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They’re Baaaack | Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies

Your Look Ahead from Summa Strategies

  • 5 minute read
The Latest – Top stories driving the news this week.
  • The Foreign Interference Commission will hold public hearings starting today and over the next five days to examine which countries like China, Russia and India may have attempted to meddle in the last two federal elections.
  • The Prime Minister announced that the by-election in Durham, Ontario, will take place on March 4th. Many speculated the by-election in Toronto—St. Paul’s would be held simultaneously to offset a likely Conservative win in the riding previously held by former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole.
  • All eyes are on the Liberal-NDP confidence-and-supply agreement. Anne McGrath has been tasked to oversee it and advance the pharmacare discussions which have become particularly difficult. Electoral reform legislation is also rumoured to be in the mix.
In the House – Key Green Chamber business set to play out.
  • Bill C-27, the Digital Charter Implementation Act, is being considered at INDU committee.
  • Bill C-49, the Act to amend the Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Resources Accord Implementation Act, is being considered at RNNR committee.
  • Bill C-52, the Enhancing Transparency and Accountability in the Transportation System Act, awaits second reading.
  • Bill C-57, the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act, awaits third reading.
  • Bill C-59, the Fall Economic Statement Implementation Act, awaits second reading.

Committee Updates

  • NDDN will meet today to discuss the situation in the Indo-Pacific region. 
  • RNNR will meet today to discuss Bill C-49, the Act to amend the Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Resources Accord Implementation Act. 
  • SECU will meet today for a technical briefing on Bill C-26, an Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act and making consequential amendments to other Acts. 
  • CHPC will meet on Tuesday to discuss the job cuts announced at CBC/Radio-Canada.
In the Senate – Stay informed on events in the Upper Chamber.
  • The Senate session starts on February 6th. 
  • Bill C-241, the Act to amend the Income Tax Act (deduction of travel expenses for tradespersons), awaits third reading. 
  • Bill C-244, An Act to amend the Copyright Act (diagnosis, maintenance and repair), awaits second reading. 

Committee Updates

  • The Senate session starts on February 6th. 
  • TRCM will meet on February 6th to discuss the impacts of climate change on critical infrastructure in the transportation and communications sectors and the consequential impacts on their interdependencies.
In Case You Missed It – Your crib notes for last week’s top stories.
  • The Liberals held their pre-session caucus meeting in an effort to unite the troops who are divided over Justin Trudeau’s leadership and the government position on the United Nations’ International Court of Justice. 
  • Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced that the federal government will cap the number of student permits over the next two years to approximately 364,000 undergraduate study permits for 2024 — a 35 per cent reduction from 2023.
  • Federal Court Justice Richard Mosely ruled that the government’s use of the Emergencies Act was unreasonable and unjustified. The government quickly indicated it would appeal this decision. 
  • The former justice minister David Lametti announced his resignation effective January 31st, vacating the Montreal-area seat of LaSalle-Emard-Verdun.
  • A state funeral was held in Ottawa to honour the life of former NDP leader Ed Broadbent, who died on January 11th at the age of 87.
  • British negotiators walked away from trade talks with Canada, halting the bilateral trade deal between the two nations over how much tariff-free access U.K. producers should have to the Canadian cheese market.

Provincial Updates

A look at the top news across the country.

  • The Trans Mountain expansion project is set to begin operating in the coming weeks. Work is resuming on the final stretch of construction in British Columbia’s Fraser Valley between Chilliwack and Hope.
  • Chief Coroner Lisa Lapointe reported that in the first year of decriminalization of hard drugs, B.C. recorded a 10 per cent increase in overdose deaths. The coroner stated that decriminalization is not responsible for these deaths and called for access to safer drugs.
  • Cannabis activist Dana Larsen, who now operates magic mushroom dispensaries, sent packages to all 87 B.C. MLAs this Christmas. The packages contain a gram of “Golden Teacher” psilocybin mushrooms and a coca leaf, both of which are illegal in Canada.
  • Alberta Premier Danielle Smith will deliver remarks on “Alberta’s Advantage is also a Canadian Advantage,” at a lunch event hosted by the Economic Club of Canada on February 5th. She also shared the stage this week with controversial U.S. commentator Tucker Carlson. 
  • Former Alberta premier Rachel Notley announced she would step down as provincial NDP leader as soon as party members choose her replacement. The party announced that the leadership race will begin on February 5th and conclude on June 22nd.
  • The Alberta Electric System Operator is under scrutiny after it recently urged citizens to limit their power consumption during peak times and warned about the potential for rotating blackouts.
  • The session is scheduled to start on February 20th and it is expected that the government will continue to face questions over the $8.28-billion Greenbelt land swaps and the Ontario Place redevelopment. 
  • Minister of Colleges and Universities Jill Dunlop, announced a moratorium on new public-private college partnerships, amongst several other measures to oversee the approval process of international students in the province. 
  • Progressive Conservative MPP Parm Gill resigned his seat and his cabinet position as minister of red tape reduction to become a candidate for the Conservative Party of Canada in the next election.
  • The anticipated mayoral election in Mississauga could be held on June 10th. The by-election is required following the resignation of Bonnie Crombie who won the Ontario Liberal leadership race. 
  • No major news this week.
  • New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs delivered his annual state of the province address in Fredericton. Voters in New Brunswick are scheduled to head the polls in October, but an election call is expected before then.
  • The City of Halifax is proposing changes to the municipal plan to meet the new housing demand. Meanwhile, some residents want a buyout program for homes heavily damaged in the floods last summer.
  • Derrick Bragg, a cabinet minister in Newfoundland and Labrador’s Liberal government, died at the age of 59 of tongue cancer. He served as minister of municipal affairs and management, transportation, and fisheries, forestry, and agriculture during his eight-year career.

What We're Watching

Find out what issues Summa consultants are tracking and why they matter.

International Student Cap Impact – During last week’s cabinet retreat, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced that the federal government is implementing a temporary two-year cap on new international student permits. Miller said the cap is expected to result in approximately 364,000 approved study permits, a decrease of 35% from 2023. The cap space will be allocated by province, based on population. The floundering Liberals are hoping the ripple effects of this cap will alleviate pressures related to the housing crisis – and perhaps give them a much needed bump in the polls. There will, however, be negative reactions from post-secondary institutions, industries, and communities across Canada who rely on these students as the lifeblood of their local economies.

New year, new challenges ahead – The House is back, and all eyes are on Trudeau’s struggling Liberals. With recent challenges like the Emergencies Act ruling and international student visa caps, the prime minister is aiming to divert media attention away from polls and questions about his leadership by drawing parallels between Pierre Poilievre and Donald Trump. Expect the Conservatives to continue emphasizing that the Liberals are out-of-touch with the financial challenges facing most Canadians. The PM’s recent luxury vacation in Jamaica will be Exhibit A. The NDP, on the other hand, will continue to distance themselves from the Liberals while leveraging the supply and confidence agreement for key legislation like pharmacare. Sit back and grab the popcorn because there will be lots of drama during the winter sitting of the House of Commons.

US Engagement Redux – If it felt like a moment of political déjà vu when the prime minister announced a revamped engagement strategy with the U.S. ahead of the fall presidential election, that was by design. Justin Trudeau wants to recreate that late 2010s nostalgia when accessible voters were united behind the Liberals against the common worry of a Trump presidency. As an added bonus this time around, the prime minister is hoping to paint his chief political opponent as a MAGA sympathizer. Invoking past fights with Trump is a high stakes maneuver and if successful, could help the Liberals regain their political footing. Alternatively, it could set them up for a big fight with the next U.S. administration that could undermine Canadian interests. 

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