liberal Prime Minister Trudeau, and a currently ill-prepared Ontario Liberal and NDP opposition. He may also want to get ahead of a potential change in federal government, considering the province’s history of electing opposing governments federally and provincially.
While some would see an early election call as self-serving, and perhaps without clear rationale for voters, seizing another majority mandate may prove too attractive an opportunity for Ford to pass up. If this does come to fruition, Ford will need to make a clear pitch should he call on Ontarians to re-elect him earlier than expected.
On the Defence – When it comes to the country’s defence policy and operations, the shuffling of senior officials is as significant as the shuffling of ministers. With several key decision-makers heading for retirement over the summer and fall, there’s considerable upheaval at the Department of National Defence and within the Canadian Armed Forces.
Former Deputy Minister Bill Mathews starts his new role today as Secretary of the Treasury Board, which could bring greater scrutiny on defence spending. Stefanie Beck is taking over at National Defence, on the heels of the recent defence policy refresh and heading into what is expected to be a charged NATO Summit in July. Another major gap at DND will be replacing Troy Crosby (ADM), who currently manages major acquisitions and procurements for the department.
On the CAF side, Chief of Defence Staff Gen Wayne Eyre is departing, creating a domino effect at other levels of military leadership. The replacement process is underway and should conclude in the months ahead.
While massive change can create new opportunities, it can also create decision paralysis. The government will have to balance the learning curve of new officials and leaders against demands from Canadians and the international community to do more on the defence and security file.
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