Road Trips, and Points of Interest
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 6 minute read
The Latest
Top stories driving the news this week.
- The Bank of Canada is expected to release its overnight rate target on Wednesday of this week.
- Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s call for a summer gas tax holiday became a topic of heated debate in the House of Commons last week, with the Conservatives and Liberals arguing over how much the proposal would actually save Canadian families.
- Donald Trump, who is expected to lead the Republicans into the next U.S. election, was found guilty last Thursday on all 34 counts in his criminal hush money trial. The Prime Minister’s Office did not provide an immediate comment on the verdict, while Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly only stated that Canada will work with whoever leads the U.S. after this fall’s election.
- Months before British Columbia sought to scale back its drug decriminalization pilot project, the federal government’s own polling suggested that a majority of Canadians believed the policy would lead to an increase in overdoses. The results of the survey by the Privy Council Office also suggested Canadians were split over whether decriminalization would make their community safer.
- Carbon Price Fixing? It turns out the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s complex computer code had actually included the federal industrial carbon pricing when it wasn’t supposed to. The PBO quietly updated a section of its website in mid-April to fix the error and retroactively added a note to its previously published reports. It will take until the fall to rerun all the PBO’s modelling and come up with corrected numbers.
- Two Newfoundland and Labrador cabinet ministers said last Thursday the province will take the federal government to court to try to push a change in the equalization formula, arguing the province is being cut out of potentially billions of dollars in the long term.
- The Canadian economy managed to keep growing in the first quarter, but at a slower pace than first expected, Statistics Canada said last Friday. StatsCan reported that the GDP grew at an annualized pace of 1.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2024.
- Former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is concerned about investment levels in Canada’s private sector and says investment has been dampened by higher government spending and volatility due to U.S. trade relations.
- Housing immigration detainees in federal prisons is a temporary measure. Border enforcement officials will modify their own facilities to accommodate “high-risk” detainees, says Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who also said that the CBSA will use an area of penitentiaries “independently and separately” from Correctional Service Canada areas.
- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau defended withholding secret Cabinet documents requested by the commissioner leading the foreign interference inquiry, arguing his government has already shared enough information with Judge Marie-Josée Hogue.
- The federal Liberal government learned last Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can’t support it, amid criticism over securing pensions for dozens of MPs.
- Ontario Premier Doug Ford was in hot water last week, following comments some suggested linked immigrants to a shooting at a Jewish school in Toronto. Ford’s office later sought to clarify the comments following media and opposition backlash.
- A new survey by Abacus Data found 37 per cent of respondents think a world war will “maybe” break out within the next five to 10 years. Another 21 per cent said such a war is “probably” going to occur. Meanwhile, a majority — 55 per cent — of respondents to the survey said they are “not at all confident” Canada is ready to fight a war within the next 10 years.
- Defence Minister Bill Blair came to the country’s largest defence industry trade show last Wednesday to announce billions of dollars in training and equipment deals for the armed forces, but faced continued questions about Canada’s commitment to the NATO spending target.
- Deputy Speaker Chris d’Entremont says he did not approve an advertisement for a Conservative party event that led the NDP to accuse him of partisanship. The NDP said an advertisement for a party event featuring a photo of d’Entremont in his official robes violates the neutrality of his office.
- The effort to oust the House Speaker Fergus failed by a vote of 142-168 after the NDP sided with the Liberals, with both accusing the Conservatives of undermining democracy and its independent institutions. This is the third time in less than eight months that the Conservatives have called on him to step down (with some support for doing so alongside the Bloc Quebecois).
- Tens of thousands of Canadians are emigrating from Canada to the United States and the number of people packing up and moving south has hit a level not seen in 10 years or more, according to data compiled by CBC News.
In the House
Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
- Bill C-64, an Act respecting pharmacare, will begin debate on third reading today.
- Tuesday and Thursday will be designated allotted days.
- Bill C-61, an Act respecting water, source water, drinking water, wastewater and related infrastructure on First Nation lands, sits at second reading on Wednesday.
- Bill C-20, an Act establishing the Public Complaints and Review Commission and amending certain Acts and statutory instruments, sits at report stage.
- Bill C-40, an Act to amend the Criminal Code, to make consequential amendments to other Acts and to repeal a regulation (miscarriage of justice reviews), finished committee consideration at the House of Commons.
Committee Updates
- FINA will meet today to discuss Bill C-69, Budget Implementation Act, 2024, No. 1.
- HUMA will meet today to discuss Federal Housing Investments.
- NDDN will meet today to discuss Space Defence and Review of the Impact of Canada’s Procurement Process on the Canadian Armed Forces.
- INAN will meet today to discuss the Main Estimates. Minister Patty Hajdu, Minister Dominic LeBlanc, and Minister Sean Fraser will attend the meeting.
- DEDC will meet tomorrow to discuss the declaration of Emergency in Feb 2022.
- ETHI will meet tomorrow to discuss Compliance of a Minister to the Conflict-of-Interest Act. Minister Randy Boissonnault will attend the meeting.
- CIIT will meet tomorrow to discuss Free Trade Negotiations Between Canada and Ecuador, and 2026 CUSMA Review. The Canadian Trucking Alliance will attend the meeting.
In the Senate
Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
- Bill C-69, Budget Implementation Act, 2024, No. 1, sits at Senate pre-study.
- Bill C-50, Canadian Sustainable Jobs Act, sits at Consideration in committee at the Senate.
- Bill C-58, an Act to amend the Canada Labour Code and the Canada Industrial Relations Board Regulations, 2012, sits at second reading in the Senate.
- Bill C-59, Fall Economic Statement Implementation Act, 2023, sits at second reading in the Senate.
Committee Updates
In Case You Missed It
Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
- The first 16 of the air force’s new F-35 fighters will be paid for out of the current federal budget, even though Canada isn’t expected to take delivery until 2026. Defence Minister Bill Blair pointed to the investment on Monday while defending the Liberal government’s military spending plans before a House of Commons committee.
- A core Liberal policy introduced to protect Canada’s elections has been criticized again for failing to alert Canadians to the foreign interference it observed in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. In a recent report, the National Security and Intelligence Review Agency (NSIRA) criticized the Critical Election Incident Public Protocol Panel, calling it “not adequately designed.”
- Premier Blaine Higgs says he will ban a Quebec-based sex education group from presenting at high schools in New Brunswick after a presentation he believes was “clearly inappropriate.” The premier took to X (formerly known as Twitter) to express his displeasure.
- Pride groups and some health-care providers are harshly criticizing the Alberta government’s latest attempt to get feedback on its proposed gender identity policies — an invitation-only consultation that required participants to sign a non-disclosure agreement.
- At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a multi-million dollar funding commitment to build a vaccine plant in Montreal to churn out Canadian-made COVID-19 shots by the end of 2020. Four years later, not a single vial of usable vaccine has rolled off the line.
- A massive new Toronto vaccine factory, tasked with making flu shots and preparing for the next pandemic, won’t start producing shots until 2027. The news came last Thursday as the company, Sanofi, announced the opening of a separate vaccine factory in Toronto, which is billed as the largest in Canada. Sanofi will invest at least $79 million a year in Canada’s research and development sector.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
What We’re Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Dollar Bills – After months of Conservative resistance, the Liberals have finally squeezed Bill C-59 (2023 Fall Economic Statement) through the House and accelerated Bill C-69 (Budget Implementation Act) towards Royal Assent. With the BIA’s passage, Canada’s Housing Plan would allow provinces and territories to access major funding for housing.
The Liberals’ to-do list remains lengthy, with key bills still stuck in the queue: the Online Harms Act (C-63), the Digital Charter Implementation Act (C-27), Pharmacare Act (C-64) and the Strengthening the Port System and Railway Safety in Canada Act (C-33), to name a few.
And in case that isn’t enough finance focus for you, Mark Carney (former Governor of the Bank of Canada and oft-rumoured Liberal leadership candidate) has been called by the Conservatives to testify at the House Finance Committee before the House rises.
With three weeks left in the session, the focus is likely to remain on affordability and money-moving legislation until MP’s and Senators head home for the summer.
Ford More Years? – Last week, Ontario Premier Doug Ford dropped a few not-so-subtle hints suggesting Ontarians could go to an election before the anticipated June 2026 timeline.
There may be merit to that given how things are currently lining up both in Ontario, and federally.
While not without their slip ups and issues to manage, recent announcements from the Ford Government are playing well with voters in the province. A seemingly steady hand and a now-veteran premier at the table, Ford would still be re-elected with a likely majority were an election held today, according to recent polls. Ford could also capitalize on the unpopularity of Liberal Prime Minister Trudeau, and a currently ill-prepared Ontario Liberal and NDP opposition. He may also want to get ahead of a potential change in federal government, considering the province’s history of electing opposing governments federally and provincially.
While some would see an early election call as self-serving, and perhaps without clear rationale for voters, seizing another majority mandate may prove too attractive an opportunity for Ford to pass up. If this does come to fruition, Ford will need to make a clear pitch should he call on Ontarians to re-elect him earlier than expected.
On the Defence – When it comes to the country’s defence policy and operations, the shuffling of senior officials is as significant as the shuffling of ministers. With several key decision-makers heading for retirement over the summer and fall, there’s considerable upheaval at the Department of National Defence and within the Canadian Armed Forces.
Former Deputy Minister Bill Mathews starts his new role today as Secretary of the Treasury Board, which could bring greater scrutiny on defence spending. Stefanie Beck is taking over at National Defence, on the heels of the recent defence policy refresh and heading into what is expected to be a charged NATO Summit in July. Another major gap at DND will be replacing Troy Crosby (ADM), who currently manages major acquisitions and procurements for the department.
On the CAF side, Chief of Defence Staff Gen Wayne Eyre is departing, creating a domino effect at other levels of military leadership. The replacement process is underway and should conclude in the months ahead.
While massive change can create new opportunities, it can also create decision paralysis. The government will have to balance the learning curve of new officials and leaders against demands from Canadians and the international community to do more on the defence and security file.
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