Politics, Notwithstanding
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 10 minute read
- Ontario Premier Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservative government emerged victorious in two by-elections held last week. While the PC’s were expected to hold Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, things appeared tighter in the riding of Milton, where analysts anticipated the conflict in the Middle East could play a role in the election outcome given the riding’s sizable Muslim population. In the end, PC Candidate Zee Hamid won with a sizable victory over Liberal candidate Galen Naidoo Harris.
- According to last week’s Abacus Data survey, If an election were held today, 44 percent of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals trailing at 23 percent, the NDP at 17 and the Greens at 4. The BQ is at 33 percent in Quebec.
- The public inquiry investigating foreign interference says attempts by other countries to meddle in Canada’s past two elections are a “stain” on this country’s electoral system, but ultimately did not affect which political party formed the government. “Our systems remain sound,” said Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue last Friday. A final report is expected from the Justice before the end of the year.
- A foreign agent registry and changes to Canada’s spy agency could be on the way as the Trudeau government is set to introduce legislation as early as this week to further counter foreign interference. Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc has put a new bill on the House of Commons notice paper entitled An Act respecting countering foreign interference.
- Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s suggestion last week that he would use the notwithstanding clause to push through criminal justice reforms would be a landmark moment in the history of the controversial mechanism, experts say.
- Lobbying is in the spotlight in Ottawa. Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre penned an opinion piece for PostMedia making it clear that corporate Canada and their consultants must convince Canadians of their ideas should they want to influence government policy under his leadership. Meanwhile, Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault’s ties to a lobbyist who was successfully awarded government contracts are facing scrutiny in Question Period (though the government maintains all conflict of interest and ethics rules were followed).
- Defence Minister Bill Blair says it’s hard to convince cabinet and Canadians that meeting the NATO spending target is a worthy goal, because “nobody knows what that means.” Instead, he argues that Canada simply must do more to defend itself — and that will require more money.
- Federal procurement is already feeling the blowback from the ArriveCan scandal. As the government grapples with the repercussions of the debacle, industry experts say over-scrutiny in the process will likely slow down business.
- The Bank of Canada is getting closer to cutting interest rates as inflation shows signs of coming down and leveling off, said the Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem to MPs last Thursday. “Our key indicators of inflation have all moved in the right direction,” he said, pointing to data on “core inflation” that strips out more volatile price swings, like food and energy prices.
- Unions representing public servants say they are blindsided and outraged by new rules forcing federal employees to work from the office at least three days a week. The new requirements, which take effect Sept. 9, also stipulate executives will have to be in the office at least four days a week.
- Thousands of railway workers in Canada at Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) have voted overwhelmingly to strike as early as May 22. This could pose significant supply chain challenges both in Canada and the United States.
- Canadian police have arrested members of an alleged hit squad that investigators believe was tasked by the government of India with killing prominent Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey, B.C. last June.
- Bill C-69, an Act to implement certain provisions of the budget tabled in Parliament on April 16, 2024, will begin debate on second reading today.
- Thursday May 9, will be an allotted day.
Committee Updates
- INDU will meet today to discuss Bill C-27.
- HUMA will meet today to discuss Subject Matter of Supplementary Estimates (C), 2023-24. Minister Randy Boissonnault, and Minister Terry Beech will attend the meeting.
- NDDN will meet today to discuss space defence.
- RNNR will meet today to discuss main estimates 2024-25. Minister Jonathan Wilkinson will attend the meeting.
- TRAN will meet tomorrow to discuss the State of Airline Competition in Canada.
- FINA will meet tomorrow to initiate pre-study of Bill C-69, the Budget Implementation Act. Finance officials will appear.
- ACVA will meet on Wednesday to discuss the Main Estimates 2024-25. Minister of Veterans Affairs, Ginette Petitpas Taylor, will attend the meeting.
- INAN will meet on Wednesday to discuss Nutrition North Canada, Minister of Northern Affairs, Dan Vandal, will attend the meeting.
- S-16, an Act respecting the recognition of the Haida Nation, sits at third reading.
- C-59, an Act to implement certain provisions of the fall economic statement, sits at Senate pre-study. It recently made its way through clause by clause at Finance Committee in the House.
- C-50, an Act respecting Canadian Sustainable Jobs, sits at second reading.
- S-15, an Act to amend the Criminal Code and the Wild Animal and Plant Protection and Regulation of International and Interprovincial Trade Act, sits under consideration in committee.
Committee Updates
- NFFN will meet tomorrow and Wednesday to discuss the Main Estimates for 2024-25.
- TRCM will meet tomorrow to discuss Bill C-288, an Act to amend the Telecommunications Act.
- ENEV will meet tomorrow to discuss Bill C-248, an Act to amend the Canada National Parks Act.
- AEFA will meet on Wednesday and Thursday to report on Canada’s interests and engagement in Africa.
- NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said last week that his party will support the federal budget, ending any speculation that the party could pull out of its deal with the minority Liberal government. Singh said his party wanted time to digest the budget, but is ultimately voting in favour of it because of shared initiatives.
- It was a heated week in the House of Commons, resulting in the ejection of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre from the Chamber on Tuesday after calling Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government’s policies “wacko.” While Poilievre withdrew and replaced the comment, Speaker Greg Fergus removed him from the House – leading to calls for Fergus to resign on account of overly-partisan behaviour.
- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s latest budget was aimed at making Canadians feel better about their future, but it appears to have made them feel worse about his government, a new poll by Abacus Data suggested. 54 percent of those surveyed said it left them with a more negative feeling about the government, and 20 percent said it had no impact at all.
- The federal government had little choice but to cut a deal with Ontario over Highway 413, or risk another court ruling that would chip away at a key environmental law, said Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault.
- Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said his government “will respond” to the Canada Revenue Agency when it concludes its audit of the province, but his position is that Saskatchewan doesn’t owe Ottawa any money.
- Liberal MP Pam Damoff said she won’t run again in the next federal election, saying she has experienced misogyny, disrespectful dialogue in politics and threats to her life.
Provincial Updates
A look at the top news across the country.
- Former NDP MLA Selina Robinson has accused BC Premier David Eby of “gaslighting” the Jewish community with empty promises to do something about antisemitism. She cited the Premier’s recent note addressed to the Jewish community at Passover as an example of an unfulfilled promise despite commitments to “take action”.
- Federal Mental Health and Addictions Minister Ya’ara Saks said the decision about whether to recriminalize drug use in B.C.’s public spaces needs to be made urgently, but she’s still waiting for more information from the province before making a call.
- Former NDP MLA Selina Robinson launched a bitter attack on Premier David Eby this week, accusing him of “gaslighting” the Jewish community with empty promises to do something about antisemitism. She noted how the premier, in a note addressed to the Jewish community at Passover, listed how the NDP government was “taking action.”
- Pro-Palestinian protesters have set up encampments at two more British Columbia universities, as a wave of demonstrations at North American post-secondary institutions continues to spread. The University of Victoria confirmed last Wednesday that a protest site had been established on campus, saying the school was “taking a calm and thoughtful approach” to minimizing disruptions stemming from the encampment in its quad.
- Property owners in B.C. say new rules aimed at increasing long-term rental supply fail to consider the consequences for smaller mom-and-pop operators, who may stand to suffer significant financial losses. The rules will limit short-term rentals, such as those offered on Airbnb.
- In the wake of significant backlash from mayors and councillors across Alberta, the province is promising amendments to proposed legislation to give itself major new powers over municipalities.
- The Alberta government says it’s taking steps to improve the health of women and children by following through on a promise to spend $26 million on research and expanding a newborn screening program.
- Saskatchewan is to study the implementation of Indigenous-led police services, as an investment to support effective and culturally appropriate police services for Prince Albert Grand Council member communities has been announced.
- The Manitoba government said it’s putting up $5.25 million to help create nearly 50 new social housing units. Two projects creating 46 new units will receive funding in the form of secured, forgivable loans from Manitoba Housing.
- Canada and Manitoba are partnering to launch an alert system that would inform the public when an Indigenous woman or girl goes missing.
- The Ontario PC’s emerged victorious in two by-elections held last week; a hold in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, and a win in tightly contested Milton, where Zee Hamid earned a sizable victory over Liberal candidate Galen Naidoo Harris.
- Ontario is set to clamp down on bad employers with big fines. Labour Minister David Piccini says his government will introduce legislation this week that will see fines increased for violations of the Employment Standards Act.
- Ontario Provincial Police say they are taking their strongest measures yet against impaired driving by requiring a mandatory breath sample from drivers for every traffic stop in the Greater Toronto Area.
- The University of Toronto is warning members of a pro-Palestinian encampment on campus that it has witnessed behaviours that “contravene” its expectations of a peaceful protest, as the demonstration continues with protesters calling for the school to divest from holdings or commercial dealings with Israel.
- Quebec’s school service centres will have to ensure bathrooms and changing rooms newly built or renovated are gender specific rather than gender neutral, according to a new government directive published last Wednesday in the province’s Official Gazette.
- Premier François Legault has accused two opposition parties of condoning the loss of National Assembly powers by voting against the renewal of the Constitution’s notwithstanding clause to shield the state secularism law, Bill 21, from court challenges.
- The National Council of Canadian Muslims (NCCM) and Canadian Civil Liberties Association (CCLA) have filed leave to appeal with the Supreme Court. They are asking Canada’s highest court to pass judgment on Bill 21, Quebec’s controversial religious symbols ban.
- Premier François Legault called for the end to the pro-Palestinian protest encampment on McGill University’s downtown campus in Montreal, saying he expected police to dismantle the tents.
- Nova Scotia Power has filed an application with the province’s Utility and Review Board (UARB) to have ratepayers cover the cost of last year’s storm damage to the tune of $22 million. It’s a request that isn’t sitting well with Premier Tim Houston.
- A new program announced by the Government of Nova Scotia last Thursday will help create more licensed not-for-profit child-care spaces across the province. The Early Learning and Child Care Major Infrastructure Program will spend $20 million on new construction or major renovations.
- A man who was listed as Canada’s most wanted fugitive over a homicide that occurred in Toronto last year has been arrested in the Maritimes. Police in Prince Edward Island said 35-year-old Michael Bebee was taken into custody last Tuesday evening.
- New Brunswick’s Energy and Utilities Board is set to lower the amount consumers can be charged to compensate oil companies for federal clean-fuel regulations, following a review of a formula that has been in place for 10 months.
- The New Brunswick government has delayed a plan to force certain people into addiction treatment. Sherry Wilson, minister of addictions and mental health services, announced that while the Compassionate Intervention Act is still on their agenda, it will not be introduced when the legislature resumes this week.
- A new direct flight from Newfoundland to the United Kingdom is on offer this summer, but government subsidies of the St. John’s-to-London route has one Labrador MHA demanding closer attention to the high cost of travel within the province.
- Newfoundland and Labrador’s provincial health authority says it plans to gradually reduce its use of private agency nurses over the next two years. By April 2026, Health Services said it aims to reduce the number of private health-care staff from 340 today down to 60 people, which health authority CEO David Diamond described as pre-pandemic levels.
What We're Watching
Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.
Working 9 to (?) – Last Monday, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Marc Miller announced that international students will be allowed to work up to 24 hours a week off-campus, starting in September. This decision comes in the wake of new policies impacting international students, and immigration more broadly by the government in recent months. Miller is also proposing to change the asylum claim system which may speed up the deportation process for rejected applicants – though details on that are closely held. Immigration continues to be a hot-button issue for the government, and they appear to be taking a new approach to the file as we march closer to a federal election.
An Exercise in Self-Defence – Minister of Defence Bill Blair is hitting the hustings to promote Our North, Strong and Free: Canada’s new defence policy. Given the policy’s focus on protecting the North, Minister Blair is spending some time in Nunavut and other near-Arctic locations over the coming days. Meanwhile, the House of Commons’ National Defence Committee will be pouring over the policy as part of a new study where the adequacy of defence spending is likely to take centre stage. The government’s defence policy roadshow (and the debate that surrounds it) will continue well into the summer, ahead of the July NATO Summit in Washington D.C.
The Tortured Climate Department – After nearly a decade of Liberal climate action, Canada’s net-zero efforts seem to be defined by new ideas and programs rather than effective implementation. A recent Auditor General report highlighted growing concerns that efforts to decarbonize are failing to attract major polluters to take part in the program. Meanwhile, south of the border, the US Inflation Reduction Act is driving clean-energy investments, exacerbating Canada’s lack of progress on key incentives like clean technology tax credits. With Conservatives promising a carbon tax election, emissions reduction policies are likely to bring both the current Liberal plan, and a yet-unknown Conservative one, into the spotlight.
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