April Budgets bring May…?
Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies
- 5 minute read
Provincial Updates
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A taxing situation – The fallout from the capital gains tax changes in the 2024 budget continues. Some business owners and tech entrepreneurs have raised concerns that the move could stunt innovation at a time when Canada faces significant productivity challenges, while doctors and the Canadian Medical Association claim their retirement savings are at risk. The Liberals have framed the changes as part of a push for a fairer tax system, one which places a larger tax burden on the wealthiest Canadians.
The change was seen by some as a political trap set for the Conservatives. Any opposition to this measure could be a valuable campaign tool for the Liberals, allowing them to frame the Tories as the party of the wealthy business elite. But, so far, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives have not taken the bait. The Liberals may have been looking for a fight to set up a political contrast with the Conservatives, but without a political opponent on the other side, will the contrast work?
Apathy is all around, but no one seems to care – Budget 2024 aimed to ease the affordability crisis, especially for younger Canadians, with targeted policies and billions in new spending. Trailing the Poilievre Conservatives by twenty percentage points, Liberals needed a shot in the arm. Despite extensive efforts put into sending ministers and MPs on pre-budget roadshows, numerous post-budget polls showed the majority of Canadians were either indifferent or disapproving of the budget, resulting in minimal to no overall impact. Trudeau’s leadership will surely continue to face uncertainty leading into the final parliamentary sitting weeks before the summer recess.
Blue-Orange Battlegrounds – Traditionally, when the Liberals are down in the polls, the NDP are up. Not this time. The CPC is gaining traction among traditional orange and red-team supporters. Their party’s stagnation in the polls will naturally factor into the decision of whether New Democrat MPs will reoffer in the next election. So far, 6 out of 25 NDP MPs have elected not to run again. As the NDP stares down the threat of growing CPC support in their ridings, expect their communications to directly target the Tories and Leader Pierre Poilievre, questioning his record of standing up for working Canadians.
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